Quote from Randy Manese on January 9, 2023, 3:21 pm

While there has been a lot of talk about Grisham and our expectations for him if he remains a Padre, there has hardly been any discussion of what to make of Jake Cronenworth's declining offensive numbers in virtually all categories over the past three years.  Was 2022 an anomaly or could he be headed back to somewhere between what he did in 2020 and 2021?

Looking behind the 2022 numbers the big change in his batting was a huge increase in launch angle (over 6%) that led to a much higher fly ball % (48% - up 12% over 2021 and 19% over 2020) and consequently drops in line drive % (17% - down 5% from 2021 and 8% from 2020) and ground ball % (35% - down 7% from 2021 and 10% from 2020).   These drops coupled with falling barrel % from 10.5%  to 5.6%; hard contact from 42.7% to 33.8%; and average exit velocity from 89.8% to 87.6% have to give one concern about whether Cronenworth has bottomed out/plateaued,  is still on a downward path or can be headed upward.  Please note that there was more swing and miss in his game last year compared to previous years, both outside and inside the strike zone.

Since I am always very optimistic, my take on Cronenworth is that we will see a much better hitter in 2023, possibly exceeding what we saw in 2021.  My reasons for that are several: (1) he was injured coming out of spring training (believe it was hamstring/groin issue) that affected his lower half, particularly since he had to play a position that requires a lot of movement on the diamond; (2) besides Machado, the Padres lineup provided little offense especially without Tatis allowing pitchers to focus more on Cronenworth than in the previous two years; and (3) while it took him 2 months into the season to finally get healthy, when Machado went down in mid-late June, there was also a negative impact on Cronenworth as he followed his best month with one of his worst.

Looking to 2023, what we have to remember and what we like about Cronenworth is his all-out style of play, always hustling, always being in the right place at the right time.  For a second baseman, this is covering a lot of ground and I've noticed that at times he just seems fatigued and needing a day or two off to regain his strength and energy.  If he primarily plays 1b this year (which he did a lot more % wise in 2020 and 2021) and with the DH slot to use for an occasional resting spot off the field, I'm assuming he'll be a lot stronger during the entirety of the year that will help increase his hard hit % and exit velocity.  Further, he will not have the pressure of having to carry the team (at least partially) like he did last and likely be more selective, particularly if he hits in the 2nd slot.  Finally, his BAPIP, at .277 in 2022, was a lot lower than it should be this year (predict closer to .290 - .300) which means he is likely to have a lot of those batted balls fall in the gaps this year than in previous years.  For the above reasons, I think we are going to get a very productive offensive year out of Cronenworth - not a 300 hitter or 25+ HR producer, but one that is bringing runners home and putting pressure on the defense by improving his run game.  I'm hoping for a slash line of 270/350/470 and even contribute close to double digit stolen bases.  Not super for a 1b man but very representative for a valued player on this Padres team.

Quote from Henry Silvestre on January 9, 2023, 6:00 pm

Brandon Belt to Blue Jays 1yr deal

 

Good get for heavy righty team

Quote from BoosterSD on January 9, 2023, 6:03 pm

Quote from Henry Silvestre on January 9, 2023, 6:00 pm

Brandon Belt to Blue Jays 1yr deal

 

Good get for heavy righty team

Not for $9.3M, what an overpay for a guy that had an OPS+ of 92 and 8 HRs. And hasnt played in 100 games since 2019.

If TOR is this dumb with their money, maybe they will take Pomeranz too??

Quote from BoosterSD on January 9, 2023, 6:14 pm

If TOR is making stupid deals, how about Biggio for Pomeranz straight up?

Quote from Jeremy Hill on January 9, 2023, 9:53 pm

Belt is supposedly feeling good after getting his knee cleaned up. If it holds up that could be a good deal. Only Soto and Winker were better against righties from 2020-2021. Toronto clearly wanted to add lefty bats this off-season. Belt was the only one left on the market that could potentially make a real impact. I don't know that I would want to bet on that knee, but maybe he'll do better getting most of his ABs as a DH. It's a reasonable gamble though he did get more than I thought he would.

Quote from Henry Silvestre on January 10, 2023, 2:01 am

Cueto to Marlins

Quote from fenn68 on January 10, 2023, 2:12 am

Quote from Henry Silvestre on January 10, 2023, 2:01 am

Cueto to Marlins

It will be interesting to see the money for a one year deal.

Given MIA was already willing to deal SP … this signing should make them dealing even more probable (to some team).

Quote from fenn68 on January 10, 2023, 3:12 am

Trying to figure what MIA will want for one of its SP. Given they signed veteran Segura on a 2 year deal and now veteran Cueto … “prospects” probably are not what motivates them. Then OF seems the area of biggest need.

Looking at their 40 man … it is at 40 … probably don’t want a ton of 40 man roster types in return. Plus they are loaded with pitching prospects … one, Perez, one of the best prospects in MLB and near ML ready and another, Garrett, ML ready. However, thin on position player prospects. So, likely any return for one of their SP needs to focus on position players … pitching probably does not move the needle.

Additionally the bench / AAA for position players is very thin … so very unlikely to deal any quality position player off the 26 man (thinking Berti / Cooper). However, if getting an OF in the deal … they may push for some team to take Solar / Garcia to clear some under performers with big contracts … that would be a non-starter for the Padres given payroll (CB T penalty) concerns.

Sort of looks as though the only trade chip for the Padres that fits MIA needs is Grisham where they have a real need for a ML quality CF in 2023 since they appear to be positioning to at least to be relevant in the playoff race.

As I said before a Grisham - Luzardo deal is pretty balanced in salary - control - WAR projection … but IF the Padres see enough 2023 projection in Severino (C), Dahl (OF), Schrock (INF) and the rostered bench pieces … maybe the deal gets bigger and Campusano / Rosario could go to MIA for a bigger return (thinking a quality SP prospect or two in addition to Luzardo). Would be a move to set-up 2024 with only Musgrove guarenteed to return as a SP.

Quote from Henry Silvestre on January 10, 2023, 6:03 am

Quote from fenn68 on January 10, 2023, 3:12 am

Trying to figure what MIA will want for one of its SP. Given they signed veteran Segura on a 2 year deal and now veteran Cueto … “prospects” probably are not what motivates them. Then OF seems the area of biggest need.

Looking at their 40 man … it is at 40 … probably don’t want a ton of 40 man roster types in return. Plus they are loaded with pitching prospects … one, Perez, one of the best prospects in MLB and near ML ready and another, Garrett, ML ready. However, thin on position player prospects. So, likely any return for one of their SP needs to focus on position players … pitching probably does not move the needle.

Additionally the bench / AAA for position players is very thin … so very unlikely to deal any quality position player off the 26 man (thinking Berti / Cooper). However, if getting an OF in the deal … they may push for some team to take Solar / Garcia to clear some under performers with big contracts … that would be a non-starter for the Padres given payroll (CB T penalty) concerns.

Sort of looks as though the only trade chip for the Padres that fits MIA needs is Grisham where they have a real need for a ML quality CF in 2023 since they appear to be positioning to at least to be relevant in the playoff race.

As I said before a Grisham - Luzardo deal is pretty balanced in salary - control - WAR projection … but IF the Padres see enough 2023 projection in Severino (C), Dahl (OF), Schrock (INF) and the rostered bench pieces … maybe the deal gets bigger and Campusano / Rosario could go to MIA for a bigger return (thinking a quality SP prospect or two in addition to Luzardo). Would be a move to set-up 2024 with only Musgrove guarenteed to return as a SP.

C is a need (huge need ) for the fish.. Grish + Campusano + Pomz (vet for the BP with huge upside and now healthy "cleared"

Could we get one SP for 2023 and perhaps another arm down the line?

We could bring Alfaro back and have Severino on fold..

I am fine with an OF of Soto/Tatis and one of (Engel/Azocar/Carpenter/Dixon/Dahl rotating)

I mean we went to the NLDS with an opening day OF of Profar/Grish and Myers for God's sake.. in 22