Quote from Henry Silvestre on January 8, 2023, 6:42 pm

https://twitter.com/TooMuchMortons_/status/1612270892025012226?t=mENdw1GeHZ3ziZ2eUvhwyQ&s=19

ALFARO has to be the most "clutch" player in the history of baseball man.. 5 walkoffs in SD in 2022...and now he has 2 (2 for 2) in the Dominican Winter League... truly amazing!

Quote from fenn68 on January 9, 2023, 10:08 am

On the trading Grisham issue … from my view don’t WANT to trade Grisham but WILLING to trade him if see the return making the team better for the 162 game season.

Trading Grisham will reduce OF defense and likely offense no matter how the existing options are deployed. (Not trading Grisham for a better OF in the deal). So, first question has to be can the rest of the offense (and it is elite) carry whomever is his replacement and, second, is the defense THAT worse with Engel/Azocar in the OF.

Once that is thought through … need to consider the perceived weakness in SP over the 162 game schedule … and will that be a bigger problem even in no injuries. Padres are currently gambling on Martinez, Lugo, and  list of many to be better SP in the ML than they have ever been. If they are not … a big hole in #4 and beyond.

So if the debate is, for example Grisham for Luzardo, who makes the team better for the full season vs the non-trade status quo. At least that is a debatable question and is a function of the return.

As for trading for a quality SP and NOT trade Grisham … always good in theory but some other team has to actually want the scraps left to deal … and if they want (need) a ML quality CF the discussion ends there.

Quote from Henry Silvestre on January 9, 2023, 10:30 am

Quote from fenn68 on January 9, 2023, 10:08 am

On the trading Grisham issue … from my view don’t WANT to trade Grisham but WILLING to trade him if see the return making the team better for the 162 game season.

Trading Grisham will reduce OF defense and likely offense no matter how the existing options are deployed. (Not trading Grisham for a better OF in the deal). So, first question has to be can the rest of the offense (and it is elite) carry whomever is his replacement and, second, is the defense THAT worse with Engel/Azocar in the OF.

Once that is thought through … need to consider the perceived weakness in SP over the 162 game schedule … and will that be a bigger problem even in no injuries. Padres are currently gambling on Martinez, Lugo, and  list of many to be better SP in the ML than they have ever been. If they are not … a big hole in #4 and beyond.

So if the debate is, for example Grisham for Luzardo, who makes the team better for the full season vs the non-trade status quo. At least that is a debatable question and is a function of the return.

As for trading for a quality SP and NOT trade Grisham … always good in theory but some other team has to actually want the scraps left to deal … and if they want (need) a ML quality CF the discussion ends there.

I dreamed about this..could Azocar (lots of controlled) 8 DRS and solid at the plate but no pop.. maybe be a player ++ the fish would entertain..(thus the Engel signing)...

But yeah agree on Grish.. he stays unless we get an upgrade (especially at SP)

Hearing some rumblings Tatis is working out and taking flyballs in CF... so that would be a HUGE offensive upgrade..(if not on D eventually) for 23...

Also (excluding Martinez work as SP in 22) we need to replace 4.50 ERA on 300 IP all roughly.. from Gore/Clev and Manea..

Not too hard if u break it down.. Martinez replaces his 100+ ..with 130 IP (so -25 or 275 is left).. Lugo 50 SP 50 BP..(225 left)...

225 innings of 4.50 ERA (as SP).. between Groome/Morejon/Avila/Wethers/Teheran/others that's an avg of 45 IP (..by these 5 but could be more or less and higher workloads each depending if one or 2 differentiate themselves -8 to 10 stars each)

So yeah I would feel better with a +1 SP..added.. but that same player could be a deadline move as well as we find out what we already have in hand

 

Quote from fenn68 on January 9, 2023, 10:44 am

Saw the write—up in MLBTR of Dennis Lin’s report on the Padres’ payroll. Basically, he is reporting that there is a limit (no number reported) but given it is Seidler might breach that limit for an impact player.

I interpret that as not pushing the limits on the likes of Cueto, Profar, et al. Also, probably makes clearer the signings of Engel and Honeywell. Couple that with the need to “tinker” during the season to cover injuries … so need to leave some space under that limit. Remember if Teheran rebounds his ML deal is at $6MM (pro-rated for what part of the season he may impact).

Just a guess the limit (for the full season) may be to stay under the next CBT tax threshold … and they are only $6MM under now.  Should get more bang for the buck adding near the trade deadline taking on only 1/3 of a player’s salary.

A lot of “fringe” FA still out there … better than some of the bench contenders … so might see some low end panic signings (maybe more MiL deals) that will still upgrade the bench but not breach the payroll ceiling.

Also, IF trades in play … should expect a salary neutral deal at worst.

Quote from BoosterSD on January 9, 2023, 10:44 am

Quote from fenn68 on January 9, 2023, 10:08 am

On the trading Grisham issue … from my view don’t WANT to trade Grisham but WILLING to trade him if see the return making the team better for the 162 game season.

I would say that the same philosophy can be applied to Kim as well. While his defense is his value at SS, ( and 3 Finger) I agree that Kim should be our starting SS even with Bogaerts, but we know that at least for this season, Bogaerts is our starting SS.

So if we could flip Kim for a controllable SP or two, that will provide additional SP support for this season, and seasons going forward, SP is a big issue starting in 2024, then that trade needs to be seriously considered as well.

We have Crone that we can keep at 2B, and then we can use Carpenter at 1B, and then maybe an inexpensive platoon partner for Carpenter at 1B, such as Aguilar or Voit. Or in the potential trade to MIA (Grisham), get Garrett Cooper as part of the return.

Quote from fenn68 on January 9, 2023, 11:00 am

Even with the ++ don’t think Azocar would motivate MIA (or any team) to part with a Luzardo type. They would probably deal for him but not using anything that helps the Padres now. Probably get a different version of what the Padres have now.

=======

Tatis to CF seems to be a favorite idea of some in the Padres’ front office … basically a long term solution for what they see as an All-Star level future offensively and defensively. If that is their long term view, can see leveraging Grisham in a get better overall trade for 2023 being considered. Azocar / Engel become insurance.

The issue then switches to a corner OF (Soto has one corner). Keeping in mind the payroll limits … could the Padres filter through some combo of Engel, Azocar, Dixon, Campusano, Carpenter(L), Dahl(L) as a rotation through probably LF?

Side: given the SP potential FA issue after the season … a deal of Grisham for a low cost multi-year SP of quality has major value with only Musgrove under contract.

Quote from fenn68 on January 9, 2023, 11:22 am

I agree Kim should be in play … just not heard any rumors suggesting another team would give up a quality SP for him. Maybe interested in him but not sure what they would offer.

The “saving” of $7MM would add some payroll flexibility but there would be a risk of not have a ML quality SS/2B if Bogaerts or Croney get injured … so any return for Kim would have to be significant to offset that risk while at the same time adding the need for another bat.

Both Grisham and Kim potential trades create similar issues since very little in house backfill … who comes in as replacements offense / defense.

 

Quote from BoosterSD on January 9, 2023, 12:53 pm

Quote from fenn68 on January 9, 2023, 11:22 am

Both Grisham and Kim potential trades create similar issues since very little in house backfill … who comes in as replacements offense / defense.

I understand the bench/injury issues these trades could create, that is why I would look to expand the trades. The two rumors/fits that I see are Grisham to MIA, and Kim to ATL.

The MIA trade would see Grisham, Crismatt, and prospects to MIA, for Luzardo, Berti, and Garrett Cooper. For MIA, they get their CF with power, a spot starter/RP, and save almost $6M in salary. SD gets a stud, controllable SP, and Berti can back up/has playing time at all 7 defensive positions except C, and Cooper can platoon at 1B with Carpenter, and also cover COF spots.

The ATL trade would see Kim, Nola, and a prospect go to ATL, for Anderson, Elder, and D'Arnaud. For ATL they get their starting SS and a C that is more suited to being a back up to Murphy than D'Arnaud. SD gets two young controllable SPs, and a C that might not be happy losing playing time to Murphy, and an upgraded bat to Nola, and from what I understand, not a drop off in ability behind the plate. The costs of the salaries for players involved save SD $250K, based on MLBTR projected arb money.

This $5.75M in increased salary would push SD right up to the next CBT level, but should/could eliminate needing a major move around the deadline, and give SD a really strong start to the season, to bury the Dodgers early.

Batting order could be, Berti, Carpenter, Machado, Soto, Bogaerts, Tatis, Crone, D'Arnaud, Engel. Leaving a bench of Azocar, Cooper, Campusano, and the best performance from ST.

SP rotation then has Darvish, Snell, Musgrove, Luzardo, Martinez, and Honeywell, with Lugo to the pen. Leaving Anderson, Elder, Teheran, Groome, and Weathers all in the MiL for injury or lack of performance call up.

And Luzardo, Anderson, and Elder all ready for SP duty in 2024 and beyond depending on resigning of FA SP from this season.

Quote from MrPadre19 on January 9, 2023, 1:45 pm

For the Braves SEVEN of their top 8 prospects are pitchers.

To take a step further 10 of their top 13 are pitchers.

I sure would like to get a couple of their young arms from them.