Quote from fenn68 on January 8, 2023, 9:58 am

Opposite of the position players where we will watching which non-roster types might push into the active roster … for the 13 active pitchers we may be watching who can hang on and not get DFA.

In are likely Darvish, Musgrove, Snell, Martinez, Lugo, Hader, Suarez, Pomeranz, Garcia, Hill, Wilson … that is 11 with Honeywell, Lopez, Crismatt out of options and a decision on Morejon being optioned and none of the prospects moving into the active roster.

Then don’t sleep on Teheran as a non-roster making a push for the #6 SP … Padres must have a good feeling on his upside given they offered a $6MM ML contract if he makes the roster … pretty pricy vs normal make good MiL deals. Remember a few years back he was an All-Star and still is only about 30 years old. If healthy, not a big hurdle to be back to at least a strong bottom of the rotation SP.

Quote from Henry Silvestre on January 8, 2023, 10:02 am

Quote from fenn68 on January 8, 2023, 9:58 am

Opposite of the position players where we will watching which non-roster types might push into the active roster … for the 13 active pitchers we may be watching who can hang on and not get DFA.

In are likely Darvish, Musgrove, Snell, Martinez, Lugo, Hader, Suarez, Pomeranz, Garcia, Hill, Wilson … that is 11 with Honeywell, Lopez, Crismatt out of options and a decision on Morejon being optioned and none of the prospects moving into the active roster.

Then don’t sleep on Teheran as a non-roster making a push for the #6 SP … Padres must have a good feeling on his upside given they offered a $6MM ML contract if he makes the roster … pretty pricy vs normal make good MiL deals. Remember a few years back he was an All-Star and still is only about 30 years old. If healthy, not a big hurdle to be back to at least a strong bottom of the rotation SP.

Honeywell could start at AAA or earn a spot in ST..like Teheran he is on a split deal..200k minor league and $750k MLB..so even without options he could be kept at AAA and promoted later.. obviously could be DFAd later..

Quote from Henry Silvestre on January 8, 2023, 10:04 am

I see 2 of Pomz/Garcia/Cristmatt and/or Castillo not on 40 by opening day.. with the most likely outcome "Traded"

Quote from Henry Silvestre on January 8, 2023, 10:05 am

Talk about a Stars lining up in 2023..Honeywell pitches like an ACE and stays healthy to give us 100 IP.. 17-20 Starts

Quote from fenn68 on January 8, 2023, 10:13 am

Quote from Henry Silvestre on January 8, 2023, 9:47 am

Quote from fenn68 on January 8, 2023, 9:32 am

Quote from Henry Silvestre on January 8, 2023, 5:47 am

So with a full 40..and assuming no ST surprises or further moves (I doubt that with AJP) our 13 for opening day

1. Manny 3B

2. Soto LF

3. Xander SS

4. Crone Zone  1B/2B

5. Carpenter DH/1B/OF

6. Kim 2B/3B/SS

7. Grish CF

8. Nola C

9. Azocar CF/OF

10. Engel CF/OF

11. Campy C/DH/1B

12. Dixon 1B/3B/OF/DH

13. *Batten Utility

 

*Rosario is > but he benefits > by playing everyday at AAA vs riding a bench that won't give him much playing time..

 

RF/DH (and 1B vs very though RHSP).. 1st 20 games will be a mix of Carpemter/Azocar/Engel/Dixon and Campy*

 

* if the idea is to DH Campy a lot (5 games + ) 1st 20 games then Severino (3 C) makes some sense vs Batten

Tim Lopez (minor league deal signing earlier) if we don't add... could easily displace Batten from #13... He has some mlb experience and track record that suggests he can..

Bench 10-13 feels light but 20 days in Fernando comes in and bumps all down a spot..and like I said don't think AJP is done... in my opinion we need a BAT that can put the ball in the stands with one swing in that Bench... (Dixon did that at AA/AAA last season..ST will show us if he can translate some of that into 2023) would feel better with a Voit though

Sounds pretty close but agree that at least one non-roster player gets added. Of the current Padres non-roster options they probably will take a long look at Schrock as a LHH INF over Batten if they go with Engel / Azocar as the 3rd OF until Tatis returns or LHH Dahl as the LHH if shows well enough to be the RF pre-Tatis. Both put a LHH in the mix.

Since almost zero chance Poppen makes the 26 man … will be DFA (no options) opening one roster slot at the end of ST. Add two is a bit more strategic since they will need to open another when Tatis returns on the 20th. Still a good chance two of Lopez, Crismatt, Honeywell are DFA with no minor league options.. Batten may just be low hanging fruit if they add Schrock and Batten gets DFA when needed.

For all the non-roster invitees and the bench incumbents, ST will be critical but a legit opportunity to get added. At various levels Azocar, Dixon, Batten are at risk (Engel and Carpenter are locks).

40 man roster space will not be a problem … so Severino, Schrock(L), Dahl (L), and even Teheran are really in play. Especially if ST injuries hit.

 

In playing devils advocate..and Grish to Fish rumblings all over the place..wonder if Engel was brought in to replace Grish altogether..figuring D close to = (with full time) ..Speed + and Power -... OBP skills -.. so a downgrade overall with the Bat BUT = or + on D and running game..not a huge difference in the loss of Grish vs the upgrade at SP... and with our Fearsome 4some + lineup a D first empty bat (but as we saw a few seasons ago could trend good) could be carried by it...

Since MIA is apparently making four of their SP available (maybe just trade one) gives a lot of flexibility to construct a trade if Preller is not locked into a specific pitcher. Pretty sure each one comes at a different price point … so a lot of mix and match to make both sides happy.

All reports seem to have Grisham in play for the Padres (and needed by MIA) … so the base of the key return piece is there.

Don’t rule out once Tatis returns, it is he that becomes the CF (some in the Padres organization see that as his real future). Easier to manage a corner OF slot for Grisham’s replacement. Engel / Azocar for defense (also back up CF) but can also consider Carpenter (L) getting time in LF or Dahl (L) getting added.

Also, the trade construct will impact the payroll (either adding or deleting salary net) and IF the Padres can get net lower (get MIA to take Pomeranz by sweetening the deal with prospects) … we might see the return of Profar for LF/supper utility and stay under the next threshold.

 

Quote from fenn68 on January 8, 2023, 10:23 am

Quote from Henry Silvestre on January 8, 2023, 10:02 am

Quote from fenn68 on January 8, 2023, 9:58 am

Opposite of the position players where we will watching which non-roster types might push into the active roster … for the 13 active pitchers we may be watching who can hang on and not get DFA.

In are likely Darvish, Musgrove, Snell, Martinez, Lugo, Hader, Suarez, Pomeranz, Garcia, Hill, Wilson … that is 11 with Honeywell, Lopez, Crismatt out of options and a decision on Morejon being optioned and none of the prospects moving into the active roster.

Then don’t sleep on Teheran as a non-roster making a push for the #6 SP … Padres must have a good feeling on his upside given they offered a $6MM ML contract if he makes the roster … pretty pricy vs normal make good MiL deals. Remember a few years back he was an All-Star and still is only about 30 years old. If healthy, not a big hurdle to be back to at least a strong bottom of the rotation SP.

Honeywell could start at AAA or earn a spot in ST..like Teheran he is on a split deal..200k minor league and $750k MLB..so even without options he could be kept at AAA and promoted later.. obviously could be DFAd later..

Actually Honeywell signed a ML contract (Teheran signed a MiL contract) so Honeywell would have to clear waivers to get assigned to AAA. Most likely would be claimed unless he has a horrible ST (remember the claiming team would also have to keep him on their 26 man).

I guess the Honeywell contract is designed to lock him down in the Padres’ organization for 2023 IF he is DFA and clears waivers rather than allowing him to go FA. From Honeywell’s perspective … he is assured of a job in 2023 and a decent pay. Actually that $200K pay in the minors part of the contract may be a deterrent for another team making a claim.

He could be the biggest surprise of 2023 (whether he makes it out of ST or is added mid-season) given his raw talent.

Quote from 3fingersplit on January 8, 2023, 2:51 pm

After seeing all these different moves and signings that AJ and his staff have pulled off you really have to tip your hat to him...he has built a potential power house of a team but also has found guys that could very well have a rebirth to their careers...Teheran, Honeywell, Groome, Engel, Carpenter, Lugo and Servino. Every one of these guys could play an important role for this team not only on the field but as potential trade pieces.

He has this uncanny ability to find that diamond in the rough e.g.....Jake Cronenworth who at the time was considered a throw in with the trade with Tampa Bay...two time All Star or Trent Grisham...even though his bat has gone south for the moment he is a two time Gold Glove center fielder. I think Grisham will bounce back with the bat this year and if he gave you 15-20 HR and a .240 BA to go with his lock down defense in CF...this team will benefit tremendously. Then add Kim to this who he pulled out of the KBO....Should have won the GG at shortstop last season and most of the moves that AJ has made are top shelf and the good certainly outweigh the bad.

This will be a fun ride this year

Go Padres !!!

Quote from WindsorUK on January 8, 2023, 4:52 pm

For all you guys eager to shift Grisham, have you given any thought to the larger picture on defense?

A good team has to be good defensively up the middle- SS, 2B, CF.

2022, Grisham was GG, whilst Kim and Cronenworth were in the conversation for one. Definitely strong!

Now you're putting a lesser glove at SS, a new glove at 2B, and.....who in CF? Tatis? He was an absolute disaster in his first trial run there.

Everyone is desperate for more front line pitching. Why not keep your top tier defense in place, effectively improving your man on the hump?

Quote from dusty on January 8, 2023, 4:56 pm

Quote from Henry Silvestre on January 8, 2023, 5:47 am

So with a full 40..and assuming no ST surprises or further moves (I doubt that with AJP) our 13 for opening day

1. Manny 3B

2. Soto LF

3. Xander SS

4. Crone Zone  1B/2B

5. Carpenter DH/1B/OF

6. Kim 2B/3B/SS

7. Grish CF

8. Nola C

9. Azocar CF/OF

10. Engel CF/OF

11. Campy C/DH/1B

12. Dixon 1B/3B/OF/DH

13. *Batten Utility

 

*Rosario is > but he benefits > by playing everyday at AAA vs riding a bench that won't give him much playing time..

 

RF/DH (and 1B vs very though RHSP).. 1st 20 games will be a mix of Carpemter/Azocar/Engel/Dixon and Campy*

 

* if the idea is to DH Campy a lot (5 games + ) 1st 20 games then Severino (3 C) makes some sense vs Batten

Tim Lopez (minor league deal signing earlier) if we don't add... could easily displace Batten from #13... He has some mlb experience and track record that suggests he can..

Bench 10-13 feels light but 20 days in Fernando comes in and bumps all down a spot..and like I said don't think AJP is done... in my opinion we need a BAT that can put the ball in the stands with one swing in that Bench... (Dixon did that at AA/AAA last season..ST will show us if he can translate some of that into 2023) would feel better with a Voit though

Don’t forget we signed Dahl to a minor league deal as well! I think he makes the team and has another chance at a rebirth to his career as well