Quote from Henry Silvestre on October 10, 2022, 9:18 am

Quote from BoosterSD on October 10, 2022, 8:41 am

Looking at the MLB.com list of SD prospects, and they list 8 players that "will be ML ready" by the start of the 2023 season.

Not in any particular order, Rosario-INF, Kerr-RHRP, Howell-OF/INF, Groome-LHSP, Kopps-RHRP, Jacob-RHRP, Lugo-RHRP, and Waldron-RHSP, with an improving knuckleball.

I think its possible that Rosario is the RHH back up INF for 2023, and Kerr and Kopps should be ready for 2023 bullpen duty, especially if Martinez or Suarez opt out. It might boil down to Howell and Azocar battling it out for RHH back up OFer. Maybe Groome and/or Waldron can surprise for back end of the starting rotation.

Don't forget Kohlwey and Dixon (especially Dixon).. and Wethers (who no longer qualifies for spec status)..Felipe too and then Castillo/Baez and (non 40) Avila who was nails at EP down the stretch

Because of 40 man construction I expect AJP to maybe move 2 or 3 young BP arms for another AA/AAA near mlb ready type SP.. if not a 1B like Vientos (Mets)

Howell speed is like T Gore's elite ..but he also has a pop to his bat with a not so good hit tool.. similar to Franchy in that regard..and can play INF and CF so very valuable

However Howell did miss a lot of time in 2022 so I expect him to be at EP for at least 1/2 a season before even given consideration for SD

Quote from Henry Silvestre on October 10, 2022, 9:25 am

Quote from fenn68 on October 8, 2022, 6:19 pm

Quote from Henry Silvestre on October 8, 2022, 2:52 pm

https://twitter.com/mlbtrpadres/status/1578863317132922880?t=RNWeUPVBr3_VcxM14xgblA&s=19

As we been speculating

Bet it gets done ... Padres best pitcher now and will be 38 for the start of the extension. Darvish likes stability / routine so probably really would want to stay. He also keeps himself in shape and continues to work to improve ... so, a little less concern about age diminishing his performance at 38-39.

No idea on the terms that would work ... or if they go with a pure extension or a re-done contract that replaces 2023. Theoretically, if they override 2023 in the new contract ... could lower the CBT impact for 2023 which is at $21.5. I doubt he would sign lower than the $20MM due in 2023 but maybe if the added a 3 (or 4 year) extension giving him incentive to accept a lower AAV. Getting big money at 40 is a gamble ... so 4 years at $60MM (AAV $15MM) may be better than 2 years at a $40MM (AAV $20MM) ... can juggle the numbers but that would be the idea.

Just heard too that where as other teams (Cubs/LAD) tried to box Yu in on his P.. The Padres have left him open to do what he wants to do..freedom to express himself and throw it all.. Yu is like a Picasso let him paint ..and Yu credit the Padres (giving him freedom) as a big part for his success in 22.. that and the fact that he stated Family being so important for him ..no moving and maybe only pitching 3 or 4 more yrs..makes SDP and a discount a very good possibility.. 4/80?

Quote from Henry Silvestre on October 10, 2022, 9:29 am

Quote from fenn68 on October 8, 2022, 6:19 pm

Quote from Henry Silvestre on October 8, 2022, 2:52 pm

https://twitter.com/mlbtrpadres/status/1578863317132922880?t=RNWeUPVBr3_VcxM14xgblA&s=19

As we been speculating

Bet it gets done ... Padres best pitcher now and will be 38 for the start of the extension. Darvish likes stability / routine so probably really would want to stay. He also keeps himself in shape and continues to work to improve ... so, a little less concern about age diminishing his performance at 38-39.

No idea on the terms that would work ... or if they go with a pure extension or a re-done contract that replaces 2023. Theoretically, if they override 2023 in the new contract ... could lower the CBT impact for 2023 which is at $21.5. I doubt he would sign lower than the $20MM due in 2023 but maybe if the added a 3 (or 4 year) extension giving him incentive to accept a lower AAV. Getting big money at 40 is a gamble ... so 4 years at $60MM (AAV $15MM) may be better than 2 years at a $40MM (AAV $20MM) ... can juggle the numbers but that would be the idea.

Haha you say 4/60 I say 4/80.. 4/70 DONE!

Quote from fenn68 on October 10, 2022, 9:36 am

Really not all that impressed by all those ready for 2023 prospects.

Of them, the RP have some interest (especially as call-ups): Lugo; Felipe; Baez; Castillo; Cosgrove; and more a long shot in Jacob. Not really convinced in Waldron at the ML level and think Kopps has a long way to go with command ... so not betting on him yet. See no future in Kerr but maybe a surprise wild card is Guerrero, big arm returned from injury.

Groome will be looked at as a SP option but just don't know what to make of Avila's career ups and downs. Weathers has a lot to prove yet in the minors.

Of the current active RP, I expect the Padres to go all out to sign Suarez to an extension ... been impressive since returning from injury and has clear closer potential. A lot of "potential" bodies for the pitching staff and might see Morejon a trade chip ... big potential but not yet there and really on 3 more control years. Might be in a package to get a bat or SP? Still have Hader, Pomeranz, Hill, Castillo, and Cosgrove and LHRP options and usually hold only three.

Quote from fenn68 on October 10, 2022, 9:37 am

Quote from Henry Silvestre on October 10, 2022, 9:29 am

Quote from fenn68 on October 8, 2022, 6:19 pm

Quote from Henry Silvestre on October 8, 2022, 2:52 pm

https://twitter.com/mlbtrpadres/status/1578863317132922880?t=RNWeUPVBr3_VcxM14xgblA&s=19

As we been speculating

Bet it gets done ... Padres best pitcher now and will be 38 for the start of the extension. Darvish likes stability / routine so probably really would want to stay. He also keeps himself in shape and continues to work to improve ... so, a little less concern about age diminishing his performance at 38-39.

No idea on the terms that would work ... or if they go with a pure extension or a re-done contract that replaces 2023. Theoretically, if they override 2023 in the new contract ... could lower the CBT impact for 2023 which is at $21.5. I doubt he would sign lower than the $20MM due in 2023 but maybe if the added a 3 (or 4 year) extension giving him incentive to accept a lower AAV. Getting big money at 40 is a gamble ... so 4 years at $60MM (AAV $15MM) may be better than 2 years at a $40MM (AAV $20MM) ... can juggle the numbers but that would be the idea.

Haha you say 4/60 I say 4/80.. 4/70 DONE!

Where do we sign?

Quote from fenn68 on October 10, 2022, 9:55 am

If I am not really impressed by the pitching ... zero faith in the hitters. Might get a surviver or two for the bench given no current alternatives ... but just bodies. Since Dixon is here ... he should have the inside track. Howell has work to do in the minors (maybe in AA) given his less than impressive AA BA and most of 2022 lost to injury. Kohlway does not seem to be ML quality (more AAAA).

The one we need to evaluate more is Rosario ... good shot at back-up INF and young ... but looking at his AAA stats they are misleading. He had outstanding performance IN EP but mediocre performance AWAY (and the ML are AWAY). Also, faded at the end of the season. Batten is still around for that back-up INF role while Rosario get to prove more in AAA although can see a low coast veteran INF added who would be better for a contending team.

The wild card with the bat may be Hollis who won the AA batting title and did well in his AAA stint. Still needs AAA time but expect him to be added to the 40 man and poised to be a call-up if needed. Could be a good EP battle for the call-up between Rosario and Hollis.

Quote from fenn68 on October 10, 2022, 10:19 am

I expect the Padres to re-sign Suarez and Profar to avoid them opting out ... Suarez has been too good to let get away with closer potential and Profar (I know many on this forum are not impressed) but the Padres really like his work both offensively and defensively plus he clubhouse presence (any alternative probably more expensive). Just not sure about Martinez.

But with only Tatis returning and Drury, Myers, Bell exiting ... if they can retain Profar they have less a hurdle in filling those departing bats (plus they have SP to address).

Not a lot of quality trade chips ... and probably not a lot of payroll escalation even if they go over the tax threshold.

With the pen (if Suarez returns) ... has the best trade chips ... not for All-Star quality adds but at least ML quality pieces of avoid major holes in the line-up. Morejon should be on the table even if he can be projected as a starter. Would love to move Pomeranz to open payroll space (probably in ST if he shows he is heathy).

Minors not a lot (as trade value for a quality MLer) beyond Merrill unless they want to bundle all the rest of the low A / Rookie Ball top prospects. I guess fish for a return for Campusano / Rosario.

All in all, to get quality return will need another package of prospect (one or two that are quality prospects not just bodies).

Quote from Randy Manese on October 10, 2022, 10:57 am

Hollis will be 28 when the 2023 season begins and currently is free agent eligible.  I'm not sure that anybody can be added to the 40-man until after the World Series, so if that is what the Padres want to do then it likely will happen beginning with that 5 day period after the Series ends.

Hollis had a great year but he also had an astounding .413 BAPIP that supported that .333 BA in San Antonio - that kind of BAPIP likely is not sustainable.  He 2022/career stats show only average or even below extra base impact but he does have a good eye; his speed is decent but not exceptional.  A case could be made for a long look at Hollis but he seems, at best, like a RHH Kohlwey - AAAA.  Long term, since Rosario will only be 23 in 2023, I like him better than Hollis since he still seems to be developing.  Both Hollis and Rosario are good, but not superior defensive players and can play all over the infield but so can Batten.  Batten has the best glove and the best speed of the three but not the hitter the other two are.

These guys are only placeholders for Jackson Merrill, who should be recognized as one of the best infielders in the minors by everyone in 2023.  He continues to grow into his body and the power is coming.   Merrill just needs to clean up a little bit of his footwork on the defensive end to rise to the top of his game.  Be excited about this guy!  He could move up in a hurry if he stays healthy.

Quote from BoosterSD on October 10, 2022, 11:24 am

Posted today on MLBTR, projected arbitration salaries for all ML teams. Now they are not always right, but usually fairly close. Some are lower than what some of expect, and some are higher than what we might expect. They are listed in order by service time.

Hader - $13.6M, Alfaro - $3.6M, Soto - $21.5M, Hill - $1.7M, Adams - $1M, Castillo - $.9M, Nola - $2.2M, Grisham - $2.6M, Morejon - $.8M, and Cronenworth - $4.4M.

For me personally, I think that the jumps for Nola, Grisham, and Crone are a bit high. Especially for Nola and Grisham.

On the flip side, I think they are low on Hader and Soto.