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2023 offseason
#261 · October 10, 2022, 12:37 pm
Quote from Randy Manese on October 10, 2022, 10:57 amHollis will be 28 when the 2023 season begins and currently is free agent eligible. I'm not sure that anybody can be added to the 40-man until after the World Series, so if that is what the Padres want to do then it likely will happen beginning with that 5 day period after the Series ends.
Hollis had a great year but he also had an astounding .413 BAPIP that supported that .333 BA in San Antonio - that kind of BAPIP likely is not sustainable. He 2022/career stats show only average or even below extra base impact but he does have a good eye; his speed is decent but not exceptional. A case could be made for a long look at Hollis but he seems, at best, like a RHH Kohlwey - AAAA. Long term, since Rosario will only be 23 in 2023, I like him better than Hollis since he still seems to be developing. Both Hollis and Rosario are good, but not superior defensive players and can play all over the infield but so can Batten. Batten has the best glove and the best speed of the three but not the hitter the other two are.
These guys are only placeholders for Jackson Merrill, who should be recognized as one of the best infielders in the minors by everyone in 2023. He continues to grow into his body and the power is coming. Merrill just needs to clean up a little bit of his footwork on the defensive end to rise to the top of his game. Be excited about this guy! He could move up in a hurry if he stays healthy.
Overall agree but once the FA are off the 40 man (just after the WS) I would expect the adds of any potential minor league FA and probably the Rule 5 types.
Batten, Rosario, and Hollis may not be the future … but for now they are the best options for bench / call-up middle INF … so roster them until a better option comes along (can always DFA them later).
Expect initially the roster constructed with bias towards pitching … better prospects while pitching always the the potential for a lot of churn during the season and a good source of trade fodder.
Impossible to get into Preller’s mind but part of the roster construction is how he views the use of Tatis and Profar in 2023 since both (in theory) could be INF support if need.
#262 · October 10, 2022, 12:45 pm
Quote from BoosterSD on October 10, 2022, 11:24 amPosted today on MLBTR, projected arbitration salaries for all ML teams. Now they are not always right, but usually fairly close. Some are lower than what some of expect, and some are higher than what we might expect. They are listed in order by service time.
Hader - $13.6M, Alfaro - $3.6M, Soto - $21.5M, Hill - $1.7M, Adams - $1M, Castillo - $.9M, Nola - $2.2M, Grisham - $2.6M, Morejon - $.8M, and Cronenworth - $4.4M.
For me personally, I think that the jumps for Nola, Grisham, and Crone are a bit high. Especially for Nola and Grisham.
On the flip side, I think they are low on Hader and Soto.
You see it the same way that I did. However, compared to my estimates their higher estimates were offset by their lower estimates … net got me basically where I was in total. That total has the Padres about $1MM under the first tax threshold.
It seems inevitable the Padres go over the first threshold (Seidler will not have an issue with that first level penalty while they are contenders and after 2022) … maybe the question should be do they breach the second level.
#263 · October 10, 2022, 2:09 pm
Just as a marker on pricing players … the arb estimate for Luke Voit (2nd last ARB) was as $8.2MM and Hunter Renfroe was at $11.2MM (last ARB).
So when looking at FA … this is what you might get for $10MM+/-.
#264 · October 10, 2022, 4:25 pm
Looking at yesterday's lineup only 2 (Wil and Bell) will not be under team control for 2023..assuming Profar opts in.. we get +1 in Tatis so as currently constructed we will only have 1 position open (assuming Dixon, Azocar and Campy/Alfaro are the 4 bench guys)..Need 1B as Profar would DH /Tatis LF as currently constructed.. or Crone 1B/Kim SS/Tatis 2B/Profar LF and DH ?
At AAA and (40) Batten/Rosario/..perhaps Hollis/Howell/Kohlwey
So I can see a move (trade) in which a team looking for a C (backup or platoon) could be intrigued by Alfaro or Campy to various degrees and different returns.. But look for a Arb 2 or 3 guy at a deep position from another team that perhaps can be traded /Swapped for Alfaro pre non-tender deadline
As I've said before SP at least 1 stud and 1 either 5th guy or spec with some upside at AA/AAA like Groome 2.0 are needs for 2023 club and EP depth..
With our Farm rather thin. our main trade chips heading into offseason maybe BP arms (I think I counted 15 (with Mart and Suarez as 2) that could contribute in 2023) I could see 3 to 4 moving
Best trade chip BP might be Luis Garcia.. best Position chip Jake Cronesworth/ C Campusano... Best spec chip Merrill/Snelling
I dont see AJP moving specs (top ones) although I could see a Campy + Rosario + Ornelas + Contreras + Luis Garcia BP + Pomz BP.. leading a couple of trades for ????
#265 · October 10, 2022, 4:30 pm
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/10/mlb-projected-arbitration-salaries-2023.html
Just for fun with Astros likely losing C Vazquez to FA ..Dubon CF/SS/INF type utility might be a good exchange for Padres for Alfaro. Both arb eligible..
#266 · October 10, 2022, 4:45 pm
I dont think Voit (Nats) and Renfroe make it.. I dont see the Brewers dishing out $11mil they have so many arb $$ to decide on and are thrifty as hell... wouldn't mind swapping Groome for Lauer at $5mil to replace Sean as a 2nd LHP in the rotation..
Voit might be cheaper than Wil/Drury and Bell in FA .. 3/15 maybe if he is non tendered..and not a bad power bat to add tbh..good clubhouse guy too....
Anyway should be a good secondary market both non tenders and potential trades for arb players..
#267 · October 10, 2022, 5:34 pm
I can see WASH non-tendering Voit at that price. That is a lot of coin for a one trick pony … occasional power. No defense, poor BA/OBP, high K%. As a FA he will be lucky to get a 1 year deal at less money.
As for Renfroe, MILW will be on the phone trying to trade him … only one year commitment for a team and he did have a strong stat year offensively and defensively. $11MM for his production is a good deal for a contender needing offense in RF. If they traded Hader while in contention … dealing Renfroe after folding down the stretch seems in the cards.
Pretty sure Preller will be going down that road (along with every other road) but not those two.
#268 · October 12, 2022, 8:44 am
Manea + Clev $$ just went to search for a better 4th SP option.. With Tatis back and the Big 3 SP back our 2023 team looks to be even stronger .. As we saw last night (while a 5th SP is not necessary) a better 4th is..My vote is for Senga . Groome can handle #5... or #6 if we want to run 6 like this yr in 23.. if we do run 6..we need +1 more in FA ..Davies would be my guy
#269 · October 12, 2022, 9:05 am
Quote from Henry Silvestre on October 12, 2022, 8:44 amManea + Clev $$ just went to search for a better 4th SP option.. With Tatis back and the Big 3 SP back our 2023 team looks to be even stronger .. As we saw last night (while a 5th SP is not necessary) a better 4th is..My vote is for Senga . Groome can handle #5... or #6 if we want to run 6 like this yr in 23.. if we do run 6..we need +1 more in FA ..Davies would be my guy
Actually that money (and part of Myers) will go to pay for a full season of Soto and Hader.
#270 · October 12, 2022, 9:17 am
I know that we are "planning on getting" Tatis back in May, and that will add a big bat in LF. However, last nights game showed we have a glaring hole when it comes to 1B and LHH power. We had LAD where we wanted in the top of the 6th with two on and no outs. Bell struck out, and Myers grounded into an inning ending double play.
Obviously Preller thought that Soto; and Bell as well, were to be those guys, but it hasnt happened at this time. Soto seems happy being a table setter, and Machado can not do it all on his own.
We need a power bat at 1B. I would prefer LHH, but the only decent FA option there is Rizzo. Dont think he is coming back to SD. Nellie had eye surgery, maybe he bounces back, and Preller loves him, but he is a DH. Jesus Aguilar could be an option, but is he declining?
Maybe a trade, but what pieces do we have left that will actually get an above average 1B piece, not much.
Perhaps a combo of Nellie at DH and Myers at 1B for defense, could provide the offense that we are missing at this time.
I still say that a trade for Michael A Taylor from KC is a good idea for SD.