Quote from fenn68 on October 6, 2022, 10:34 am

Profar is on a $7.5MM player option for 2023 and a $10MM mutual option for 2024 (mutual options are almost never exercised).

Now consider the real FA market pricing / demand realities ... and use Mark Canha's FA last winter as a reality check:

base year for Canha ... at age 32 ... coming off a year where he had a 117 wRC+ and a 3.1 WAR ... signed a two year / $25.5MM ($13.250MM AAV).

Profar will be still 29 this winter ... coming off a year where he had a 110 wRC+ and a 2.5 WAR.

Profar's base year is not all that much under Canha's base year yet his going forward deal significantly less in value. Profar may really like playing in SD BUT maybe we need to consider he (and his agent) may see that in FA he should do better (probably not worse) making the opt out a good gamble.

If so, the good news it would open up $7.5MM ... bad news now they really need to add multiple bats probably costing more.

Quote from Henry Silvestre on October 6, 2022, 10:52 am

Quote from fenn68 on October 6, 2022, 10:34 am

Profar is on a $7.5MM player option for 2023 and a $10MM mutual option for 2024 (mutual options are almost never exercised).

Now consider the real FA market pricing / demand realities ... and use Mark Canha's FA last winter as a reality check:

base year for Canha ... at age 32 ... coming off a year where he had a 117 wRC+ and a 3.1 WAR ... signed a two year / $25.5MM ($13.250MM AAV).

Profar will be still 29 this winter ... coming off a year where he had a 110 wRC+ and a 2.5 WAR.

Profar's base year is not all that much under Canha's base year yet his going forward deal significantly less in value. Profar may really like playing in SD BUT maybe we need to consider he (and his agent) may see that in FA he should do better (probably not worse) making the opt out a good gamble.

If so, the good news it would open up $7.5MM ... bad news now they really need to add multiple bats probably costing more.

Peralta would be an inexpensive replacement.. Joc?

Quote from BoosterSD on October 6, 2022, 12:31 pm

One trade option that may not cost a lot in prospects, or his CBT money would be Michael A. Taylor from KC. He is a FA after the 2023 season, and is only $4.5M in salary. KC is not going anywhere soon, so he should be available, and should not need top level prospects to get him. His production batting wise is similar to Grisham at his best, and is RHH, so could be a nice upgrade over Azocar, and is a better fielder than both Grisham and Azocar.

And for the cheap FA option in LF/Bench upon the return of Tatis could be Gamel. His 2022 contract was only $1.8M, so he could hold down LF until the return of Tatis. So we could have two bats to replace Profar for about $6.5M, saving $1M going towards a 1B/DH option.

An OF options of Tatis, Taylor, Soto with Grisham, Gamel, Dixon on the bench could be a nice OF for 2023.

Quote from Henry Silvestre on October 6, 2022, 1:55 pm

https://twitter.com/PitchingNinja/status/1504830464741228563?t=4nJJn0CjqfU2LMXy_rPOBA&s=19

 

Priority #1 right here right now for the offseason is signing SENGA

Quote from fenn68 on October 6, 2022, 3:13 pm

Quote from Henry Silvestre on October 6, 2022, 1:55 pm

https://twitter.com/PitchingNinja/status/1504830464741228563?t=4nJJn0CjqfU2LMXy_rPOBA&s=19

 

Priority #1 right here right now for the offseason is signing SENGA

Got my vote. Just don’t let Darvish recruit him or he will be a CUB.

Scouting suggests he will be a middle to upper rotation type … that would make a very strong #1-4 and would allow a lot more flexibility filling the rest of the rotation … even making some pieces trade chips for position players.

Quote from BoosterSD on October 7, 2022, 6:43 am

Cant believe that I am typing this; however, reading MLBTR this morning and they were discussing the Red Sox. One of the issues was finding playing time for both Hosmer an Casas. So.....

We really have no option for 1B next season, we are already paying almost all of Hosmers salary anyway, and BOS wants/needs C help. Would an Alfaro-Hosmer trade make sense for SD. It would save us about $3-4M, and to be honest, SD seemed to have more energy and chemistry with Hosmer on the team than after.

I severely doubt this would happen, as that would mean that Preller would be admitting to a mistake, but in all seriousness, would it be a good move???

Quote from Henry Silvestre on October 7, 2022, 7:39 am

Quote from BoosterSD on October 7, 2022, 6:43 am

Cant believe that I am typing this; however, reading MLBTR this morning and they were discussing the Red Sox. One of the issues was finding playing time for both Hosmer an Casas. So.....

We really have no option for 1B next season, we are already paying almost all of Hosmers salary anyway, and BOS wants/needs C help. Would an Alfaro-Hosmer trade make sense for SD. It would save us about $3-4M, and to be honest, SD seemed to have more energy and chemistry with Hosmer on the team than after.

I severely doubt this would happen, as that would mean that Preller would be admitting to a mistake, but in all seriousness, would it be a good move???

I don't think getting Hosmer back = admitting tobacco mistake.. He had to go to accommodate $$$ coming in..and AJP (Pads) didn't really pay for Hosmer salary as much as they Paid for Groome...

No thanks to Hosmer.. But I'll take Casas.. maybe Swap Campusano + Rosario + BP arm for Casas.. Casas is a top 20 spec but a 1B/DH which is less valuable.. Campy (50ish) + Rosario (borderline 100ish) + one of our BP arms (Baez?) Should be about right for Casas

Quote from BoosterSD on October 7, 2022, 8:22 am

Quote from Henry Silvestre on October 7, 2022, 7:39 am

I don't think getting Hosmer back = admitting tobacco mistake.. He had to go to accommodate $$$ coming in..and AJP (Pads) didn't really pay for Hosmer salary as much as they Paid for Groome...

No thanks to Hosmer.. But I'll take Casas.. maybe Swap Campusano + Rosario + BP arm for Casas.. Casas is a top 20 spec but a 1B/DH which is less valuable.. Campy (50ish) + Rosario (borderline 100ish) + one of our BP arms (Baez?) Should be about right for Casas

There is no way BOS is trading Casas, especially for the middle of the road prospects that you suggested. He is their #2 prospect and part of their future. You would have to start with Merrill to even open the discussion of getting Casas out of BOS.

Quote from Randy Manese on October 7, 2022, 8:23 am

Hosmer opts out - no telling where he'll land but likely somewhere else on the East Coast, where both he and his wife are from.  He'd love to go to Miami but unless it's an incentive laden contract, don't think they'll pay him anything close to 13M.  I'm thinking Baltimore or the Mets where his leadership abilities may be appreciated more - could even surprise and take Washington the second time around.

Agree that Campy is likely traded, although not sure it will be Boston.  Nola's late season upswing probably saved his job in San Diego and Alfaro is now almost a legend and was effective before he got hurt.  With Ethan Salas to be signed in January and several good defensive catchers in the system, looks like Campy is the odd man out thus it is best to trade him while he still has that prospect aura around him.  I do still like him as a hitter but apparently Melvin/Padres don't see him as a regular catcher in the near future.  So probably Campy and others for an OF with some promise, i.e., someone with potential to develop into an everyday good defensive CF and hit with some power from the left side - something like we thought the overly bulked up Grisham would turn out to be.