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2023 offseason
#221 · October 5, 2022, 9:40 am
Quote from fenn68 on October 5, 2022, 9:22 amQuote from BoosterSD on October 5, 2022, 8:43 amI still fully think that we will see Clevinger resign with SD. I am sure that he will get some sort of knee clean up over the winter, and I then fully expect him to be the "guy" that we initially traded for originally in 2023 and beyond.
I dont think any team will max out a package for him, and I think he likes it here in SD. So I think a 3 year deal, that will have incentives based on starts or innings. Probably ranging in that $10-12M a year range for 3 years, keeping him in SD through 2025.
And then, with the time frame for the recently drafted kids to reach SD, and his current performance level, would not be surprised to see some sort of extension for Darvish, basically rewriting his 2023 number, to give SD some CBT room for 2023 and beyond.
For the veteran FA innings eater, IF Manaea comes back on the cheap (around $5M or less) it could be him. I would be real comfortable with Zach Davies around $2-3M, after that, I would need to peruse the FA list on MLBTR to find other viable options.
I can't imagine any team giving Clevinger a 3 year deal given his injury history and age (32 next season). More likely a one year deal with an option / incentives based on innings (depending on the salary). Plus hard to see anything over his current $8MM salary. Time is passing on his upside ... been quite a while since he had a complete season.
I agree that given what Darvish has done ... and the Padres sense that 23-24 with Soto added to Tatis, Machado, Cronenworth, Kim, Musgrove ... they will push to extend him. He seem healthy these days and clearly effective. However, those same factors would argue for Darvish not dropping much (if at all) and maybe wanting more than his current salary. Clearly Scherzer and Verlander did not come down.
I still think the Padres will opt for the SP who they project as the best production at the lowest cost ... no sentiment about Clevinger or Manaea. That may mean pay more but for much better production ... sort of a cost / benefit balance.
This is kind of what I was saying for Clevinger. It could be a 3 year package, with the last 2 years as options that kick in based on innings pitched for the previous season. That way IF/WHEN he is healthy and performing well, those options kick in, due to performance. If he is unhealthy, and/or ineffective he will not get the innings, and he will not reach the option levels. I still think, even with those parameters , the total package would end up close to the $30-35M range. Something like $9-2023, $11-2024, and $12.5-2025.
#222 · October 5, 2022, 9:41 am
Can save $15 million by letting Hader walk.
No way on God's green earth do we pay a one trick pony that kinda cash.
Use that money to help you bring in a LF
#223 · October 5, 2022, 9:54 am
Quote from Henry Silvestre on October 5, 2022, 9:37 amWouldn't rule out a Snellzilla extension
I would for two reasons, one his last extension was very cheap, only $10M per year average. Second, and most important, he has changed agents, and now is with Boras. And he is notorious for taking clients to free agency, especially since Snell will be 31 at time of FA.
#224 · October 5, 2022, 9:55 am
Quote from WindsorUK on October 5, 2022, 9:41 amCan save $15 million by letting Hader walk.
No way on God's green earth do we pay a one trick pony that kinda cash.
Use that money to help you bring in a LF
I think this will be based entirely on his play off performance this season.
#225 · October 5, 2022, 11:15 am
Quote from BoosterSD on October 5, 2022, 9:55 amQuote from WindsorUK on October 5, 2022, 9:41 amCan save $15 million by letting Hader walk.
No way on God's green earth do we pay a one trick pony that kinda cash.
Use that money to help you bring in a LF
I think this will be based entirely on his play off performance this season.
If they chose to move on from Hader (more the $15MM projected) most likely he would be traded ... yes, there would be buyers who will overlook his few "blimps" in 2022 and buy the full body of work. Keep in mind that after troubles in LAD, Jansen got a big deal with ATL ... so for one year commitment there will be bidders.
However, doubt they move off Hader (barring a major return piece for 2023). Not sure they are ready to go with the return of Pomeranz or the development of Suarez stepping in the closer role. Every one else is a pure gamble as a closer.
What we should hope for, Pomeranz shows up in ST and is lights out showing he is healthy and effective ... and the Padres trade him (only 2023 before FA and $10MM) at the end of ST before he gets injured again ... for a PTNL if they take the salary.
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Jeremy Hill
#226 · October 5, 2022, 4:33 pm
Quote from BoosterSD on October 4, 2022, 4:29 pmPosition players in theory.
We know we have the following. Machado, Kim, and Crone for the INF. Soto and Grisham for the OF. And at C, Nola and Alfaro. So that fills 3B, SS, 2B, RF, CF, and C.
We then need to decide on whether the following are ML or 4A bats, Campusano, Azocar, Dixon, and Rosario. That will help decide where we need help when it comes to filling spots. My thought, is that all 4 are probably 4A bats. So maybe bench help at best.
We THINK Tatis will be back in late April/early May (as long as he doesnt hurt something or do something stupid again), so that can fill an OF spot, but still need to get through the first 30 days or so.
So we could start the season with an OF of Profar/Azocar/Grisham mix and Soto. Then upon the return of Tatis we would go Tatis, Grisham/Azocar, Soto with Profar returning to super sub spot.
DH can be a rest rotation spot. Basically leaving SD needing a 1B (not Profar as someone suggested). Unfortunately the 1B FAs look pretty bleak, especially since Bell has stunk it up in SD.
Although I agree Profar may be best in a super utility role … taking him out of the starting 9 is just a practical issue. Still need at least two bats (1B/DH) and probably 3 if not happy with the offense of Grisham/Azocar (I am not). Adding three bats better than Profar … if you can find them and sign them they will cost at the same time trying to sign SP … the money needed for all that would in excess of $30MM for “average” types.
Since I do see Profar all around greater than Grisham / Azocar … it is they who should be on the bench (if returning) and Tatis to CF. Depending who they add (two bats) … Profar ends up LF or 1B or DH. I am not betting on Dixon, Rosario, Grisham / Azocar, Batten, or anyone else internally being better than Profar.
#227 · October 6, 2022, 8:29 am
Quote from fenn68 on October 5, 2022, 4:33 pmQuote from BoosterSD on October 4, 2022, 4:29 pmPosition players in theory.
We know we have the following. Machado, Kim, and Crone for the INF. Soto and Grisham for the OF. And at C, Nola and Alfaro. So that fills 3B, SS, 2B, RF, CF, and C.
We then need to decide on whether the following are ML or 4A bats, Campusano, Azocar, Dixon, and Rosario. That will help decide where we need help when it comes to filling spots. My thought, is that all 4 are probably 4A bats. So maybe bench help at best.
We THINK Tatis will be back in late April/early May (as long as he doesnt hurt something or do something stupid again), so that can fill an OF spot, but still need to get through the first 30 days or so.
So we could start the season with an OF of Profar/Azocar/Grisham mix and Soto. Then upon the return of Tatis we would go Tatis, Grisham/Azocar, Soto with Profar returning to super sub spot.
DH can be a rest rotation spot. Basically leaving SD needing a 1B (not Profar as someone suggested). Unfortunately the 1B FAs look pretty bleak, especially since Bell has stunk it up in SD.
Although I agree Profar may be best in a super utility role … taking him out of the starting 9 is just a practical issue. Still need at least two bats (1B/DH) and probably 3 if not happy with the offense of Grisham/Azocar (I am not). Adding three bats better than Profar … if you can find them and sign them they will cost at the same time trying to sign SP … the money needed for all that would in excess of $30MM for “average” types.
Since I do see Profar all around greater than Grisham / Azocar … it is they who should be on the bench (if returning) and Tatis to CF. Depending who they add (two bats) … Profar ends up LF or 1B or DH. I am not betting on Dixon, Rosario, Grisham / Azocar, Batten, or anyone else internally being better than Profar.
I think our BEST lineup as of right now.. Has Profar in LF..Tatis in CF and Soto in RF
With Manny 3B/Kim SS and Crone at 2B
C Nola
Bench Sugar/Grish/Campy
DH ?
1B ?
4TH Bench spot ?
Jake with 88 rbis looks like a logical option for cleanup #4 behind Manny vs RHP.. for 2023.. I believe he was 7 for 11 with bases juiced as well.. clutch clutch
Looking at our minors and pending FA and FA market
Resigning one of Bell/Myers/Drury probably one of the last 2.. is a must
Rosario/Batten and Dixon as well as Campy/Alfaro? Could be in a fight for at least a platoon DH role and last Bench spots
#228 · October 6, 2022, 9:13 am
I guess it really boils down to Grisham to be honest. With a DH, and Tatis back in a line up, IF Grisham can get back to his normal line of .240 BA and .335 OBP and pop 12-15 HRs, you can live with that in the 8 or 9 batting spot. If you are of the belief that he can not bounce back, then his defense is not enough to live with a .180/.280 BA/OBP.
#229 · October 6, 2022, 9:19 am
When Tatis returns, I dont think we need a full time DH, we can use the DH for days off from the field for the big bats, and that is where Profar will come into play. He can bounce around the INF/OF giving guys a day and still play 3-5 days a week.
I still think I would bring back Myers for the right price. He plays a very good 1B, and to be honest his best offensive numbers were at 1B, before they signed Hosmer. So maybe a return to 1B full time would be a good move for SD.
#230 · October 6, 2022, 9:57 am
The call on Grisham over the winter is critical in setting up other strategies. Since don't see Azocar as a starting CF ... so if not Grisham then really only Tatis is a legit option. Alternatively make the FA signing or trade for a legit CF. If they go with the alternative strategy that consumes money and trade chips that otherwise could be used of other upgrades. Padres can't really wait until the season to make the call as the alternatives will be gone elsewhere and / or the money and trade chips will be committed.
Not going to release Grisham (3 years control and probably just above league minimum) who can still provide defensive insurance in CF. However hard to bet on Grisham's bat returning to his 2020, 1st half 2021 levels considering:
2021 (2nd half ... 228 AB) 212/296/333
2022 (1st half .... 294 AB) 190/292/330
2022 (2nd half ... 157 AB) 172/270/363
Basically a year and a half of declining production ... not encouraging.
Think Padres have to plan for Tatis in CF or add a legit CF (not a lot of options ... and not going to be cheap).
Even if Profar bounces around to "rest" others as the DH ... effectively he is still full time in the line-up (or they need 3rd bat, probably do anyway to cover injuries) ... and to make that work Padres need to add a legit OF for LF and a legit 1B at a minimum.
I just can't rely on the current mix of internal options to be anything more the bench pieces ... "rely" is the key for a contender. Side, a LHH would be ideal if Grisham is out and Profar is part-time ... only Soto and Cronenworth skews the line-up a bit to RH.
Either Nimmo or Benintendi would free up Profar from being needed in the OF and provide a LHH in the line-up ... no idea at this point the contracts they would command and who would be the other bidders.