Quote from 3fingersplit on November 21, 2022, 7:28 pm

A few questions for you all

Who is the best pure hitter on the roster right now ?

Who are the hitters you want to see up in the first inning ?

Who is the best RBI guy on the team ?

 

Quote from Jeremy Hill on November 21, 2022, 7:58 pm

Quote from BoosterSD on November 21, 2022, 4:35 pm

Quote from Jeremy Hill on November 21, 2022, 1:59 pm

That's not the argument. If you want to argue that Soto's slugging is more valuable in the 4 hole I'm fine with that. It's the argument that he slugs because he's in the 4 hole or doesn't because he's in the 2 hole I think is ridiculous. Correlation is not causation.

You may think its ridiculous, but 4 of his 5 years of stats says that its true. 1 year aboration, but 4 of 5 years of stats where his slug percentage says he is a better slugger in the 4 spot.

So if you want a $24M obp guy in guy, by all means, bat him 2nd. If you want the generational hitter that he is with all of it, OBP, BA, and SLG, bat him 4th.

4 years of stats dont lie.

He has a little over a year's worth of PAs in the 2 hole. Almost 2/3 of which came this past season. Putting that aside here's a question for you. What in your opinion is he doing differently hitting 2nd vs 3rd or 4th to explain the difference in results?

Quote from BoosterSD on November 21, 2022, 8:04 pm

Quote from 3fingersplit on November 21, 2022, 7:28 pm

A few questions for you all

Who is the best pure hitter on the roster right now ?

Machado, should be Soto if he finds his stroke.

Who are the hitters you want to see up in the first inning ?

Machado, Tatis when he is on the roster again.

Who is the best RBI guy on the team ?

Tatis if he can stay healty. Machado and Soto are tied for 2nd, 1st if Tatis is hurt or suspended.

Quote from BoosterSD on November 21, 2022, 8:15 pm

Quote from Jeremy Hill on November 21, 2022, 7:58 pm

He has a little over a year's worth of PAs in the 2 hole. Almost 2/3 of which came this past season. Putting that aside here's a question for you. What in your opinion is he doing differently hitting 2nd vs 3rd or 4th to explain the difference in results?

It is completely bizarre. I get it, I mean if it was just his time in SD, you could say the trade, the park, the first time being traded. But its so drastic every year.

Im not sure, since its over such a long time frame, and the situations are different. I mean part of it was during the years it was with Rendon and Harper on the team. And same results when they were gone, so was it protection or not? Was it the hitting coach?  Is it a change in philosophy? Is he more aggressive down the line up? More passive towards the top? Its got to be something for such drastic results.

I know beer league softball is not the same as MLB, but I had a buddy and he would hit close to .900 if he was in the lead off spot, and close to .400 in another other spot in the line up. Some guys are just more comfortable in certain spots.......

 

Quote from MrPadre19 on November 21, 2022, 9:02 pm

The time in SD is the only time those AB’s in the 2 hole were consistent…and he was struggling for different reasons.

I think this discussion is irrelevant….90% of his AB’s before he got here were  “not” in the 2 hole….so small sample size.

Tatis is best RBI guy….so lead him off?

Soto is best OBP guy….so hit him 4th?

Bottom line…as I said….Tatis/Soto/Machado are 1,1a,1b in the lineup…hit them anywhere and if they stay healthy we will be fine.

To me it’s more about who hits in front of them and behind that is going to be the difference.

 

 

 

Quote from MrPadre19 on November 21, 2022, 9:13 pm

In 2018 he had “8” games in the 4 hole.

In 2019 he only had “20” games out of the 4 hole.

In 2020 he only had 13 games “in” the 4 hole

In 2021 he didn’t even hit 4th once.

Doesn’t seem like it’s the deciding factor to me…plus he’s pretty damn good no matter where he hits…other than the last few months of 22’.

Quote from fenn68 on November 22, 2022, 4:15 am

Always dangerous to totally focus on historical stats BUT maybe should toss into the Soto discussion Tatis’ 2021 …

1. Tatis’ WORST OPS inning is the 1st inning (.702 in 103 AB). He had a OPS over 1.000 in the 2-3-4-5-7.

2. Batting 1st (1.106 OPS in 102 AB) and 4th (1.156 OPS in 114 AB) BUT batting 2nd (.865 OPS in 242 AB) and note only 16 AB in the 3rd hole.

So for the “stats” guys … Tatis should be batting 4th where he has his best OPS plus minimizes his batting in the 1st inning (his worst).

Pre-Melvin but Padres seems to like hitting him 2nd … 242 AB (about half is AB). Interesting to see if Melvin has a different idea.

So how about Machado - Soto (L) - Tatis?

Should note that I think it would be very advantageous to have Soto bat with a runner on 1st (so not leading-off). Soto has one of the highest exit velocities and with the shift history opening up the right side by having the 1B hold a runner on, Soto should have a great opportunity to get on and set-up the inning with 2 on-base if he does not drive the runner in.

That scenario might make a case for adding a legit OBP lead-off hitter followed by Machado - Soto (L) - Tatis.

Then again just historical stats … produced with a different line-up and different baseball.

Quote from MrPadre19 on November 22, 2022, 5:17 am

All this sounds like even more reason to find us an outfielder with high OBP to lead off….then back to my original thoughts of:

FA

Soto

Tatis

Machado

😉

 

Quote from fenn68 on November 22, 2022, 6:25 am

I keep fluctuating between a lead-off type and a slugger for the middle of the line-up … could argue either way … but really don’t know who they can really sign but two routes is an advantage.

Today, I am leading towards a lead-off type … OBP guy to get on base for the Soto-Tatis-Machado. Old school guy likes speed with that OBP … just don’t see that combo (except for the over priced Nimmo) … so pass on the speed and focus on OBP (and defense). Keeping in mind that PHIL made the World Series without a speedster leading off.

Then, since they are RHH heavy … look for a LHH. Also, flexible on field positions. To that end … maybe a LF is in play with Tatis back to SS and shifting Kim/Croney one over.

1. LF … Benintendi (.373 OBP in 2022) … plus defense … est. 4 years / $14MM AAV … Padres will need a longer term OF solution.

2. DH … Brantley (.370 OBP but limited AB due to injury) … est 1 year / $12MM AAV

3. LF … Profar (.331 OBP) … est. 3 years … $10MM AAV

4. LF … Peralta … (.316 OPS) … est 1 year … $8MM AAV

5. LF … Gamel … (324 OPS) … est 1 year … $8MM AAV

6. DH/LF … Yoshida … wild card out of Japan with a history of outstanding OBP … limited defense in LF … wild guess on contract given the “unknown” and limited defensive options should be lower than Benintendi … maybe 4 years at $10-12MM?

If that is the right zone for Yoshida … and the revenue / appeal he would generate from Japan (especially if combined with Senga) … might opt to gamble on him.

Of course if money is less a concern … Yoshida AND Benintendi for $25MM and really make for a long long line-up.