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2023 offseason
#1281 · November 21, 2022, 12:50 pm
Quote from MrPadre19 on November 21, 2022, 12:37 pmIf we bring in a guy that can lead off IMO Soto then hits 2nd again (due to his OBP) with Tatis and Machado behind him.
We all feel different obviously…all that matters in the end though is what Melvin thinks.
Once again, many on here are focused on his OBP.
I am focused on what he was brought here for (IMO) his SLG. You realize that his career SLG % is better than Machados? By almost 10%! Sure, he is great at OBP as well, but he could/should be the best RBI/Slugger on the team. In reality, he should be hitting 3rd.
Thats why I want him back in a spot where all of his ability is at its best, and most useful.
But of course your last statement is most correct, it matters what Melvin thinks.
#1282 · November 21, 2022, 1:07 pm
It all depends who we sign really.. if it's just Abreu 1B/DH and Fernando in LF..with DH (Dixon/Campy)
Then our best lineuobis Tati/Soto/Manny/Abreu/Crone/(Campy-Dixon)/Kim/Grish/Nola.. if we sign another Bat (or trade for one) - then depending on what they bring to the table..ie high OBP then I may slide Soto and all down one..of it is a slg type like Voit I would leave it the same
#1283 · November 21, 2022, 1:14 pm
Over the course of a season dropping a hitter from 2nd to 4th costs them about 30 PAs. On last year's team the difference was 33. Taking those PAs away from arguably the best hitter on the planet on the idea that he changes as a hitter based on where his name is written on a whiteboard makes no sense.
#1284 · November 21, 2022, 1:27 pm
Quote from Jeremy Hill on November 21, 2022, 1:14 pmOver the course of a season dropping a hitter from 2nd to 4th costs them about 30 PAs. On last year's team the difference was 33. Taking those PAs away from arguably the best hitter on the planet on the idea that he changes as a hitter based on where his name is written on a whiteboard makes no sense.
If they are 33 extra ABs of S@*t, then it doesnt really matter, does it. I want him driving in guys, not just getting on base.
You still havent given me any proof that he is a better hitter at the 2 spot, than at #4.
#1285 · November 21, 2022, 1:40 pm
It really does depend on who else the Padres add … lead-off type / OBP guy or a middle order SLG.
Soto is going to hit for OBP/SLG no matter where he is in the line-up … he should be the best hitter on the Padres. However, do want to maximize his range of skills. For me that puts him between Tatis (on base with base stealing threat and speed to go 1st to home) and Machado (big bat with power / RBI potential). Soto in that sequence should get better pitches … have a big hole on the right side as they hold Tatis on … and get on base for Machado. R-L-R hitting sequence.
So if they add a lead-off type (1) - Tatis (2) - Soto (3) - Machado (4)
If the add a slugging middle of the order: Tatis (1) - Soto (2) - Machado (3) - SLG Add (4) and then put a decent OBP guy at #9 so Tatis gets to hit with runners on base after the first inning.
At this point in his career don’t want to mute Tatis’ base running skill (a major reason why the Padres and fans loved him) plus given his year layoff he may benefit from both Soto and Machado after him forcing pitchers to given him better pitches.
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#1286 · November 21, 2022, 1:46 pm
Fact is we have multiple guys we want to get those extra 33 AB’s but who can also drive in runs.
Good problem to have.
Bottom line…you could hit Tatis/Soto/Machado anywhere in the top 4 spots and be fine.Maybe BoMel makes the decision based on matchups ie: who’s pitching.
If you put Soto in the 2 hole to take advantage of his OBP it’s not like the guys behind him (Tatis/Machado for me) have no Slug .and conversely if you hit Soto 4th it’s not like the guys ahead can’t get on base.
Like I said… good problem to have.
Let’s see who we get to play 1b and DH then we can all take a guess at the Opening day lineup.
#1287 · November 21, 2022, 1:59 pm
That's not the argument. If you want to argue that Soto's slugging is more valuable in the 4 hole I'm fine with that. It's the argument that he slugs because he's in the 4 hole or doesn't because he's in the 2 hole I think is ridiculous. Correlation is not causation.
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#1288 · November 21, 2022, 3:19 pm
Quote from BoosterSD on November 19, 2022, 3:11 pmQuote from Henry Silvestre on November 19, 2022, 3:06 pmMicheal Bradley Astros OF ...FA.. 35 yr old lefty professional hitter
Brantley, no way he is leaving HOU. Too easy for him to hit there.
Pretty sure Brantley can hit anywhere … my concern is that he had labrum surgery last August (I think) and turning 36 will that hamper his hitting going into 2023?
If the meds are fine … the guy can hit … LHH more a DH type and estimates he would sign a one year deal about $12MM so no long term commitment in the win now mode.
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Maybe near ST … if he does not find a home … might the Padres take a gamble (low cost) on Matt Carpenter … LHH utility type. Last few years in STL were underwhelming but did show some life with NYY last season (also ended with injury). Even when struggling with STL he did OK with OBP and he has that playoff experience with two strong organizations … STL/NYY.
Not that the internal options are that compelling for the bench … Batten, Rosario, Dixon.
#1289 · November 21, 2022, 3:37 pm
Quote from Jeremy Hill on November 21, 2022, 1:59 pmThat's not the argument. If you want to argue that Soto's slugging is more valuable in the 4 hole I'm fine with that. It's the argument that he slugs because he's in the 4 hole or doesn't because he's in the 2 hole I think is ridiculous. Correlation is not causation.
I think that's got to be the argument, right? If this guy is supposed to be the best hitter on the planet, the next Ted Williams, he's gotta be in a run producing role. Where he's coming to the plate with runners aboard( more likely from 4 than 2), giving him the chance to produce as many runs as possible( which is, after all, the name of the game)
#1290 · November 21, 2022, 4:35 pm
Quote from Jeremy Hill on November 21, 2022, 1:59 pmThat's not the argument. If you want to argue that Soto's slugging is more valuable in the 4 hole I'm fine with that. It's the argument that he slugs because he's in the 4 hole or doesn't because he's in the 2 hole I think is ridiculous. Correlation is not causation.
You may think its ridiculous, but 4 of his 5 years of stats says that its true. 1 year aboration, but 4 of 5 years of stats where his slug percentage says he is a better slugger in the 4 spot.
So if you want a $24M obp guy in guy, by all means, bat him 2nd. If you want the generational hitter that he is with all of it, OBP, BA, and SLG, bat him 4th.
4 years of stats dont lie.