Quote from BoosterSD on November 22, 2022, 8:08 am

Quote from fenn68 on November 22, 2022, 6:25 am

I keep fluctuating between a lead-off type and a slugger for the middle of the line-up … could argue either way … but really don’t know who they can really sign but two routes is an advantage.

Today, I am leading towards a lead-off type … OBP guy to get on base for the Soto-Tatis-Machado. Old school guy likes speed with that OBP … just don’t see that combo (except for the over priced Nimmo) … so pass on the speed and focus on OBP (and defense). Keeping in mind that PHIL made the World Series without a speedster leading off.

 

Maybe its time to revisit the idea of a trade for Winker, even with his down BA last season, he still had a .344 OBP. His career OBP is .374, and his strike outs to walks are really close, and he does not strike out a lot. I liked Winker when he was in CIN, and I did not hear of any clubhouse issues there. So maybe it was related to this last season in SEA. And I think our clubhouse is strong enough with all the veterans that we have, to handle adding Winker, if its even an issue.

SD gets Winker and SEA gets Knehr. Winker has a 2023 salary of $8.25M, so maybe SD adds another prospect, and SEA sends some cash to assist SD.

Quote from MrPadre19 on November 22, 2022, 8:13 am

Quote from BoosterSD on November 22, 2022, 6:28 am

Quote from fenn68 on November 22, 2022, 4:15 am

So how about Machado - Soto (L) - Tatis?

That scenario might make a case for adding a legit OBP lead-off hitter followed by Machado - Soto (L) - Tatis.

Then again just historical stats … produced with a different line-up and different baseball.

I get it how stats always have a history, different back grounds, and extenuating circumstances with them. And yes they need to be taken with a grain of salt, but is this not why they have stat analysts in the FO, to put the players in the best spot to succeed. I am sure they can dig deeper than I can to figure out who produces best where.

Yes, I would love if SD could get a legit lead off guy, that is on base guy and some speed, and set the table for the power guys. Just not sure who that guy would be, and I dont think he is on the team right now. It could come from an OFer, it could come from a 2B, and slide Crone to 1B, or 1B that might have some base running skills.

Probably a lot of trade options we haven’t considered….Jon Berti (who has been mentioned) is one.

 

Quote from BoosterSD on November 22, 2022, 8:15 am

Quote from fenn68 on November 22, 2022, 6:25 am

I keep fluctuating between a lead-off type and a slugger for the middle of the line-up … could argue either way … but really don’t know who they can really sign but two routes is an advantage.

 

I am beginning to get intrigued by Yandy Diaz, and trading for him. His projected arb number is $5.4M. He would be a nice 5th hitter just before Crone at #6.

SD gets Diaz, and TAM gets Campusano and Zavala.

Adding Diaz and Winker would add $13.65M, less than Yoshida or Benintendi, and we improve 2 positions. We would need to find a back up catcher in this scenario, we could bring back Alfaro for less money hopefully, or maybe Hedges for the defense, or bounce back candidate (and LHH) Tucker Barnhart. All should be around $2-3M. That should leave us enough money to chase Senga, Walker, Quintana, plus Rucinski.

Then our daily line up would be Winker, Machado, Soto, Tatis, Diaz, Crone, Kim, Grisham, Nola.

Quote from BoosterSD on November 22, 2022, 8:19 am

Quote from MrPadre19 on November 22, 2022, 8:13 am

Probably a lot of trade options we have n’t considered….Jon Berti (who has been mentioned) is one.

 

Yes, I kind of always come back to Berti as well. I believe he lead the MLs in stolen bases last season. Partly because Tatis didnt play ;-).

The one reason I didnt not suggest him in this reply to Fenn, is his OBP (.325 lifetime) is a little lower than the "pure" OBP type Fenn was suggesting. Perhaps with Machado, Soto, Tatis sitting behind Berti, he become a little more accepting of a walk, and increase his OBP.

Quote from 3fingersplit on November 22, 2022, 8:52 am

I would be very concerned about Tatis being a base stealing threat and the injury potential coming off a broken wrist and shoulder surgery.....he doesn't slide feet first and always is head first and it's hard to teach or learn the right way to slide feet first so you don't take a throw in the face or keep from jamming your wrist sliding....we need a lead off hitter and absent an acquisition....who on this team is serviceable in the #1 spot besides wasting Tatis there ?

Quote from BoosterSD on November 22, 2022, 9:34 am

Quote from 3fingersplit on November 22, 2022, 8:52 am

I would be very concerned about Tatis being a base stealing threat and the injury potential coming off a broken wrist and shoulder surgery.....he doesn't slide feet first and always is head first and it's hard to teach or learn the right way to slide feet first so you don't take a throw in the face or keep from jamming your wrist sliding....we need a lead off hitter and absent an acquisition....who on this team is serviceable in the #1 spot besides wasting Tatis there ?

Unfortunately, all our high OBP are also our sluggers in Tatis, Soto, and Machado. I think Kim was a serviceable lead off hitter versus LHP, and we saw that quite a bit in the second half. I wish Grisham was the answer, even just against RHP, at this time he is not. Dont know if you would want to trust that to a rookie in Rosario. Crone doesnt seem to be the lead off hitter type, and probably better served down in the line up around 5-6.

Honestly, I dont think we really have that player on the team. IMO needs to be a FA signing or a trade to get that guy.

With the lack of soon to be ready OFers in the system, SD might just have to bite the bullet and sign Benintendi. LHH, with a career BA of .279 and a career OBP of .351. Or trade for Winker.

Quote from fenn68 on November 22, 2022, 9:37 am

Quote from 3fingersplit on November 22, 2022, 8:52 am

I would be very concerned about Tatis being a base stealing threat and the injury potential coming off a broken wrist and shoulder surgery.....he doesn't slide feet first and always is head first and it's hard to teach or learn the right way to slide feet first so you don't take a throw in the face or keep from jamming your wrist sliding....we need a lead off hitter and absent an acquisition....who on this team is serviceable in the #1 spot besides wasting Tatis there ?

Same worry here. If you are looking for a plus OBP guy (excluding Tatis, Soto, Machado) ... nothing much internal.

Last season the next level were "average" with Cronenworth (.333), Kim (.325), and Nola (.321) with Cronenworth because of his power the slightly better wRC+. I guess a platoon for the lead-off with Cronenworth vs RHP and Kim vs LHP might get that up a bit with Tatis, Soto, and Machado following ... or will they alter their approach to try for more walks / see more pitches while pitchers come after them harder knowing what follows resulting in OBP / wRC+ going down?

Don't want Soto or Machado leading off with no one on base muting their overall skills for RBI potential.

Don't really see a major lead-off type on the trade market ... plus Padres don't really have much minor league assets to get a top OBP player. Not going to trade one of the few top prospects for and expensive short term fill who in not in the elite category.

So, for me, boils down to spend for a FA signing of a top OBP guy OR go with the Kim/Cronenworth platoon for lead off and go for the quality middle of the order bat for behind the big three.

For Preller it may fall to who ever will sign for the right price ... think both routes would work ... but bias toward some proven quality.

Quote from BoosterSD on November 22, 2022, 10:15 am

If we are thinking along this line right now for the SD batting line up, 1. TBD, 2. Machado, 3. Soto, 4. Tatis, 5. TBD, 6. Crone, 7. Kim, 8. Grisham, 9. Nola. That leaves 2 bats for Preller to find. And that can be any combo of Corner OFer, 2B, 1B, and/or DH type.

Then when we look to the pitching side, rotation of 1. Darvish, 2. Musgrove, 3. Snell, 4. TBD, 5. Martinez, 6. TBD if going a 6 man rotation.

#4 SP, I think SD gets outbid for Senga, so leaves a choice between Walker, Tallion, Quintana, Syndergaard, etc..

#6 SP could be filled with a combo of Groome, Weathers, Morejon, or sign Rucinski.

Still trying to figure out the logical choices for the two bats. And like Fenn, I like the idea of at least one of them being LHHer since we are fairly RHH heavy.

2 bats and 2 SPs. And the budget is unknown at this time.

Plus, Preller still has his crazy/shocking out of nowhere move that will catch all of us off guard to make. And then we will all scramble to figure out the fits after that move.

 

Quote from Henry Silvestre on November 22, 2022, 10:15 am

Cedric Mullins ?? In a trade involving Grish +++ BP arms and prospects might be the best solution.. his OBP is not ideal high .320s but he hasn't had Soto/Manny/Tatis protection behind him either... he has gone north of .350 previously ..can he do it again?? Grish WAR 2.6.. Mullins 3.8 so we need to add a good prospect and 2 BP arms

https://stathead.com/baseball/player-comparison.cgi?player_id2=grishtr01&type=b&player_id1=mullice01&sum=0&request=1

These 2 a lot closer than I thought.. Grish has more power.. And better dWar 3 to 1.. Mullins a much better bat with a *BP (Before Petco)