Quote from JasonE135 on August 26, 2022, 2:28 pm

Quote from Henry Silvestre on August 26, 2022, 1:32 pm

Out of our top 30 specs as currently (MLB) ranked.. 9 are ETA 2022/23... only 3 position players in Rosario/Campusano and Howell (speedy defender can play all over elite speed tool).. I only see Rosario and Campy helping in 23 from that list..Ornelas eta is 2024.. so he would need a tremendous winter and ST showing to put himself in the convo

The Padres are going to be bringing up nothing but relievers, spot starters (far from quality) and backup fielders with no chance of becoming regular players for the next 2-4 years. All of our additions will have to come via free agency.

Quote from fenn68 on August 26, 2022, 2:53 pm

Quote from JasonE135 on August 26, 2022, 2:28 pm

Quote from Henry Silvestre on August 26, 2022, 1:32 pm

Out of our top 30 specs as currently (MLB) ranked.. 9 are ETA 2022/23... only 3 position players in Rosario/Campusano and Howell (speedy defender can play all over elite speed tool).. I only see Rosario and Campy helping in 23 from that list..Ornelas eta is 2024.. so he would need a tremendous winter and ST showing to put himself in the convo

The Padres are going to be bringing up nothing but relievers, spot starters (far from quality) and backup fielders with no chance of becoming regular players for the next 2-4 years. All of our additions will have to come via free agency.

Agree and there will just be a pragmatic problem of adding enough quality FA to fill a massive number of holes … first there will not be that much FA quality and there will be other teams bidding them up and signing them. With little front line prospects near term … a 26 man roster will be a real challenge to construct.

 

 

Quote from Henry Silvestre on August 26, 2022, 4:03 pm

Quote from fenn68 on August 26, 2022, 2:53 pm

Quote from JasonE135 on August 26, 2022, 2:28 pm

Quote from Henry Silvestre on August 26, 2022, 1:32 pm

Out of our top 30 specs as currently (MLB) ranked.. 9 are ETA 2022/23... only 3 position players in Rosario/Campusano and Howell (speedy defender can play all over elite speed tool).. I only see Rosario and Campy helping in 23 from that list..Ornelas eta is 2024.. so he would need a tremendous winter and ST showing to put himself in the convo

The Padres are going to be bringing up nothing but relievers, spot starters (far from quality) and backup fielders with no chance of becoming regular players for the next 2-4 years. All of our additions will have to come via free agency.

Agree and there will just be a pragmatic problem of adding enough quality FA to fill a massive number of holes … first there will not be that much FA quality and there will be other teams bidding them up and signing them. With little front line prospects near term … a 26 man roster will be a real challenge to construct.

 

 

Manny/Soto/Tatis/Crone/Grish/Azocar/Kim/Nola/Campusano/Rosario/Kohlwey/Batten/

Need 1 position player

Musgrove/Snell/Yu/Morejon/Groome/Hader/Pomz/Adams/Wilson/Garcia/Cristmat/Baez/Castillo/

That's 13 pitchers..with more in AAA

Assumes Martinez/Suarez/Profar all opt out

So 26 not a challenge at all.. this is an 85 win team .. and with $50mil to get better in 2023

2024 will be more of a challenge in my opinion but it could also be a boom depending on 23 Draft ..development at A+/AA levels in 2023 and some BP arms maybe traded for OF AA/AAA guys this offseason...

Quote from Henry Silvestre on August 27, 2022, 5:37 am

I actually love this role for Myers (4th OF/semi regular playing time 1B/OF/PH/DH).. BUT at how much is too much $$ wise is the ??

I see Gallo/Peralta (minus 1B) /Myers sort of in the same $$$ spectrum

I see Benintendi/Comforto/Nimmo/Profar a bit higher $$$ wise

Who makes more sense .. what's the highest we should go/can afford ? Can we resign a Drury/Wil duo for < than a Profar (one player).. which makes us better? Is Tatis/(Grisham/Azocar)/Soto our LF/CF/RF OF 80% of the time?? If so does Wil/Drury DH/1B/occasional OF make more sense than bringing back Profar alone.. how much does Bell want? Is Bell/Wil a compromise ?? All ? That AJP will have to work around

Quote from Henry Silvestre on August 27, 2022, 5:39 am

Wil (like Pham) also makes a ton of sense for teams like the Reds/Royals/Pitt etc as a cheapish (Pham got $8 mil or so/Joc $6mil) type FA add on guaranteed starter ABs..so there is that

Quote from Henry Silvestre on August 27, 2022, 5:43 am

Anyone have a list of potential arb 2 or arb 3 guys for this offseason..kind of curious who maybe made available in the offseason..

For all mlb not SDP

Quote from Henry Silvestre on August 27, 2022, 6:30 am

Man the amount of SP in FA (sheer volume and a solid # of top of rotation arms) might be a blessing in disguise to Padres.. only so many $$ to go around and the SS FA class is insane .. so not clear who gets the $$ and who slips through the cracks.. but an arm like Davies (solid #4 type) should be available cheap cheap.. and an arm like Tyler Anderson (LAD) is going to get paid BIG $$ and it may regress...

 

BTW anyone else notice Salvi and Manny having full on convo when Manny was batting.. seems like there is a lot of love between those 2.. I know his $$ is ridiculous expensive ..but he would be a huge upgrade at C.. older...not sure KC pays 1/2 his remaining $$ (they would have to) in a Campusano + type exchange to match their youth movement..then again Salvi the perfect Vet leader for a young club.. so likely not available

KC has some good looking position players on hand... seems to be 10 P shy of making noise though...

Quote from fenn68 on August 27, 2022, 6:54 am

A lot (both money-wise and position wise) will rest on the opt in out out calls by Profar - Martinez - Suarez. The opt ins take up payroll but may reduce the need for an add and maybe open up a trade chip. The opt outs will open payroll but require replacement …maybe more expensive that their opt in levels for the same productivity. Preller will not really know that until just after the World Series … unless he likes them all and in October he negotiates new deals.

As for adds, I would not spend much (if anything) on players to be ticketed as part-time / back-ups. Rather focus the money on starters (1B / SP / C) and, at the start of the season, gamble on a low cost bench then react mid-season as needed to boost the bench. So, would not expect spending $6-8MM on a bench piece like Myers, Drury, or even Alfaro.

IF the option players all opt in (or Preller gives them new contracts), I have the returning roster right at the CBT threshold (assumed ARB decisions). So, likely in the penalty zone with any add UNLESS they move a contract (or two) … and not many options with movable significant contracts. That will make it difficult to add one quality FA (and not likely two) … putting more pressure on a low cost bench.

Trading any significant contract requires trading a potentially productive player and needs to be from a position of strength … so, the RP (always in demand) should be in play (Hader / Pomeranz / Suarez). Or if Profar opts in dealing Profar or Kim opens some space with the assumption Tatis returns in either LF or SS. Kim should also get a decent player (prospect) in return.

Can the Padres contend in 2023 with Soto - Grisham/Azocar - Tatis - Machado - Kim - Cronenworth/Rosario - Profar/Beaty - Nola/Campusano and a low cost bench piece as the offense?

Is that offense better positioned to win than a SP staff of Musgrove - Snell - Darvish the #4-5 out of Morejon - Martinez - Groome - Knehr? Remember it is a 162 game season with need to cover injuries. Pen looks to be OK if Martinez / Suarez opt in.

If only one costly add, probably would go SP … then consider a second SP add. Ride with the offense if Profar returns.

Quote from Henry Silvestre on August 27, 2022, 7:21 am

Quote from fenn68 on August 27, 2022, 6:54 am

A lot (both money-wise and position wise) will rest on the opt in out out calls by Profar - Martinez - Suarez. The opt ins take up payroll but may reduce the need for an add and maybe open up a trade chip. The opt outs will open payroll but require replacement …maybe more expensive that their opt in levels for the same productivity. Preller will not really know that until just after the World Series … unless he likes them all and in October he negotiates new deals.

As for adds, I would not spend much (if anything) on players to be ticketed as part-time / back-ups. Rather focus the money on starters (1B / SP / C) and, at the start of the season, gamble on a low cost bench then react mid-season as needed to boost the bench. So, would not expect spending $6-8MM on a bench piece like Myers, Drury, or even Alfaro.

IF the option players all opt in (or Preller gives them new contracts), I have the returning roster right at the CBT threshold (assumed ARB decisions). So, likely in the penalty zone with any add UNLESS they move a contract (or two) … and not many options with movable significant contracts. That will make it difficult to add one quality FA (and not likely two) … putting more pressure on a low cost bench.

Trading any significant contract requires trading a potentially productive player and needs to be from a position of strength … so, the RP (always in demand) should be in play (Hader / Pomeranz / Suarez). Or if Profar opts in dealing Profar or Kim opens some space with the assumption Tatis returns in either LF or SS. Kim should also get a decent player (prospect) in return.

Can the Padres contend in 2023 with Soto - Grisham/Azocar - Tatis - Machado - Kim - Cronenworth/Rosario - Profar/Beaty - Nola/Campusano and a low cost bench piece as the offense?

Is that offense better positioned to win than a SP staff of Musgrove - Snell - Darvish the #4-5 out of Morejon - Martinez - Groome - Knehr? Remember it is a 162 game season with need to cover injuries. Pen looks to be OK if Martinez / Suarez opt in.

If only one costly add, probably would go SP … then consider a second SP add. Ride with the offense if Profar returns.

I mean if Tatis is Tatis like when he returns he covers (Bell + Drury HRs/RBIs etc) by himself.. a lineup vs LHP of Kim/Soto/Manny/Tatis 1-4 would be pretty Amazing... a lineup of Tatis/Soto/Manny 1-3 vs RHP needs a thumper behind Manny to be equally potent... perhaps keeping Bell 5th vs lhp ..cleanup vs RHP is the right call..

Perhaps our old friend Voit (likely Non- tendered arb 3) DH/1B in a similar role makes more sense $$$ wise

But yeah 2023 opt ins may decide how active or inactive this team is in the offseason.. can definetely see Garcia /Pomz/Hader/Suarez (in that order ..1 or 2 of them) being dealt for needs or upper minor specs

Our Bench (in my opinion) is pretty well set for 2023

1. CAMPUSANO DH/C/PH

2. BEATTY COF/1B/DH/PH

3. ROSARIO 3B/2B/SS/DH/PH

4. AZOCAR CF/OF/PR/PH (platoon)

* Note this bench assumes Tatis/Crone/Kim coexist 1-9 as DH/SS/1B and OF somehow..obviously if Profar is back.. Those would be 4 spots for 4 players.. any other adds would bump a bench guy out since all 9 positions 1B to DH would be covered..

Not sure how much value (trade) Alfaro and Nola would have in the offseason.. nor if we have enough pieces RP + Wethers + Khner type young SP.. to entice a team like Reds or Oak (more so Reds) on a Tyler Stephenson /Sean Murphy type move.. perhaps with a 3rd team in need if 1 or 2 BP arms sending specs to them