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2023 offseason
#1141 · November 17, 2022, 10:56 am
Quote from BoosterSD on November 17, 2022, 9:53 amQuote from Henry Silvestre on November 17, 2022, 9:38 am50. Drew Rucinski, RHP. Two years, $9MM.
How are we feeling about Rucinski as a potential 6th SP or even 5th if we were to miss out on some of the arms (Senga/Taillon/Stripling/Walker) we've been talking about... that $4.5 per AAV fills the narrative ..KBO is not JPN so riskier but his metrics look legit..
***Oh and CBT # is $233 mil for 2023... BUT it increases to $237 mil for 2024
You would think for that money, Davies is the much better option. ML success, and a very good year in SD.
Sort of depends on IF they sign Senga (or similar). If they do ... just don't put money into another SP/swing man. If needed in the season, make a minor deal.
If they don't, they could have $15MM to redeploy if they had ticketed that for a better SP. So some options for both SP and #6 swing man.
I just don't have any feel for Rucinski but at potentially $4.5MM AAV and MLBTR having him #50 on their FA ranking must mean he is at least worthy or consideration. Padres did well with Suarez and Martinez under similar paths ... so maybe
Like Davies but for whatever reason he did not get a good contract last winter and is not on the MLBTR top FA list ... so is there something that is going on we don't see? If he is as good (or near as good) has his past he should be getting greater than $4.5MM AAV. Need more insight before relying on his past performance.
#1142 · November 17, 2022, 11:02 am
Quote from Jeremy Hill on November 17, 2022, 10:48 amQuote from Henry Silvestre on November 17, 2022, 7:06 amQuote from fenn68 on November 17, 2022, 6:14 amHow about signing:
Koudai Senga ($75MM/5) for that SP role
Masataka Yoshida ($75MM/5) for LHH as DH/LF
That is plus $30MM AAV (pushing the upper limits I would guess of payroll space) BUT adding Senga and Yoshida to Darvish (and to some degree Suarez and Martinez) would explode the Padres popularity in Japan … and result in a huge revenue increase for the Padres from Japan AND probably would help future signings of prospect from Japan.
Maybe some overpay to sign from a pure baseball perspective but maybe a smart business decision?
Sign Otani after 2023 and own Japan … media an fans? (Can skip Soto for the money).
If they do this and add Othani next FA cycle they can run a $350mil payroll for the next 5+ yrs and still be very profitable..the JPN sponsorships + media $$ + merchandising streams would become Oceans .. and SDP could profit close to $500mil per yr if not more.. covering all payroll overage and then some..
BTW- Martinez /Suarez and Senga are great friends... and Yu is his mentor and offseason workout partner .. SENGA + Abreu would be great.. SENGA + Yoshida would be next level advantage AJP..
You can't be serious with those numbers. I'm sure there's some creative accounting involved, but the one team that actually posts their financials publicly reported revenue of about 600m. That's the Braves coming off of a World Series. You can't honestly believe that Japan alone would generate nearly a billion dollars. An initial star level player like Darvish generates a modest bump. I suspect there would be diminishing returns on each additional add. The total amount would be a small fraction of what you're suggesting regardless.
Quote from Jeremy Hill on November 17, 2022, 10:48 amQuote from Henry Silvestre on November 17, 2022, 7:06 amQuote from fenn68 on November 17, 2022, 6:14 amHow about signing:
Koudai Senga ($75MM/5) for that SP role
Masataka Yoshida ($75MM/5) for LHH as DH/LF
That is plus $30MM AAV (pushing the upper limits I would guess of payroll space) BUT adding Senga and Yoshida to Darvish (and to some degree Suarez and Martinez) would explode the Padres popularity in Japan … and result in a huge revenue increase for the Padres from Japan AND probably would help future signings of prospect from Japan.
Maybe some overpay to sign from a pure baseball perspective but maybe a smart business decision?
Sign Otani after 2023 and own Japan … media an fans? (Can skip Soto for the money).
If they do this and add Othani next FA cycle they can run a $350mil payroll for the next 5+ yrs and still be very profitable..the JPN sponsorships + media $$ + merchandising streams would become Oceans .. and SDP could profit close to $500mil per yr if not more.. covering all payroll overage and then some..
BTW- Martinez /Suarez and Senga are great friends... and Yu is his mentor and offseason workout partner .. SENGA + Abreu would be great.. SENGA + Yoshida would be next level advantage AJP..
You can't be serious with those numbers. I'm sure there's some creative accounting involved, but the one team that actually posts their financials publicly reported revenue of about 600m. That's the Braves coming off of a World Series. You can't honestly believe that Japan alone would generate nearly a billion dollars. An initial star level player like Darvish generates a modest bump. I suspect there would be diminishing returns on each additional add. The total amount would be a small fraction of what you're suggesting regardless.
The bump Japan revenue only has to be enough to cover the "overpay" in my mind ... at the core they are paying for talent to fill holes. Two new "stars" from Japan arriving in MLB should generate enough hype to generate new incremental revenue. Think the revenue generated by Darvish is fading given his length of time in the US.
#1143 · November 17, 2022, 11:19 am
Drew Rucinski going to be 34 next year but last 4 seasons in KBO averaged 183 innings per year. Including a very good 2022. Would love him on a short term deal and him to be the 6th starter. pic.twitter.com/a2ofFNXJvd
— Giannis Auntiegotapoodle (@TooMuchMortons_) November 17, 2022
Funky delivery
#1144 · November 17, 2022, 11:44 am
Quote from Henry Silvestre on November 17, 2022, 9:38 am50. Drew Rucinski, RHP. Two years, $9MM.
How are we feeling about Rucinski as a potential 6th SP or even 5th if we were to miss out on some of the arms (Senga/Taillon/Stripling/Walker) we've been talking about... that $4.5 per AAV fills the narrative ..KBO is not JPN so riskier but his metrics look legit..
***Oh and CBT # is $233 mil for 2023... BUT it increases to $237 mil for 2024
Would be good to look at compare his numbers to Merril Kelly, who pitched for 4 years in the Korean League prior to signing with AZ.
That could be a good gauge as to the level of success Rucinski could have in the MLs.
#1145 · November 17, 2022, 11:47 am
Quote from fenn68 on November 17, 2022, 10:56 amLike Davies but for whatever reason he did not get a good contract last winter and is not on the MLBTR top FA list ... so is there something that is going on we don't see? If he is as good (or near as good) has his past he should be getting greater than $4.5MM AAV. Need more insight before relying on his past performance.
Yeah, not sure why there is not much love for Davies. He is good to post every 5th day, gets you about 150 innings, and usually keeps you in games, and gives the offense a chance.
Maybe because he is "steady" and not a lot to dream on, gets him overlooked in things like MLBTR Top 50 FA.
#1146 · November 17, 2022, 12:40 pm
How is Lamet getting 1/5.. ?? 6.12 ERA.. wtf
#1147 · November 17, 2022, 1:54 pm
Quote from BoosterSD on November 17, 2022, 11:44 amQuote from Henry Silvestre on November 17, 2022, 9:38 am50. Drew Rucinski, RHP. Two years, $9MM.
How are we feeling about Rucinski as a potential 6th SP or even 5th if we were to miss out on some of the arms (Senga/Taillon/Stripling/Walker) we've been talking about... that $4.5 per AAV fills the narrative ..KBO is not JPN so riskier but his metrics look legit..
***Oh and CBT # is $233 mil for 2023... BUT it increases to $237 mil for 2024
Would be good to look at compare his numbers to Merril Kelly, who pitched for 4 years in the Korean League prior to signing with AZ.
That could be a good gauge as to the level of success Rucinski could have in the MLs.
Well each pitched 4 years in Korea … each made about 30 starts per year … each pitched about 180 innings per year BUT
Kelly ERA at 3.86 and Rucinski at 3.06 … so based on that measure Rucinski is BETTER than Kelly in about the same sample size. (Of course, different timeframes and the stuff that was successful may not translate to MLB equally).
That seems to be enough to consider him if it is a 2 year deal / $4.5MM AAV at age 34. We just saw Lamet get a one year $5MM deal … and we know he has issues as a pitcher in the ML.
For a #5 SP … most wanted an innings eater who was just decent … he sure seems to fit that profile. Maybe even has some upside.
#1148 · November 17, 2022, 2:11 pm
Quote from BoosterSD on November 17, 2022, 11:47 amQuote from fenn68 on November 17, 2022, 10:56 amLike Davies but for whatever reason he did not get a good contract last winter and is not on the MLBTR top FA list ... so is there something that is going on we don't see? If he is as good (or near as good) has his past he should be getting greater than $4.5MM AAV. Need more insight before relying on his past performance.Yeah, not sure why there is not much love for Davies. He is good to post every 5th day, gets you about 150 innings, and usually keeps you in games, and gives the offense a chance.
Maybe because he is "steady" and not a lot to dream on, gets him overlooked in things like MLBTR Top 50 FA.
Did note that after a bad 2021 with the Cubs … Davis could not get anyone to sign him until mid-ST 2022 and then at (for him) a low contract.
So, 30 MLB teams last winter … most needed SP at a low cost … did not find Davies appealing at anything more than $1.750MM. This with Boras as his agent … and even he could not get some team to bite.
Side: not sure that his ugly divorce saga in 2022 is helping his case.
#1149 · November 17, 2022, 2:27 pm
Quote from fenn68 on November 17, 2022, 2:11 pmSide: not sure that his ugly divorce saga in 2022 is helping his case.
Preller and Seidler do like good guys with character, so maybe an issue.
So maybe Rucinski is a better option. Kelly has worked out OK in the desert.
#1150 · November 17, 2022, 2:44 pm
A note on MLBTR on a CBA change on guaranteed contracts. The old rule was if a player who was arbitration eligible was tendered a contract (or awarded a salary in ARB) could get cut in ST and only paid 25%. Now they will get the full contract.
Might that change the thinking on some arb eligible / non-tender candidates both for the Padres and other teams … leading to more non-tenders?
If they offer Alfaro his 2021 salary (some rules on how much lower the offer can be) they are on the hook for about $2.8MM if they release him pre-ARB and may $3.6MM post arb. Seems like they need to make the call on keeping him 2023 (or the feasibility of trading him) prior to tendering hm a deal.
Might add some interesting new names as FA tomorrow.