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2023 offseason
#1131 · November 17, 2022, 9:14 am
Quote from fenn68 on November 17, 2022, 8:46 amThe more I think about the potential for even “overpaying” for Senga and Yoshida … the more I like the peripheral potential from plus revenue from Japan, the enhanced odds of extending Darvish, securing a strong presence in Japan for future signings.
Projections are good for both vs the alternatives and they do fill large team needs. Senga would end the pursuit of an additional pitcher and make a strong transition into 2024+. Yoshida would give that LHH to a team with no LHH presence arriving internally near term.
Basically could stop there and maybe just upgrade the bench / 9 hitter with league minimum types (either internals or a make good rebound candidate).
For 2023 even if we went $270+ over ..we should be able to field a 24 team at < $237 lux tax ..assume Yu extended..Senga and Yoshida added
Every position player would be back for 2024..Machado opts in (or renegs at =$$ but more yrs likely).. P Yu/Senga/Joe/Martinez could run with a couple of finds (Avila/Groome..2024 arms)..and then run a bare bones experience wise and $$ wise BP..Suarez Cl..Hill 8th..Wilson 7th..Morejon/Baez/Cosgrove/Felipe/Cristmat/Castillo
* AJP could save additional $$ in 24 by replacing Kim or Crone (or both if Tatis moves back to SS by then) with Merrill (assuming he is deemed ready) and Rosario/Howell/Batten (one of them rising up to the occasion of Alcantara type utility role).. This is kind of how I envision AJP is dealing with 2023 ...with an eye of resetting payroll tax in 24..while having most if not all 26/40 spots covered with returnees and upwardly mobile young pieces... Trading Kim or Crone + Next yrs Draft should also deepen our Minor league system close to or greater than it was before Soto trade .. especially with Ethan Salas and Intl signing period coming in January added to the equation.. think this time around College arms and bats early and often may be the way to attack 2023 draft
#1132 · November 17, 2022, 9:15 am
Quote from Henry Silvestre on November 17, 2022, 9:00 amBeen thinking of a way to keep Alfaro and not non-tender him or take him to arb and be on the hook for $900k if cut... why not 3yrs/$5.1 mil ($1.7 per) offer with yearly opt outs @$300k.. #1 would Jorge do this? #2 is this a good strategy for Pads? #3 Does thus make trading Alfaro easier down the line?
I like the idea of Nola/Campy ..and Alfaro 3rd C.. especially if Campy keeps working on his 1B skills over the winter ..
The other option is to non-tender him and elevate Sullivan to 3rd C..Sullivan has extensive innings at other positions and is a solid hitter..hitters. I believe both Jorge and Sullivan are out of options. Sullivan does have greater and cheaper control
Sullivan does have options … but when I checked on him right after the Padres acquired him, he graded out as a poor defensive catcher and not that much of a hitter … sort of a plug a real emergency hole type at the ML level but that is about it. If no 40 man issue they should keep him around (in AAA).
Since it looks as though the Padres will blast past the CBT threshold … I now see no reason to non-tender Alfaro (his $3.6MM is not that much of a problem). He provides more to the team as it is now configured than Batten, Dixon, or Rosario … plus the jury is still out on Campusano. As it stands, C/DH/1B could be a home for Nola, Campusano, Alfaro and even with and add … two would play while one is bench insurance / rotation.
#1133 · November 17, 2022, 9:32 am
Quick and dirty 2024 if they spent $30MM AAV on Senga / Yoshida …
FA (if let go and excluding Darvish) would lower the CBT payroll buy about $39MM … Hader, Snell, Pomeranz, Garcia, and Alfaro. Assuming the threshold increase covers the return to full CBT AAV for Tatis … that leaves a $9MM cushion under the CBT to deal with Darvish and backfill with league minimum types ( or better if Darvish re-signs near his current AAV). Note: wild card risks are Martinez ($8.6MM) or Machado ($30MM) opting out and needing to be replaced at an equal or lesser salary. Plus need to cover some arbitration increase (Cronenworth / Soto / Nola).
Padres would be in good shape offensively … maybe some risk in RP but overall still a contender if Darvish re-signs.
Would be tight to the limit but could be managed.
#1134 · November 17, 2022, 9:38 am
50. Drew Rucinski, RHP. Two years, $9MM.
How are we feeling about Rucinski as a potential 6th SP or even 5th if we were to miss out on some of the arms (Senga/Taillon/Stripling/Walker) we've been talking about... that $4.5 per AAV fills the narrative ..KBO is not JPN so riskier but his metrics look legit..
***Oh and CBT # is $233 mil for 2023... BUT it increases to $237 mil for 2024
#1135 · November 17, 2022, 9:52 am
IF SD was to sign Yoshida, do we see him as the lead off hitter? I tried to do some looking, and he does not seem to have much in the speed game, and fangraphs listed him as 45 speed, so that really seems like a plodder to me. So I'm thinking even with his great hit/OBP tool, might not be the best option for lead off.
Or do we just live with the lack of wheels because of his hit skills, and hope he is scoring due to extra base hits from the likes of Tatis, Soto, Machado in some order behind him. And if we sign him, do we push all in, and still go get Diaz?
Yoshida, Tatis, Machado, Soto, Diaz, Crone is a really nice start to a line up.
#1136 · November 17, 2022, 9:53 am
Quote from Henry Silvestre on November 17, 2022, 9:38 am50. Drew Rucinski, RHP. Two years, $9MM.
How are we feeling about Rucinski as a potential 6th SP or even 5th if we were to miss out on some of the arms (Senga/Taillon/Stripling/Walker) we've been talking about... that $4.5 per AAV fills the narrative ..KBO is not JPN so riskier but his metrics look legit..
***Oh and CBT # is $233 mil for 2023... BUT it increases to $237 mil for 2024
You would think for that money, Davies is the much better option. ML success, and a very good year in SD.
#1137 · November 17, 2022, 10:27 am
Quote from BoosterSD on November 17, 2022, 9:52 amIF SD was to sign Yoshida, do we see him as the lead off hitter? I tried to do some looking, and he does not seem to have much in the speed game, and fangraphs listed him as 45 speed, so that really seems like a plodder to me. So I'm thinking even with his great hit/OBP tool, might not be the best option for lead off.
Or do we just live with the lack of wheels because of his hit skills, and hope he is scoring due to extra base hits from the likes of Tatis, Soto, Machado in some order behind him. And if we sign him, do we push all in, and still go get Diaz?
Yoshida, Tatis, Machado, Soto, Diaz, Crone is a really nice start to a line up.
I'd go Tatis/Yoshida/Manny/Soto..
#1138 · November 17, 2022, 10:42 am
Quote from Henry Silvestre on November 17, 2022, 10:27 amYoshida, Tatis, Machado, Soto, Diaz, Crone is a really nice start to a line up.
I'd go Tatis/Yoshida/Manny/Soto..
Thats probably a good call.
Tatis/Yoshida/Manny/Soto/Diaz/Crone/Kim/Grisham/Nola
Darvish, Musgrove, Snell, Senga, Martinez/Davies
Sounds like a pennant winner to me!
#1139 · November 17, 2022, 10:44 am
Quote from Henry Silvestre on November 17, 2022, 10:27 amQuote from BoosterSD on November 17, 2022, 9:52 amIF SD was to sign Yoshida, do we see him as the lead off hitter? I tried to do some looking, and he does not seem to have much in the speed game, and fangraphs listed him as 45 speed, so that really seems like a plodder to me. So I'm thinking even with his great hit/OBP tool, might not be the best option for lead off.
Or do we just live with the lack of wheels because of his hit skills, and hope he is scoring due to extra base hits from the likes of Tatis, Soto, Machado in some order behind him. And if we sign him, do we push all in, and still go get Diaz?
Yoshida, Tatis, Machado, Soto, Diaz, Crone is a really nice start to a line up.
I'd go Tatis/Yoshida/Manny/Soto..
Think the Padres would have to see him play in ST before making the call but if his OBP holds up at the ML level I would pass on the speed just to have him on base for the great hitters follow.
The Tatis for the speed and base-running disruption followed by Yoshida - Machado - Soto could be compelling. Actually having Yoshida behind Tatis as he transitions to the ML should get him better pitches along with Machado/Soto behind. Could be the way to get max production out of the new guy.
Might even consider Tatis - Yoshida - Soto - Machado - Cronenworth since LHP is not a problem for Soto, so two LHH in a row should not be a problem and hopefully Yoshida and Soto are the two best OBP giving Machado a lot of chance with men on base. Add that without the shift ... LHH Yoshida and Soto ... if Tatis is on base ... could have a field day hitting in a wide open right side of the INF.
We would just need Yoshida to be as advertised and the offense (no matter the sequence) would be elite.
#1140 · November 17, 2022, 10:48 am
Quote from Henry Silvestre on November 17, 2022, 7:06 amQuote from fenn68 on November 17, 2022, 6:14 amHow about signing:
Koudai Senga ($75MM/5) for that SP role
Masataka Yoshida ($75MM/5) for LHH as DH/LF
That is plus $30MM AAV (pushing the upper limits I would guess of payroll space) BUT adding Senga and Yoshida to Darvish (and to some degree Suarez and Martinez) would explode the Padres popularity in Japan … and result in a huge revenue increase for the Padres from Japan AND probably would help future signings of prospect from Japan.
Maybe some overpay to sign from a pure baseball perspective but maybe a smart business decision?
Sign Otani after 2023 and own Japan … media an fans? (Can skip Soto for the money).
If they do this and add Othani next FA cycle they can run a $350mil payroll for the next 5+ yrs and still be very profitable..the JPN sponsorships + media $$ + merchandising streams would become Oceans .. and SDP could profit close to $500mil per yr if not more.. covering all payroll overage and then some..
BTW- Martinez /Suarez and Senga are great friends... and Yu is his mentor and offseason workout partner .. SENGA + Abreu would be great.. SENGA + Yoshida would be next level advantage AJP..
You can't be serious with those numbers. I'm sure there's some creative accounting involved, but the one team that actually posts their financials publicly reported revenue of about 600m. That's the Braves coming off of a World Series. You can't honestly believe that Japan alone would generate nearly a billion dollars. An initial star level player like Darvish generates a modest bump. I suspect there would be diminishing returns on each additional add. The total amount would be a small fraction of what you're suggesting regardless.