Quote from Henry Silvestre on October 3, 2022, 10:24 am

Quote from fenn68 on October 3, 2022, 9:50 am

Quote from Henry Silvestre on October 3, 2022, 8:28 am

For the WC who is left out?

 

Assuming we need Clev to start game 1 in rd 2 if WC goes 3... Clevinger and Manaea would not be on my playoff WC roster.. I would add Cristmat for rd 1..

 

Position player wise..I need to see Dixon in the next 3 games.. but it may come down to Dixon vs Campy..No way no how I would leave Alfaro off.. even when he doesn't deliver a Walk Off (aka yesterday) he gives us a good AB and hit the ball hard. ROSARIO (can he be brought up or Groome or Knher without affecting our postseason roster moves aka player optioned needs to sit out 10 days) but if not..like to get Kim off his feet for today and tomorrow dude has been "overplayed" because of obvious reasons and he goes 100mph every game so rest the Ferrari for 2..before playing him maybe 6 innings (3 ABs) on Wed if possible

I can see Manaea off the WC roster ... but I see a role for Clevinger ... Darvish in game 1, Snell in game 2 (but will only go 5 innings) then have Clevinger poised for a long relief role ... Musgrove in game 3 (if needed).

If they want Crismatt back up ... and they have already dropped Manaea ... probably between Stammen, Johnson, Morejon, and Wilson ... whomever is the weak link in the next three games.

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On the position player side .... Dixon will be to one out and don't see anyone not on the active roster poised to be added.

However, in the next three games should see Drury / Dixon getting 3B/2B time and probably Cronenworth over to SS to rest Kim, Machado, and Cronenworth. Maybe even a run at Nola at 2B with Campy and Alfaro getting time behind the plate. Might see a lot more of Myers at 1B (to accomodate Drury to 2B/3B and LF to give Profar a break.

May not be a factor ... but although the Padres are in the playoffs they have not locked the 2nd WC ... PHIL still can unseat them I believe. The way it is setting up ... could shift the WC opponent from NYM to STL and the 5 game 2nd round from LAD to ATL. If they are not too hung over, they might want to push to win tonight then start the rest sequence on Tuesday.

That and Musgrove should be the last SP (not named Sean) to start tonight..lets give him a W

Quote from MrPadre19 on October 3, 2022, 12:28 pm

I would much rather face Stl/Atl than NYM/LAD.

Stl is obviously good but their pitching doesn't worry me.

In a 2 out of 3 scenario I'd rather face Wainright/Mikolas/Flaherty than DeGrom/Schrzer/Bassitt or even Fried/Wright/Strider.

Then again....doesn't it seem like we fare better against teams' Aces rather than their #4/#5's?

 

Quote from Henry Silvestre on October 3, 2022, 1:16 pm

Quote from MrPadre19 on October 3, 2022, 12:28 pm

I would much rather fact Stl/Atl than NYM/LAD.

Stl is obviously good but their pitching doesn't worry me.

In a 2 out of 3 scenario I'd rather face Wainright/Mikolas/Flaherty than DeGrom/Schrzer/Bassitt or even Fried/Wright/Strider.

Then again....doesn't it seem like we fare better against teams' Aces rather than their #4/#5's?

 

Yes .. we beat the Aces all the time..Cease..Gallen.. Webb.. Rodon.. Wainright. Even Urias (LAD) we beat up like a wet doll..(couldn't capitalize vs Urias but we BB and hit him pretty good)..Max we beat in NY.. Strader (oblique) and Degroom (blister) might not be healthy enough or at their elite best.. I rather see the Mets get to 100 Ws and then go 2 Ws vs them rd 1.. 3 in a row W's vs LAD 112 W's? Bring on the Braves 100+ W's and Bring on whomever NYY or Stros to make History with 4 consecutive series wins vs 100 W's teams..making us the best post season team ever.. *one that would live in fame forever as we could only be tied.. #13 Postseason Wins to the Ship

Quote from fenn68 on October 4, 2022, 12:34 pm

Saw that Melvin said he was considering going 14 position players / 12 pitchers in the WC series. Now Melvin does like to PH/PR and maybe is not locked into a CF option but not seeing it when usually mix and matching RP in every game is the rule in the playoffs … plus need to go with who his effective at the moment.

Then add, don’t think Dixon is eligible since was not on the 40 man on Sep 1. So if Dixon is out as the 14th is Rosario in? Doubt it is Batten or Sullivan ,,, no one else on the 40 man as a position player.

Maybe Melvin did not realize Dixon’s situation.

 

Quote from Jeremy Hill on October 4, 2022, 2:18 pm

A couple of the beat reporters have pointed out that they could actually add Dixon as an injury replacement for somebody who has already missed the minimum amount of time for their designation. Apparently they could add Dixon as a replacement for someone like Austin Adams.

Quote from fenn68 on October 4, 2022, 2:30 pm

Quote from Jeremy Hill on October 4, 2022, 2:18 pm

A couple of the beat reporters have pointed out that they could actually add Dixon as an injury replacement for somebody who has already missed the minimum amount of time for their designation. Apparently they could add Dixon as a replacement for someone like Austin Adams.

Seems like a big loophole … especially for a guy that was on the IL for virtually the entire season. I guess I could see it if the player was on the 40 man on Sept 1 then onto the IL but they really did have a full (non-60 day IL) roster on Sept 1.

Quote from Henry Silvestre on October 5, 2022, 9:57 am

I think all 14 position guys are in

 

12 pitchers

 

SP 1. YU 2. SNELL 3. MUSGROVE

 

BP 4.CL HADER. 5. GARCIA.6. SUAREZ.7.MARTINEZ. 8. MOREJON 9. HILL. 10. MANEA (may not be available to pitch until Sunday) 11. Wilson 12. Stanmen

 

Round 2 ?once we get past NYM ..think 5 game series maybe 13-13 roster.. could be + Clevinger + Cristmat (minus Stanmen? Or other)

 

Round 3.. same as 2 one can argue 7 game series 14 P vs 12 position ..Dixon/Campy or Alfaro likely off..

 

Have Rosario/Batten/Castillo/Groome etc etc (40 mam roster) all available in case of injury (injury = player out for the remainder of postseason per rules

Quote from Randy Manese on October 5, 2022, 10:04 am

The Padres would be preparing to clean out their lockers and go home for the winter if not for the 3 pitchers who are scheduled to start in New York.  Looking back at the end of the 2020 trades for Darvish and Snell and the mid-January 2021 trade for Musgrove at this point in time it is rather easy to say we made out on those 3 deals, especially if Snell continue to pitch as he has lately.

Taking a look back, for Darvish (and Caratini) gave up:  OF's Owen Caissie and Ismael Mena, ss's Reggie Preciado and Yeison Santana, and SP Zach Davies.  Davies no longer with the Cubs and Caissie is the best of the prospects given up but likely will not reach the major until 2025 at the earliest.  Preciado hit .199 in low A, Santana .248 in high A but showed little punch, and Mean was back for a second year in Rookie ball and hit .264 with only 8 extra base hits.  We were also able to get Korry Howell and Brett Sullivan for Caratini and both helped solidify our AA and AAA teams, respectively.  Caissie could become an everyday player in the majors but he currently is the 4th or 5th ranked OF in the Cubs system and somewhere in their top 10 (from 5-10) depending on what your sources are.

For Snell, gave up:  SP's Luis Patino and Cole Wilcox and c's Francisco Mejia and Blake Hunt.  Patino still has great promise but was fighting off injury and control issues the past 2 years.  Similarly Wilcox, who is projected to reach the major in 2025 and ranks within their top 10 prospects, can be another top of the rotation starter after TJ surgery but both of these two pitchers are still unproven.  Mejia will likely always be a back-up catcher and Hunt likely won't be protected again from Rule 5 draft this year after his 2nd year in AA.  Won't really know until Patino and Wilcox become everyday pitchers, but having Snell for another year after this is key for the Padres in 2023 and leans heavily on a Padres win on this trade, at least for the time being.

For Musgrove, gave up:  SP Omar Cruz and Drake Fellows, OF Hudson Head and RP David Bednar to Pittsburgh and SP Joey Lucchesi to the Mets.  Fellow and Lucchesi were out with injuries all of 2022.  Cruz was primarily a RP at Hi A with a 5.03 ERA while Bednar became an NL all star RP.  Head struggled at the Hi A level, showing some power but having a lot of trouble making contact with a K rate of over 33%.  Interestingly enough the best prospect the Pirates got in this deal seems to be C Endy Rodriguez from the Mets.  Despite what Bednar did, take Musgrove any day of the week.

Lots of prospects given up but we have prospects now in the system that are just as good or better.  For that reason, got to hand it to Preller to give us a chance no matter whether we think he gave up too much in the process.

Quote from fenn68 on October 5, 2022, 11:51 am

If the Padres believe that getting some more offense (maybe at the expense of some defense) vs. the NYM starters, wonder how Melvin approach CF and C ... maybe even DH.

In CF Melvin (and a lot of others) are going out of their way to defend Grisham as the starting CF but looking at the last 30 days:

Grisham (43 AB) 116/136/209 ... OPS 345 ... 23K (over 50%) and 0 BB. I don't see how his defense overcomes that and in a 3 game series not a lot of time for him to turn-around. However,

Azocar (53 AB) is not much better with an OPS 575 but no power and lesser defense. So, the other option is

Myers (61 AB) has the best OPS on the team in the last 30 days at .947. That is a BIG difference in offense that should justify his defense.

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Another use for Myers is playing ahead of Bell ... 1B/DH.

Bell only has a .598 OPS built on BB(.333 OPS) and little SLG(.265). Note Drury is doing fine with a .834 OPS.

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Catcher will clearly be Nola based on his handling of Darvish/Snell and a decent .767 OPS, but the back-up may shift over

Campusano (23 AB) with a .870 OPS and be linked with Musgrove

Alfaro (17 AB) with a poor .498 OPS ... yes, missed time with the knee but has barely played since his return and really has had a poor post All-Star break ... mega K ratio.

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Though call for Melvin.