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2021 Starting Pitching Rotation

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Please throw MORE change-ups!  Niebla obviously is working with this pitching staff to give them the best chance to be successful.  For example, Pierce Johnson is throwing more fastballs which hopefully will make him less predictable for those batters waiting on the curve.  It will be interesting to see how Suarez and Martinez progress over the season as imports from the Japanese league.

Fangraphs is projecting Snell on 4/27 ...

https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/depth-charts/padres

OPPONENT PROJ STARTER OPP PROJ STARTER
Thu 4/21
Off
Fri 4/22
LAD
Nick Martinez Julio Urías
Sat 4/23
LAD
Yu Darvish Tyler Anderson
Sun 4/24
LAD
Sean Manaea Clayton Kershaw
Mon 4/25
Off
Tue 4/26
@ CIN
Joe Musgrove Reiver Sanmartin
Wed 4/27
@ CIN
Blake Snell Vladimir Gutierrez
Thu 4/28
@ CIN
Nick Martinez Hunter Greene
Fri 4/29
@ PIT
Yu Darvish Zach Thompson
Sat 4/30
@ PIT
Sean Manaea JT Brubaker

I just don't see Snell starting on 4/27 against Cincinnati.  Depending upon what Martinez does today against the Dodgers, i.e., how many innings he pitches, I can see Clevinger on either 27 or 28 April.  Snell hasn't even had a rehab start so I think he will be held out until after the 1 May roster reduction.

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LynchMob

Here's what FanGraphs/RosterResource is projecting as of today ...

OPPONENT PROJ STARTER OPP PROJ STARTER
Mon 4/25
Off
Tue 4/26
@ CIN
Joe Musgrove Reiver Sanmartin
Wed 4/27
@ CIN
MacKenzie Gore Vladimir Gutierrez
Thu 4/28
@ CIN
Nick Martinez Tyler Mahle
Fri 4/29
@ PIT
Yu Darvish Zach Thompson
Sat 4/30
@ PIT
Sean Manaea JT Brubaker
Sun 5/1
@ PIT
Joe Musgrove Mitch Keller
Mon 5/2
Off
Tue 5/3
@ CLE
Mike Clevinger Zach Plesac
Wed 5/4
@ CLE
Blake Snell Cal Quantrill

7 different starters? I like it!

Here's the latest projection from FG ...

Tue 5/3
@ CLE
Mike Clevinger Zach Plesac
Wed 5/4
@ CLE
MacKenzie Gore Cal Quantrill
Thu 5/5
MIA
Nick Martinez Jesús Luzardo
Fri 5/6
MIA
Yu Darvish Sandy Alcantara
Sat 5/7
MIA
Sean Manaea Pablo López
Sun 5/8
MIA
Joe Musgrove Trevor Rogers
Mon 5/9
CHC
Mike Clevinger Wade Miley
Tue 5/10
CHC
Blake Snell Kyle Hendricks
Wed 5/11
CHC
MacKenzie Gore Justin Steele

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nightengales-notebook-arizona-diamondbacks-baseballs-120529611.html

The Padres have tried to sign starter Joe Musgrove to an extension before the start of the season, but now that he’s been lights out this year (3-0 with a 2.16 ERA, 25 strikeouts in 25 innings through Saturday), he might as well wait, with a huge payday around the corner on the free-agent market.

Musgrove, 29, will be one of the most prized free agent starters along with Jacob deGrom, Nathan Eovaldi, Noah Syndergard, and Chris Bassitt.

Quote from LynchMob on May 2, 2022, 3:49 pm

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nightengales-notebook-arizona-diamondbacks-baseballs-120529611.html

The Padres have tried to sign starter Joe Musgrove to an extension before the start of the season, but now that he’s been lights out this year (3-0 with a 2.16 ERA, 25 strikeouts in 25 innings through Saturday), he might as well wait, with a huge payday around the corner on the free-agent market.

Musgrove, 29, will be one of the most prized free agent starters along with Jacob deGrom, Nathan Eovaldi, Noah Syndergard, and Chris Bassitt.

Most of the local reports suggest he is willing to discuss an extension during the season and the Padres are willing to also. Unfortunately one report had the offer by the Padres ... in my judgement .... grossly under valued. However, it is a long season before the FA kicks in.

At 29 and pitching at upper rotation quality with the reputation of being a workhorse that posts up every game ... he will get a nice payday (from someone). Not yet "elite" as a DeGrom but up there and should get a multi-year deal in the $20-24MM AAV range. Basically and $11-15MM dollar increase over his 2022 contract.

Should be the Padres #1 priority signing considering that Manaea and Clevinger are also FA and, potentially, Martinez does not exercise his "player option" for about $6.5MM. Plus consider Darvish and Snell are FA after 2023 sending the SP into a potentially very dark space.

Not sure how long they will do it ... but the six man rotation looks to be the plan when Clevinger returns then not sure what happens when Snell arrives ... maybe Martinez to the pen ... maybe Gore to AAA ... maybe both with a return to a five man rotation.

I think the Berrios deal would be a good comparison for what a Musgrove deal might look like. He got 7/131, but he's only getting 10 this year in what would have been his last arbitration year. Something in the neighborhood of 20m a year seems fair. Maybe he gives us a discount and something in the high teens gets it done. If the report is accurate our last offer was very low.

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