Quote from Jeremy Hill on May 3, 2022, 2:53 pm

Both the length and value of the reported offer seemed strange to me. It just seems like a waste of time to even make an offer like that. If you kept the total money the same and knocked 3 years off it might still look like a slight hometown discount.

 

Quote from fenn68 on May 3, 2022, 6:08 pm

Maybe the “reported” offer was just flat out wrong (or incomplete). Agree that the reported offer is hard to comprehend when Musgrove is currently near $9MM in his last  controlled year.

Beyond the paltry $11MM AAV … the eight years seems way too long for an initial offer (maybe they go that far later but not as an opening offer).

Now not sure about the league position on “creative contracts” to avoid AAV issues BUT I guess they could structure an 8 year deal at the first 4 years at $72MM and the final 4 years with an opt out at only $16MM (player will clearly opt out). Musgrove gets $18MM per year for the first four … Padres get the $11MM AAV for those years … after 4 the opt out clears the books and/or a contract revision is done. Just throwing those numbers out there but (with different numbers) is that not how Hosmer’s contact works … dropping from $20MM to $13MM after 5 years?

With Musgrove, Manaea, Clevinger, and Rogers all FA expect to see some creativity to keep some of them and keep under the luxury tax penalties going forward. Plus right now there is an added complication of not knowing whether Martinez, Suarez, Hosmer, or Profar opt out … so not really sure of the starting level they will be working from and not really sure of the highest priority needs especially if Myers, Hosmer, and Profar depart.

I guess opening discussion but not consummating a deal may set the table for faster decisions when the landscape is clear.

Quote from 3fingersplit on May 3, 2022, 7:19 pm

First off....none of us are privy to any actual offer so anything "reported" is PFA (Pulled From Air) as far as I'm concerned.....none of us were in the room. This is the same "reported" garbage about Hosmer being traded last year and Gallo coming to SD or the supposed deal with the Mets.....it's just click bait and all it did was create chaos.

Contract negotiations are only viable to fruition absent the press or leaks....if I'm a player and contract offers were leaked to the press by my agent....fired...by management.....now it's my way or the highway....AJ should put an absolute lid on all of it as should Joe....it isn't anybodys business until the deal is done and signed.

Quote from fenn68 on May 5, 2022, 7:21 am

Seems as though Snell will get one more rehab start so should be set up for a return around the 15th.

Padres are now going with a 6 man rotation (good for keeping the key starters fresher for the second half) ... Musgrove, Darvish, Manaea are all doing well ... Clevenger and Gore have looked good and deserve to remain in the rotation, so that is 5. Martinez may be the odd man out as the least effective so far. When Snell returns and if they want to remain in a 6 man rotation should see Snell take the 6th SP slot and Martinez may get bumped to long relief.

Don't know how long they stay with a 6 man but when they return to a 5 man not sure who is bumped ... more likely an injury will be the trigger.

Odd chance that mid-season Preller executives a 3 team trade sending a SP (Manaea or Musgrove or Clevinger ... all FA after the season) to a contender who in turn sends prospect to a non-contender who in turn sends a player to the Padres to fill a need (maybe an OF bat).

Quote from Jeremy Hill on May 5, 2022, 8:42 am

Like it or not baseball exists in the rumor sphere. We may not know exactly what the offer was, but the bigger takeaway is that the 2 sides are pretty far apart. Musgrove himself essentially confirmed that on the radio. Lin and Rosenthal are generally pretty reliable. I don't think they're just making it up. In the social media age we probably do hear about more than we actually need to though. Realistically Musgrove could probably ask for something in the Berrios, Gausman, Ray vicinity. If he keeps doing what he's been doing it could get beyond that. I don't think there's much to be gained by low balling him.

Quote from fenn68 on May 5, 2022, 9:50 am

I guess I look at it as the Padres may want to eventually extend Musgrove ... but maybe don't really want serious negotiations right now and come to a deal before it is clearer on all the rest of the open issues that will exist at the end of the season.

As I said before Musgrove is only one piece while additional FA are Manaea, Clevinger, Myers, Rogers, Johnson, Stammen and then potential opt outs with Hosmer, Martinez, Suarez, and Profar. That is a lot of potential "holes" opening up for 2023 that need to be filled while staying under the luxury tax threshold.

Except for Tatis ... the Padres have not been an organization to make moves before they have to make the move. Basically buying time for the unknowns to play out. Maybe they pay an extra dollar or two for the waiting on a player but maybe cover that by not extending early on a player that suddenly flops or gets injured.

Guessing it will get done with Musgrove at some point.

 

Quote from LynchMob on May 7, 2022, 8:16 am

No Snell on the horizon at FG ...

OPPONENT	PROJ STARTER	OPP PROJ STARTER
Sat 5/7 MIA	Sean Manaea	Pablo López
Sun 5/8 MIA	Joe Musgrove	Trevor Rogers
Mon 5/9 CHC	Mike Clevinger	Kyle Hendricks
Tue 5/10 CHC	MacKenzie Gore	Justin Steele
Wed 5/11 CHC	Nick Martinez	Keegan Thompson
Thu 5/12 Off
Fri 5/13 @ ATL	Yu Darvish	Jesse Chavez
Sat 5/14 @ ATL	Sean Manaea	Max Fried
Sun 5/15 @ ATL	Joe Musgrove	Charlie Morton
Mon 5/16 Off

And ... Dennis Lin @ The Athletic sez ...

https://theathletic.com/3298670/2022/05/07/padres-are-content-to-field-a-starting-pitching-surplus-for-now-somethings-got-to-give/

Early next week, Blake Snell will make what could be his final rehab start. His season debut might come before the end of the next road trip.

Quote from LynchMob on May 9, 2022, 11:48 am

Per FG ...

OPPONENT	PROJ STARTER	OPP PROJ STARTER
Mon 5/9 CHC	MacKenzie Gore	Kyle Hendricks
Tue 5/10 CHC	Mike Clevinger	Mark Leiter Jr.
Wed 5/11 CHC	Nick Martinez	Keegan Thompson
Thu 5/12 Off
Fri 5/13 @ ATL	Yu Darvish	Max Fried
Sat 5/14 @ ATL	Sean Manaea	Charlie Morton
Sun 5/15 @ ATL	Joe Musgrove	Kyle Wright
Mon 5/16 Off
Tue 5/17 @ PHI	Blake Snell	Zack Wheeler
Wed 5/18 @ PHI	MacKenzie Gore	Kyle Gibson

Quote from LynchMob on May 19, 2022, 6:52 am

FG sez ...

OPPONENT	PROJ STARTER	OPP PROJ STARTER
Thu 5/19 @ PHI	Yu Darvish	Kyle Gibson
Fri 5/20 @ SFG	Sean Manaea	Jakob Junis
Sat 5/21 @ SFG	Joe Musgrove	Carlos Rodón
Sun 5/22 @ SFG	Mike Clevinger	Alex Wood
Mon 5/23 MIL	Blake Snell	Adrian Houser
Tue 5/24 MIL	Yu Darvish	Corbin Burnes
Wed 5/25 MIL	Sean Manaea	Eric Lauer
Thu 5/26 Off
Fri 5/27 PIT	Joe Musgrove	José Quintana
Sat 5/28 PIT	Mike Clevinger	Bryse Wilson