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2021 Starting Pitching Rotation

Here's what FanGraphs is projecting for the Padres Starting Pitching innings pitched %s to be for 2021 ... (which assumes ~5 1/3 IPs per start) ...

https://www.fangraphs.com/teams/padres/depth-chart

Darvish      21%  184 IP 31 starts

Musgrove  19%  164 IP 30 starts

Snell          17%  146 IP 29 starts

Lamet        14%  123 IP  23 starts

Paddack    14%  122 IP 23 starts

Gore            9%   75 IP  14 starts

Morejon     4%   39 IP  7 starts

Weathers    1%   13 IP  3 starts

Lawson       1%     9 IP  2 starts

I like this perspective ... and I guess I mostly agree with it ...

Maybe I'm hoping for Darvish to get 22% (ie. a few more IP/start) ... will be happy with Musgrove and Snell getting 19/17 ... don't expect Lamet (due to health) nor Paddack (due to performance) to get 14 ... hoping Gore is not needed for 9 (but maybe he is?) ... and so thinking Morejon will provide more than 4 ... and so others will have to pick up some starts/IPs ... maybe Weathers (though again I'd hope that's not needed, but a start or 2 wouldn't be any problem at all) ... maybe Lawson (that'd be awesome, actually) ... who else?  Seems like if I'm right, the someone else will get a spot start or 2 (like Avila/Bolonas in previous seasons) ... maybe Mason Thompson ... mayb Baez ... maybe Avila ... is Nix at all a possibility?

 

Injuries will change this projection ... of course but a couple of observations:

  1. Might see Darvish with a few less starts ... part to save some of his arm for the playoffs and part just a natural outcome from using a 6th (or spot) starter during the season pushing everyone back.
  2. Thinking more starts from Morejon since he appears to be the 5th starter in most of April and then likely  switch to long relief and become then #1 for spot starter or minor injury in the starting 5. Padres liked him last season and he has been better in ST ... so probably he would have to take a big step back to only get 7 starts.
  3. Flip side is 14 starts for Gore (about a half a season) ... non-roster ... so that would suggest some major issues in the starting 5 and Morejon ... basically two SP out for half the season. Plus, depending on how they are doing in the minors ... might call up Weathers (on the roster) before Gore if it is only for a short run. Gore is still potential over production (so is Weathers).
  4. If there is the "odd" spot start that is not covered by Morejon ... and they are carrying a 9 man pen ... bullpen day rather and an IL or a player optioned (that has a lot of limits)?
  5. If the is an one off call-up ... Baez (if doing well) ... on the roster and being worked as a starter / long relief. Think Thompson / Espinosa will be short relief and Lawson needs to make a major rebound from injury ... so a long-shot as would be Humphreys.
  6. Going with a non-roster might be an option is also a long shot baring some more 60 day IL unless they fall below the 40 man roster to start the season but who? Crismatt - Bachar - Diaz - Avila - Kennedy ... well a lot in the "grey zone" ... no idea who will appear good enough in 2021.
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LynchMob

Dinelson Lamet (P) SD - Apr. 12

https://www.rotowire.com/baseball/player.php?id=770316

Lamet (elbow) won't return until he pitches at least once more at the Padres' alternate training site, Kevin Acee of The San Diego Union-Tribune reports.

ROTOWIRE RECOMMENDS: Lamet built up to 56 pitches during a game at the alternate training site Friday, but the team isn't rushing him back to the mound. Since the right-hander likely won't be ready to make his season debut at home against the Dodgers on Friday, the Padres will need someone else to fill in after Adrian Morejon (forearm) was placed on the 10-day injured list Monday. Craig Stammen, Nabil Crismatt or Ryan Weathers could be options to start Friday's matchup if Lamet is unavailable.

I think in this case the “starter” is somewhat misleading. None of the roster options have been stretch out to go more than 3 innings so the sequence of the pitchers may be just strategic as it relates to the LAD line-up. If all three go maybe a RHP-LHP-RHP pattern throws the hitters off ... at least a bit .. and hope that gets them through 6 innings.

Since we have no idea what is going on at the alternate site hard to suggest a call-up for a spot start (until Lamet returns) would provide a better option.

If Paddack’s start drains a lot of pen and the Friday game drains a lot of pen ... might see moves after that game for fresh pen arms ... moves that would be made anyway for the adds of Johnson / Altavilla.

Assuming no rainouts in PITT (there is potential) ... and the next sequence in Snell - Musgrove - Paddack - TBD - Darvish - Snell then we should be looking at Lamet being activated vs MILW (Monday if the want to lag Musgrove or Tuesday if they just want Lamet set up to go against the LAD.

The road trip v LAD would set up Darvish - Snell - Musgrove (or Lamet) - Lamet (or Musgrove). The following Monday is an off day ... so could skip Paddack and go with Darvish and Snell on normal rest vs AZ. Then other off day giving Musgrove and Lamet an extra day rest (or two) depending when (if) Paddack gets re-inserted into the rotation.

Sure would like to see the Stammen/Weathers/Crismatt game go on Wednesday to give Java Joe a couple more days rest to start on Friday.

Paddack on Thursday on regular rest sets up Musgrove/Darvish/Snell vs. Dodgers Fri-Sun.

Ideal IMO.

 

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LynchMobBrian Connelly

I'm OK with Tingler being "Belichickian" 🙂

https://www.mlb.com/padres/news/adrian-morejon-placed-on-injured-list

"We've got stay in the present," Tingler said. "Right now, we're preparing for a long, hard-fought battle of four games with the Pirates."

I don't want us to over react to the Dodgers series either...but in this case the only change necessary really would be to give Musgrove a couple extra days rest.It's not like the idea is to move someone "up" and start them on shorter rest.

You would think holding Joe until Friday would fit more into Tinglers' "stay in the present" even.

But....I will trust they have a handle on this and see how it goes....but if we were to have a bad outing Friday night in the first game of the series it may have an effect on the rest of the series.I don't want to have an over worked Pen going into the weekend either.

We really need Paddack to have his best start of the season and give us 7 solid.

 

 

 

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LynchMob

We are all probably over thinking this but IF the lagged Musgrove two days until Friday ... then the rotation held “normal” ... he would miss LAD series in LA the following weekend. (He would be up on Wednesday v MILW).

Of course they could lag Musgrove another day then to avoid MILW to get Musgrove on Thursday in LA ... not sure how Musgrove - Darvish - Snell - Lamet do on “extra rest” ... not a given they will be better. Then if Lamet - Paddack get two of the MILW starts ... have to insert another “bullpen day” potentially draining the pen (considering Paddack is getting a start) before the LAD series begins.

There is that echo from the past ... usually to describe sinker ball pitchers ... that extra rest hurts their effectiveness and the sinker does not sink. Can think that may apply to command issues ... more rest -> stronger -> less pinpoint command -> more walks / hits. That COULD be outcome and as likely they would be more effective.

Keep it simple ... minimize the moving parts ... let real players prep with their “normal” routine.

I think Pads have telegraphed their plan now:

  • Weathers is obviously going to start Game 1 vs LAD
  • Crismatt's "reward" for throwing his arm off & saving the pen is going to be getting optioned back down today, since he basically made a start, so unavailable for 5 days.
  • Pierce Johnson (in Pitt with team) will take his place, increasing pen quality, but decreasing future flexibility
  • TENATIVE plan is for Lamet to return for the 1st game vs. Brewers Mon 4/19.  I believe the corresponding move will be option Tim Hill down, with Weathers shifting back to pen as the Lefty (will have had 2 days off after his start).  Hill's "URA" (Unearned Run Avg) is about 9.00 with most coming from his HR's given up; unique look, but Weathers is clearly better

This will set up:  Darvish, Snell, Lamet, Musgrove for the 4 game series @ LAD. 

  • MIGHT option Paddack after his start 3rd game vs Brewers Wed 4/21 in favor of a fresh "extra" bullpen arm (Altavilla?) for LAD series.  The 2 off days sandwiching 2 games @ Dbacks (would be Darvish & Snell on normal rest) means Paddack wouldn't start as 5th SP in > 10 days.  Pads could "re-set" rotation then, but likely to stick/shift to 5-man.  If Paddack doesn't progress next 2 starts, possible it goes to Weathers.  But if Chris does improve, may see Hill back up for Weathers to Minors to start stretching out in controlled fashion as SP?