Quote from fenn68 on August 12, 2020, 5:04 pm

What would you trade for Mike Minor. LHSP, 32, FA after the season, good 2018 (28 starts, 157 innings, 4.18 ERA) and a better 2019 (32 starts, 208 innings, 3.57 ERA) in a hitter’s ballpark in Texas. This year 2 good and 2 not so good starts.

Would be a solid veteran in the #5 slot for the playoff run with the plus of being a LHP in a RHP rotation. If they pulled a deal now he would get 7-8 starts.

I bring him up because over the past few days his name has been popping up ... not sure if Texas (who has a losing record but in 2nd place in the AL West) is dangling him out there or others are calling on him. Frankly Texas does have a weak, weak roster with not a lot of upside in 2020 ... so dealing Minor for a decent return makes sense.

If the price is right ... I would do a deal and not gamble on the potential internally for a 2020 playoff run. Ah, the price and pretty sure there would be other teams in the hunt. However, remember he is just a short rental so that chips a bit on the asking price.

Maybe Naylor? (We now do have Alonso as insurance) ...Padres travel to Texas next Monday and both come to PETCO on Wednesday.

Just a question.

Quote from JasonE135 on August 12, 2020, 10:57 pm

Unfortunately it seems that Texas still believes he has tremendous value. I hear the asking price is quite high.

Quote from fenn68 on August 13, 2020, 8:01 am

Makes sense to be from Texas’ point of view. Guessing they hold out for an unreasonable return to the last moment.

Making it more challenging for them is that even with a losing record (and clearly a bad roster) they are in 2nd place in the AL West ... a playoff slot ... plus with some of the other really poor teams they still have a shot for one of the two wild card slots.

I too would wait it out ... making the playoffs even with a bad team .. is a nice positive for their fans which may turn into a better 2021 attendance. A positive for their players who are part of the future getting playoff experience. Not as though a buyer is going to offer game changing prospects for 7-8 starts while picking up about $2MM of prorated contract.

Still going to be a tough call for Texas ... looking at their roster ... a lot of FA after the season ... a lot of “old marginal” players on club options ... and probably a need to save some now and next year given the cost of a new ballpark and the 2020 COVID losses.

Predict they deal at the very last minute and for a lot less than the current asking price.

Quote from Brian Connelly on August 13, 2020, 9:42 am

The problem with the Mike Minor idea is neither Texas OR Padres are going to deal for him now, which would = 8 starts at most.

If it's closer to the deadline, you're down to maybe 5 starts left for a guy who is NOT going to be in our playoff rotation.  Granted each one "counts" for more, but still....  I wouldn't consider any ranked prospect for that.  Nor Naylor.  In all seriousness, Perdomo?

Pads are in pretty good shape from a "need" standpoint:  A week or so ago they were:

• 2B.  Now may be "all set", with JC as AT LEAST the strong side of a platoon.  Mateo likely to get a look vs LHP.
• C.   People will howl about no offense; but the #'s will slide up somewhere closer to normal for both.  At some point if they don't, with a 28-man roster, have to think about looking at Torrens.  Hedges is what he is, but there are 2 things Pads could do that might help Mejia get going:  1)  Keep splitting starts 50-50, but do it on back to back days .  2)  Try Mejia as DH.  I get Tingler loving the patience / "pro" AB he gets from Profar & Garcia; but not much upside there.  Tough to do before some sign of production though.
• 5th SP.   Really overblown.  Is Lucchesi REALLY a "bad" #5 after 1 mediocre start & a shelling in Colorado vs. Blackmon & Co?  I feel very strongly we have at least 1 option from our huge pool that is > MLB average #5 SP.  Some of the "issue" is the perceived dropoff since #4 Davies has been so great.
• DH.  This to me is the real need; where I would sacrifice a prospect for a short term rental.  With emergence of JC @ 2B/1B, a DH in our lineup might never bat > 7th, but production from that spot could increase dramatically with a big bat fitting one of 2 profiles:  1)  LH who's at least LF capable.  Naylor fits that description, but looking for the 6-8-10 year vet who's seen it all, or  2) RH who's at least 1B capable.  France, but same thing.  But even if almost all time was "just" cementing DH spot for the stretch run, I feel this would improve this Padres team's chances the most.

Quote from fenn68 on August 13, 2020, 10:11 am

Hard to wrap my thinking around the trade deadline (players really available and legit analysis of need). Partly due the fact we are only 20 days into the season with about 18 days to go prior to the trade deadline. If we got here in 20 days ... think how much can change in the next 18 days (for the good or for the bad) for the team and for individual players. Almost all the teams have the same debate going on internally.

Makes for a “wait until the last moment” to make sure teams have the best evaluations of the players ... their needs (which may change in 18 days with an injury).

Can’t be a smart buyer if there are no sellers of players the buyer wants unless it is at an unjustifiable price. Not all that convinced the truly bad teams have all that much in talent to pursue (at a logical price).

Padres are near the top in offense with Pham, Profar, Hedges, and Mejia all performing below their histories ... so should we expect regression to their norms and better offense? On the other hand, Grisham and Cronenworth have as newbies exceeded expectations and so has Hosmer ... the reverse coming? 20 days not that long for decision to push a trade.

I am having a challenge to identify clearly potential needs with players available (sellers do have to want to sell) and the limits of what I would give for that upgrade (or even if it is a real upgrade).

 

Quote from fenn68 on August 13, 2020, 10:33 am

The #5 SP is an interesting debate .... when it is just for maybe 6 starts.

What should the Padres expect for wins with whomever internally takes that role Quantrill, Lucchesi, “bullpen days”, Morejon, Baez? Gut call on anywhere from 0 to 6 but given “history” of those options more a “wish and a prayer”.

Think the wild card slot for the Padres looks to be well in hand but the key is getting 1st or 2nd in the NL West for better seeding and they way COLO and LAD are playing a one or two game difference in wins could be the difference maker ... so I would not dismiss a quality upgrade as not worth the move.

However, as usual, it is the assessment of the quality of the upgrade and the cost. A quality upgrade that costs a Bednar or Reyes for a rental ... worth it. If it takes Weathers or Cantillo ... NOT worth it.

Clearly there will be little consensus on what would be an “overpay” if the Padres have to give up a prospect(s).

Preller has a couple of weeks to feel out the other teams ... re-evaluate his and other teams’ players ... and then surprise us all by dealing for a RP.

Quote from MrPadre19 on August 13, 2020, 12:38 pm

One thing the start to this season has shown us is that Grisham and Cronenworth are for real.

Whether in season...off season...or next season this now allows us to include guys like Arias,Trammell,Head etc. in deals where before we may have been more hesitant.

It hurts that with no minor league season there is nothing to show any increased value in these guys though.Another reason trades this year seem unlikely.

Both Grisham and Cronenworth are not just performing but you can just use your eyes and see that they belong.

Gives alot more flexibility IMO for AJ when talking trades for position player prospects.

Potts/Marcano/Arias/Trammell/Head...notice I didn't include Campusano or Abrams.

Those guys you just don't trade unless it's in a deal for a guy like DeGrom.

 

 

Quote from fenn68 on August 13, 2020, 1:06 pm

Agree on putting Arias, Marcano, and Potts into the "trade chip" pool ... not much of a future for them with Machado ... Tatis ... Hosmer ... Cronenworth ... and a superior INF prospect in Abrams coming fast (not trading him ... way too high a ceiling).

Would take a bit more for me to deal Trammell or Head ... even with Hassell in the longer term future ... since the Padres' OF will be losing Pham (2022) and Myers (2023) and not locking in on Olivares / Naylor / Mateo. Not much OF help coming soon internally. Don't really want to be in the position of having to find a couple of OF in a few years ... trading other prospects or paying a FA premium.

Yeh, not trading Campusano ... getting a catcher who can hit and play defense is worth a ton ... and likely Hedges is gone (2022) and Mejia, if he doesn't hit, will be out sooner than later.

The trade chips that may be most sought after may be the pitchers ... I know never enough pitching but that makes the Morejon, Baez, Weathers, Cantillo valuable to others and a better return. Expect Paddack and Lamet to be around for a while ... looks like Gore and Patino have the inside tract for two more spots going forward .... might make one of the others expendable for a key return.

So much depends on the player the Padres would get ... rental or longer term ... projected starter or bench.

 

Quote from MrPadre19 on August 13, 2020, 3:00 pm

Definitely not suggesting to trade Trammell and Head necessarily.

But if in a package you are getting an outfielder back....or you trade one of them for an upgrade to the rotation etc.

Let’s face it.....we only need to upgrade a few places now...hard to believe I just said that....so we wouldn’t be trading them just to trade them.

But let’s just say a guy like DeGrom becomes available.

I’d trade Trammell in a heartbeat in a package if he was the return.
The main point was just that the performances of Crone and Grish have given us more options on the trade front.