Forum

Please or Register to create posts and topics.

2020 In Season Trade ideas

I thought all the Francisco Lindor to Pads trade talk this offseason was insane.  It probably still is.  But I wonder with everything that’s happened & the shortened season if there isn’t a path here.   Let’s say Pads are in it 30 games in, Indians are not, and both staring at big $$ challenges next year….

Pads get:  Lindor

Indians get:   Gabe Arias, 1 of: Trammell / Campusano / Morejon, Jurickson Profar, Pierce Johnson

Have to give up a top 100, but not from our top 3.  All are painful but justifiable to have a legit contender this year & next.  Arias also painful, but less so with Tatis here 5 (or more?) years.  Profar both backfills position for Indians and offsets $ this year.  30 days of Lindor less Profar = "only" + 2.2 MM.  Add +1 MM more if Profar not incl.  I included Johnson as an interesting cheap long control RP, but he also offsets a little $ this year, but more in 2021.  Could be another minimum salary RP, but does have to be someone in the 60 player pool.

Of course, the massive issue is who goes to 2B?  I’d probably say Lindor THIS season, but TRY to get Tatis over there next season.

What about Lindor’s likely 25 MM range 3rd year of Arb salary next year?   4 options best to worst:

  • Say Lindor gets 25 MM in Arb.  Offer to immediately replace it with this deal:  27.5 MM / 1 year (10% higher) structured as:   2.5 MM immediate signing bonus.  5 MM base salary.  10 MM x 2 deferred signing bonus:  2022 & 2023.   He gets more $ & still a FA after season.  Pads only commit 7.5 MM in 2021 when $ will be tightest.
  • Re-trade him. RISKY, since limited pool of teams looking for 1 yr @ 25 MM, but he is such a difference maker, would recover SOME of the value of assets traded to get him.
  • Keep him but restructure some/all “big 3” contracts. More on this later, but unlikely.
  • Keep him but let almost all FA & Arb eligible go, including Tommy Pham. Pham might be in 10-12 MM+ range in A-3, and it would “open” an OF spot Tatis could conceivably move to for 1 year in 2021 instead of 2B, but this would subtract too much from team overall in my opinion.

I don’t know why a player wouldn’t take both more $ overall AND much more $ shifted from base salary at risk (like this season) in exchange for receiving most of the $ later.  Seems like a win/win for both sides if details handled correctly.

Cost MIGHT be lower for Lindor in this weird season, but there are so few difference makers of his caliber available.   If he did re-structure 2021 $ to be team friendly, might others do the same (more on that later), and guys like Yates & Richards maybe “stuck” with 1 yr max deals anyway come back for a “go for it” season in 2021?

A big 4 of:  Lindor, Pham, Tatis, Machado with Hosmer & Myers better fitting as 5th/6th best players & in lineup leaves only:   7-9 for:   CF:  Grisham or other LH / Olivares platoon ,  DH:  Many options already there, but Pads might look for cheap vet RH bat DH; don’t need David Ortiz with this lineup,  C:  Hedges an increasing weapon defensively with now superior offense.    Still strong pen, esp if could convince Yates to return.  SP relatively young but potential to be good & deep enough is there…. Might need the “go for it” 1 yr “rental” at 2021 deadline.

Surprised no one "bit" on the Lindor idea... but that convoluted plan was before season started & playoffs went from 10 to 16 teams...

So not only is he a square peg trying to fit a round hole for Pads (position, control, & $ wise), but Indians unlikely to be sellers.  Possible lower trade cost salary move in offseason, but Indians could also re-structure his last yr similar to what I proposed.

This offseason, thinking Pads were .500+/- this full year, I was dubious the next idea might be a sucker bet.  But with Pham & Grisham transforming the OF & the lineup, I'm becoming more & more convinced this guy might be the ideal missing piece for contention not just this year, but going forward in "real" seasons 2021+...   Whit Merrifield.

He is 5 MM this year, then 2 years for < 10 MM (<7, then < 3!!).  His convoluted escaltors are included here.  2023 option is 6.7 MM against only 750K, but can increase dramatically to 10.7 MM if he is on the IL LESS than half a season total from now - 2022.

Kansas City has very low $ obligations, so no under no pressure to trade him (unlike Indians/Lindor)... only way to get him would be to make an offer they can't refuse / overpay.   So I'll throw out my Quantity & Quality proposals...

Quantity:    Morejon  + Arias + Quantrill + Garcia (or Profar).   "Overcome" no Top 100 prospect by including the Pads 2 next best / just miss.   Could the Royals turn down 2 SP's including 1 front of rotation potential & guy already defensively MLB caliber SS maybe a year away?  Garcia's lower cost, great vet presence, control next yr probably better for Royals than Profar.

Quality:  "This will hurt"...  Has to be Top 100.  No way include Gore.  Think you have to CONSIDER all the others for 2.5 to 3.5 years control of an elite BA/OBP 2B who can handle the OF.  Assuming the trade is made, I think the guy we can least afford to lose is actually Campusano; too high probability of needing a C soon.  Then I'd say Trammell to eventually help replace Pham, then Myers.  Yeah, you see where I'm going...

  • Patino + Marcano + Garcia    OR
  • Abrams + Cantillo + Garcia

Let me have it.  If you're Pads would you do any of these?  None?  I realize "on paper" we have the cheap Cronenworth (L) / Mateo potential platoon.  But could have both of those guys as perfect versatile utility guys....

 

 

 

 

I am a Whit fan and have advocated for acquiring him for two years.

BUT,give them whatever it takes that "doesn't" include Gore/Patino/Abrams/Campusano.

Mejia/Arias/Naylor/Lucchesi/prospect

Bring up Torrens and eventually Campy.

Put Q into the rotation and eventually Patino.

Give 1b to Cronenworth until Hosmer is back(shouldn't be long)

I really like Arias but to get a guy like Whit it's gotta hurt some.

Or swap out Arias for Trammell.Whit is playing CF for the Royals so they may want one in return and Grisham is looking like our CF'r for the next 5 years at least.

 

 

Likewise a Whit fan but I think we'll be able to survive the 2b position with a number of players already on the roster and/or bringing up Mateo.  In my opinion, Abrams and Marcano are closer than anyone thinks and it wouldn't surprise me if they are in the mix for the 2021 roster (actually, Marcano has to be protected this December).  I believe Campy has further to go and needs at least one more full year in the minors.

My thought is a possible trade for Boston's #1 catcher, Christian Vazquez.  Already 29 and a very late bloomer but shouldn't cost us an arm and a leg and will improve our catching situation.  Catcher market is very limited and don't expect to get a Wilson Contreras or Realmuto via free agency.  If we can hang on to Campy in that trade, will Vazquez would be a good bridge to get to him when he is ready.  Boston need prospects and not going anywhere this year or in the next few years despite large salary commitments.

 

 

It's not so much a case of "surviving" its a case of taking advantage of this expanded playoff season.

Sure we don't have to have Whitfield....but his offensive output at 2b could very well be the difference in this weird season.

Plus he's not overly expensive and we would have him for next year to bridge the gap for Abrams or whoever.

Adding a Catcher would be great too but I just can't imagine the Royals holding onto Whit again this year considering the offers they should get for him.

But who knows....maybe there won't be any significant trades this year...it's just all up in the air.

 

 

I don't seeing either the Lindor or Merrifield working from the seller's standpoints ... different reason.

Cleveland is on track to have its payroll to drop (after an arbitration decision on Lindor) to around $60MM .... so dropping payroll is not a prime motivator. As of now (and likely by the trade deadline) Cleveland is in the playoff hunt and if anything need more offense since their pitching is excellent. Their pitching may keep them in contention in 2021. Moreover, if they wait to deal Lindor in the offseason ... when more teams may be motivated and the full array of prospects across the league are in play ... they should have a better set of opportunities for a deal. Lindor is in the class of Betts (talent and age) ... so even with only one year he would command some elite prospects think Betts return without be saddled with Price's contract. In their situation, don't see them motivated to deal Lindor but if they did it would be for at least a couple of elite prospects plus.

Side: Lindor just saw what Betts got in the midst of the COVID ... he will hold out for a similar deal ... and will get it from someone. (probably the LAD).

=======

I wanted to deal for Merrifield for some time .... All-Star quality on an extremely team friendly contract that has 3 years after 2020 (if option exercised). KC, similar to Cleveland, will have their payroll dropping to $60-70MM next year .. so not pushed by Merrifield's contract and he is a favorite to the GM and owner (face of the franchise?). Again no real motivation by KC to deal him barring a major haul they can rely on to be their future. Doubt they will be motivated a some "high ceiling" A ball prospects.

========

 

Quote from MrPadre19 on August 3, 2020, 11:15 am

I am a Whit fan and have advocated for acquiring him for two years.

BUT,give them whatever it takes that "doesn't" include Gore/Patino/Abrams/Campusano.

Mejia/Arias/Naylor/Lucchesi/prospect

Bring up Torrens and eventually Campy.

Put Q into the rotation and eventually Patino.

Give 1b to Cronenworth until Hosmer is back(shouldn't be long)

I really like Arias but to get a guy like Whit it's gotta hurt some.

Or swap out Arias for Trammell.Whit is playing CF for the Royals so they may want one in return and Grisham is looking like our CF'r for the next 5 years at least.

 

 

LOL... can't improve if we hoard all our best prospects!!  Your first proposal is not enough.  One good prospect outside  top 100 & 3 suspects more than prospects.  Whit's age, position, RH, and uncertainty around '21 (covid) & '22 (CBA) seasons MIGHT hurt his value a little, but hard to think of a trade candidate with more value with his cheap $ contract.

MAYBE with Trammell it's enough, but I doubt it.  Dosesn't scream "compelling offer".  I'd focus more on prospects than guys playing now creating depth holes everywhere.

If you honestly assess, even though Abrams might be a future star, he won't be here till... 2022?  Question is if it's OK to stopgap until then on a "perennial contender" and then rely on him to come in hot like a Tatis?   The 3 glaring offense/holes are:  2B, C, DH.   Whit would solve 2B, and Campusano might be the answer at C.  Still time for Mejia/Torrens too (can only improve from present 😉   DH I think this offseason a good chance they can find an upgrade/more "daily/permanent" DH than France or Naylor.

But even this year:

vs RHP:    Tatis,  Grisham (L), Pham, Machado, Hosmer (L), Merrifield, Myers, Mejia (S), Naylor (L) - DH

vs LHP:    Tatis, Merrifield, Pham, Machado, Myers, Hosmer (L), France - DH, Mejia (S), Grisham (L)

... looks like top 5 offense in MLB on paper...

Concur.  Anyone in the Lindor/Merrifield talent base will probably start with Gore and then add on 2 or more high prospects.  We have a good team, but not a championship team like the Dodgers or Yankees.  Can't trade away our key building blocks unless we are much closer than we are today.  I like adding a complementary piece that doesn't cost us an arm and a leg but Merrifield and, certainly Lindor, are currently beyond our reach and probably will continue to be next year.  The 2021-22 FA market will be key as many of our current salaried players will be ending their contracts or be less of an economic albatross.  On the other hand, have to start rewarding our core players with long term contracts, so it will be an interesting balancing act in the coming years.

I don't really expect any major deals at the deadline. Hard to see a "buyer" overpaying for one month of a player and without a lot of buyers a "seller" of any player with longer control may see it more strategic to wait until the winter to get more buyers in play.

=====

I am a bit cautious about a "quick fix" before the Padres have established a legit playoff quality team ... they have not yet.

Next year: Richards is a FA (and if he pitches well in 2020 ... expensive), Lucchesi / Quantrill have proven nothing, Davies (who I like) is in his last control season. So, Paddack and Lamet and ????? For me can't afford to deal either Gore or Patino since next year the Padres may NEED both if they want to contend next season.

Same concern about dealing Campusano ... neither Hedges (only a couple more control years) nor Mejia is establishing themselves and, for a very critical and hard to fill position, Campusano presents the best combo of offense and defense we have seen in some time. Torrens may be a placeholder ... but Campusano represents the future on a contender ... probably in 2022 for him.

======

On the flip side, given how their season is unfolding, Boston may be convinced to move Vasquez (2 years control after this year if option exercised). Good defensively and was a good hitter in 2017 and 2019. Would be a nice bridge to Campusano. Rub may be a lot of teams want a quality catcher now ... so if Boston puts him on the blocks the price may be higher than expected but probably could avoid using an elite prospect. Torrens or Mejia plus a pitcher (Quantrill?) and a deeper prospect? Tough to add a primary catcher with one month to go and expect him to "know" the staff ... his value would be for 2021 and 2022. Vasquez / Torrens sounds good to me for 2021.

 

Quote from MrPadre19 on August 3, 2020, 1:47 pm

It's not so much a case of "surviving" its a case of taking advantage of this expanded playoff season.

Sure we don't have to have Whitfield....but his offensive output at 2b could very well be the difference in this weird season.

Plus he's not overly expensive and we would have him for next year to bridge the gap for Abrams or whoever.

Adding a Catcher would be great too but I just can't imagine the Royals holding onto Whit again this year considering the offers they should get for him.

But who knows....maybe there won't be any significant trades this year...it's just all up in the air.

 

 

Well, all teams want Whits production at his price; affordable!   But not all contending teams need 2B (or "OF"), and of those who do,  no one SHOULD be able to outgun us; no team has more high end prospect talent in their 60-man pool than us.

But Royals really have zero pressure to make a deal.  Someone would have to compel them to do so.  IMO it comes down to Pads willingness to do that.  THAT to me comes down to not creating other foreseeable holes with the trade, and relative needs elsewhere on roster.  Yes, it would hurt to trade a prospect as touted as Abrams.  But I find it hard to believe he's debuting before 2022, at which point Pham is FA, etc.  But I would 100% get Pads stance if it's "we can manage with JC, maybe Mateo, maybe Owen Miller, until Abrams is ready."

But if you're a Pads fan and think Arias, Abrams, & Marcano are fast risers.... in 2 years from now, where do they all play?