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2020 In Season Trade ideas
#421 · September 8, 2020, 12:09 pm
After a week to slowly absorb the flurry of moves at deadline, have a few thoughts...
- Moves are intended to compete both Now AND going forward. Padres aren't cutting 30 MM from payroll next year. If they needed to do that, they wouldn't have gone big so decisively & traded away so many cheap potential replacements (see "pre-2021" thread).
- What Preller accomplished is jaw-dropping. Obvious! But really feel like he's at a different level than most GM's; and where he really gets an "A+" is anticipating market direction & relative value. Re #1 above, think he saw/anticipated a tight offseason trade market with so much uncertainty. With so few teams willing to deal top prospects in this climate, it had the effect of increasing the value of our guys, but also depressing competition, especially with Clevinger; Indians couldn't get a Top 100 MLB prospect not just from us, but presumably from ANYONE! Realized the time was NOW to go all in, but able to do so retaining top 4 prospects, and by all accounts so far STILL a top 5 MLB system. There are subtleties to all the moves that aren't immediately obvious; see below.
- Padres team for 2021 is largely built. In 2020, Pads added 2 SP's, about 14 RP's, exchanged C's, 2B, CF, and LF (Renfroe). We are all going to have to adjust to WAY less wheeling & dealing, and just enjoy our very good MLB team, as I believe Preller is now going to go into "maintenance" mode in 2021... a few tweaks around the edges of the roster.
- Padres aren't dumping guys they just traded for. A lot of "non tender Pham" & "buy out Moreland (after 20 AB!!)" posts already in this 60-game "season of impatience". Think cooler heads of Preller, Tingler, etc will prevail & look at career performance over small samples. They aren't going to capitulate on assets they gave up / trades they just made to save $.
- The Nola/Mariners trade worries me even more now (but see below). The only trade I didn't immediately love was the Nola trade. It's easy to cheer the dramatic offensive upgrade day 1 Nola > Hedges, and I LOVE how assured Nola seeemed right away with the staff. But I was really high on not only Trammell (I had him #2, as a top 25-50 MLB prospect), but also Torrens (#"11-A" if rated as a prospect) and Munoz (#12; still prospect by MLB playing -not service - time). Those guys plus France seemed like a LOT to give up for an outstanding so far, but short resume 30 yr old C and two 27-28 y.o. RP's who are both out of options; one on IL all year. The surprise (to me) selection of Campusano/acceleration of his arrival date seems to diminish the value of the trade to Padres... if Nola is the bridge to Campy as full timer, and that time is less than anticipated, hard to see how Pads come out "ahead" here. BUT.....
- I think I know what the plan is with the 3 Mariners RP's who are all out of options in 2021. I'll elaborate in more detail on the "pre-2021" thread, but after a few days of poring over this, the (dim) light bulb finally went off: I believe Preller will now trade the contracts of both Stammen & Pierce Johnson in the offseason. They will be replaced by Austin Adams & either Taylor Williams or Altavilla in 2021. 1st 2 guys are minimum salary, Altavilla will be 1st yr arb < 1 MM. Pierce Johnson was a good strategic signing by Pads. Decent performance, reasonable contract is a LITTLE high going forward into budget conscious 2021: either 1 year / 3.0 -3.5 MM (2 MM salary , 1 MM buyout 2022, 500K likely incentives) OR 2 years / 5.0 - 5.5 MM. Might need to include a decent prospect in trade to get back a PTBNL & erase 100% salary. Stammen would have to be attached to a "significant" asset, and may still have to eat some of the $ (1 yr: 5.0-5.5 MM as 4 + 1 buyout + 0.5 incentives, or 2 yrs: 8.0 -8.5 MM). An obvious possibility is Joey Lucchesi, who may no longer be in Pads plans, but has some value as an experienced MLB LHSP at minimum $ in 2021. These trades would save $, clear more roster room, and potentially even upgrade at RP... which can be viewed as an additional benefit of the Mariners/Nola trade...
#422 · September 8, 2020, 12:41 pm
To just elaborate on #2 above... We now have an extremely good #1-#5 SP. When we're worried about our #5 SP being Paddack, we have a good team.
But the jaw dropping part is: NO big SP contracts, ALL controlled pre or in Arb, in each of the next 5 years, only 1 of the SP's is eligible for FA! In order: #4 Richards-32 / #3 Davies-27 / #2 Clevinger-29 / #1 Lamet -28/ #5 Paddack-24...
... oh yeah, FOUR top 100 MLB SP prospects: Gore / Patino / Morejon / Weathers... (1 MLB, 3 AA rotation?!)
.... plus in AAA: Baez (former top 100) / Lucchesi / Jake Nix (MLB depth or trade chips)...
....plus #11-20 range in top 5 system: Cole Wilcox / Justin Lange / Reggie Lawson
On paper, the Padres have dominant SP production & depth without having to sign/extend a FA for the next 5+ years, and that's without even drafting any more SP for the next 5 years (obviously going to)! There is no pressure for the next 2 years for a prospect to "come in day 1" as a top of rotation guy; this dramatically increases their odds of success to the relative expectations.
Padres should, for this decade, be able to commit less % of $$ resources to SP than vast majority of other competitive teams due to the deep stable of MLB & prospect arms they have, and the "perfectly" staggered Free Agency dates.
#423 · September 8, 2020, 12:45 pm
Good summary and agree for the most part.
Would differ about Nola / Campusano issue. In this era ... few catchers are “full time” and with the DH both can play and since it appears both can hit cover two slots. Plus Nola is now and maybe Campusano is still a coming attraction. The question is the future of Mejia but the “3 catcher” option is now more valid since all three reportedly have hitting skills ... long control ... and C/DH/RHH 1B options. Plus great depth to cover injury. Basically they have locked down the catcher slot for the next 4 years at a pretty low cost (Hedges was close to terming out anyway).
Agree that the big wheeling and dealing is probably done for awhile ... the starting core is in place and, if the Padres go deep in the playoffs, not a lot of motivation to move any of those core pieces.
Dealing on the fringe to enhance depth ... but agree that Pham and Moreland return. Don’t see them moving any of the top prospects ... maybe the next layer of second tier prospects coupled with some of the “excess” RP for a low cost upgrade for the bench INF / OF.
Since I have the returning roster at about $135MM the question is whether the money is there to move back to the starting 2020 level near $150MM. Guessing they will if the Padres go deep in the playoffs. Still my two targets are a RH closer (Rosenthal, Yates) and a legit reserve OF / Utility bench option. Another $15MM could get that done easily in a depressed FA market or even in a trade if another team is looking to drop payroll for fringe prospects / players.
I am betting the get a deal done with Profar (lower AAV) as a super utility option ... needed in a 162 game schedule ... plus he fits that role.
RH closer will be interesting one ... big demand in MLB .... so contract level is very hard to size. Padres may have to stretch a bit here since as of now the RH closer is Pagan and a long list of unproven / tested options to even fill out the other four (likely) RHRP. Side: of the “new guys” ... Adams looks to be the key with a very high K% and velocity ... but he could be the next Stock et al.