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Trent Grisham
#11 · May 25, 2022, 2:57 pm
Forgot about Nimmo … not sure what he will command as a FA (he is at $7MM via arb) but his stats suggest he is worth a lot more … and is only 29. Think he has a career wRC+ over 130 and about an average 2.0 WAR but in the past two years has been better to a 3-4 WAR level.
He has the age / stats / prime position that should land him a 5 year deal … AAV? $20MM? Given Grisham is apparently not the answer and if the Padres are in the hunt in 2023 … cannot rely on any of the internal prospects or creative position shifts of current players … might be the guy the Padres pursue to replace Grisham and leave the replacement for Myers come from a variety of internal solutions.
As for Grisham, would keep him (he is low cost) and see if they can get anything out of him even as a reserve. Myers will be gone and Profar will be gone after 2023 (likely). So still a bit of a question in the OF waiting for Abrams, Ruiz, Azocar, Tatis(?) take two of the slots. So, Grisham is a bit on transitional insurance. (Note: given Hassell’s poor May … he may need a bit more development time and would not expect him even in 2024).
To add Nimmo and re-sign Musgrove plus one other starter … going to have to rely on some league minimum types to round out the holes … not good for the higher priced / marginal value players such as Lamet, Voit … maybe even Alfaro.
Now will the Mets let Nimmo go FA and not make a real effort to re-sign him? Mets have one of the highest payrolls in MLB ($279MM) and not that much comes off the books after this season. They could slide Marte to CF and have some very good prospects that could impact a corner OF slot. So maybe the re-sign effort is not that firm.
#12 · May 25, 2022, 3:05 pm
Quote from fenn68 on May 25, 2022, 2:57 pmForgot about Nimmo … not sure what he will command as a FA (he is at $7MM via arb) but his stats suggest he is worth a lot more … and is only 29. Think he has a career wRC+ over 130 and about an average 2.0 WAR but in the past two years has been better to a 3-4 WAR level.
The thing with Nimmo, is the same with Conforto. Both have had many injury issues throughout their careers. $20M per year is a lot for a guy if he is not out there 120± games per year.
However, if you think Nimmo is over the injury issue, definitely a good sign.
And as I have said before, I would not be surprised to see Myers back, if SD can sign him for around the $7-10M per season range.
#13 · May 25, 2022, 3:11 pm
I dont think it takes $20...guys without the POWER often get less $$ .. i think we can get him at 5/80
#14 · May 26, 2022, 4:35 am
Quote from Henry Silvestre on May 25, 2022, 3:11 pmI dont think it takes $20...guys without the POWER often get less $$ .. i think we can get him at 5/80
Could be right … for Nimmo he has to stay healthy in 2022.
Four years ago A J Pollock … who also had a injury history … nailed a $60MM/5 year deal … but that was 2019 and with MLB salary escalation would be more now. Also, some think a shorter deal (4 years) is more likely.
Understand the power question (Nimmo is maybe a 10-15 HR type) but will teams change their priorities in the “new ball” era with increasing value for OBP? Offense is down and marginal power is losing its value.
However, as always it may be a straight forward supply vs demand play. A big need for players who can hit and not many out there as FA or via trade … especially if CF is the need. Nimmo probably lands one of those complicated deals with bonus, incentives, opt outs, options making its value somewhat obscure.
#15 · June 24, 2022, 1:16 pm
Time to take a harder look at Grisham’s future with the Padres … and debate the future in CF with Ruiz or Abrams in 2023 and Hassell coming on, maybe 2024 if he accelerates his climb through the minor. That has to be layered in in considering a more aggressive push for a trade for a CF.
Consider:
2022: 236 AB, 191/289/326 (615 OPS)
2021 (second half): 228 AB, 211/296/333 (629 OPS)
That is well below average for a CF on a contender considering that spans about a full season of AB.
Yes, he had a excellent first half of 2021 … but has the league caught up with him and we are seeing the “real” Grisham. Even taking the highs and lows his career (1069 AB) is only 231/324/402. … pretty average overall but on a downward slope. He only has 3 more years of control but at least he will be just a little over league minimum … so maybe hangs on but the Padres should be looking for an upgrade in CF.
#16 · June 24, 2022, 1:59 pm
The way I look at it, IF SD was at full strength with a healthy Tatis and Machado, and with Crone and Nola hitting their norms you can live with Grisham's bat being low in the order, and playing his defense, which I think is getting better to be honest with you.
I would look to upgrade RF over CF at this time. Myers is barely average and hurt often. Mazara is probably a 4A player. And no one in line at this moment to move into the OF from the MiLs.
Abrams, has not looked good in his two stints so far in the MLs. WAAAY over matched at this time. He still looks like a boy among men, he is still young, so has time to grow into man muscles and catch up to ML pitching. But I would not count on him in 2022 or early 2023 to be honest.
Ruiz, this is his first season of really doing something. So.....is he for real, or just having a hot flash in the pan??? Plus, unless he has added some weight, I will voice the same concerns about Ruiz as Abrams. Needs to add his man muscles.
So with the dearth of real ML CF talent, I would not worry about moving Grisham until we have RF taken care of first.
#17 · June 24, 2022, 2:18 pm
Agree that they should not move Grisham unless it is part of a trade that yields a clear CF upgrade. Not ready to commit to Abrams / Ruiz as the starting CF in 2023.
However, if including Grisham in a deal that gets Mullins or Hays or Reynolds … have to go that way.
Could a team hitting on all the other cylinders can cover Grisham’s offense in CF … sure … but not sure that is the 2022 or 2023 Padres. I would be fine with adding a strong corner OF over displacing Grisham if that is the better trade / upgrade. Unlikely can (will) make a major move in BOTH slots.
#18 · June 24, 2022, 2:42 pm
Grisham is the MLB standard CF nowadays. Plus, even with GG caliber defense and below average offense he is and will continue to be in the Padres plans until they can replace him. There are maybe 5 quality CFs in MLB today and the Padres aren't getting any of them without trading Hassell++, which would be counterproductive.
We will only have 1 major league quality OF after this year-Grisham. We only have 2 now. We can HOPE that Abrams starts hitting but that isn't guaranteed. We are getting by with Mazara in the OF right now but I don't think anyone expects him to keep it. If the Padres make a trade it will be to fill a hole, not create more.
#19 · June 24, 2022, 3:00 pm
I would honestly consider trading for 3 yrs of control HAYS (Orioles) he can play CF... or the more costly less controlled Reynolds (Pitt)... we know AJP loves Profar and loves Gallo so he can go after both in FA and land 1..
In 2023 we could field a Gallo/Ruiz/Hays OF allowing the rook a chance to show if he is it... Grish can be the 4th OF (Azocar role) with maybe a bit more playing time ..
Hassell III will be in the convo as soon as ST 2023... Guys like Kowhley/Batten/Rooker all at AAA (only Rooker in 40 atm) will be ST invites with a shot at 5th OF/Utility role.. so will Azocar..
Then in 24 Wood /Mears/Howell/Ornelas will all be knocking if not mid 2023
With our IF set for yrs.. we can afford a rook or 2 (especially with Vets in beach..forgot about Beaty too who should be much better with the bad shoulder fixed) in the OF...
#20 · June 24, 2022, 6:55 pm
We have the 3rd most wins in all of MLB without our best player and with our 2nd best player (potential MVP) currently on the shelf “with” Grisham in CF and guys like Azocar and Mazara getting regular playing time.
I say keep Grish in CF and improve the corners and BP and get Tatis/Machado back and this team is a WS favorite.