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Trades June/July/Deadline
#71 · June 28, 2022, 4:10 pm
Side on Manaea … speculation is that he will be hard to re-sign given the need for SP and coming off a very good season … AND Scott Boras is his agent. Boras will market him to the hilt to every team in MLB.
Padres will go all in on Musgrove whose contract demand is increasing as his success continues. The eight years (for a 29 year old) who stays healthy seems probable and the AAV has to be increasing into the upper 20s to 30 million looking at recent longer term deals for top pitching (even not quite top pitching).
If Boras stretches out the Manaea signing … Padres sign Musgrove then likely go to re-sign Clevinger on a deal much shorter and much lower AAV than Manaea. That would leave money on the table (depending on who opts out) to sign (or trade for) an OF impact bat … maybe needed to re-sign Profar who will likely opt out after his season.
#72 · June 29, 2022, 9:49 am
Interesting blurb on MLBTR about SD and the trade deadline. Basically recaps Fenns post where they posit that SD may/will look into trading from SP depth to add to other items of need, and specifically mentions Snell.
SD is about $600K below the CBT and ownership is showing a reluctance to go over the threshold at this time.
It goes into the difficulties in trying to trade Hosmer and Myers due to injury(Myers) and lack of on field performance (both), and the big dollars both are under contract for the balance of the year.
So it may be a quiet deadline for us Padre fans, and don't expect to see a big acquisition like a Bell, Gallo, or Reynolds. Just dont have the ability to absorb the salary. Even the Lopez acquisition from BAL might be out of the realm of possibility due to the CBT.
Gonna have to get the best out of what we have, and then the return of Machado, Tatis, and maybe some help from a MiL or two, such as Ruiz, Batten, or Khowley.
#73 · June 29, 2022, 11:57 am
Quote from BoosterSD on June 29, 2022, 9:49 amInteresting blurb on MLBTR about SD and the trade deadline. Basically recaps Fenns post where they posit that SD may/will look into trading from SP depth to add to other items of need, and specifically mentions Snell.
SD is about $600K below the CBT and ownership is showing a reluctance to go over the threshold at this time.
It goes into the difficulties in trying to trade Hosmer and Myers due to injury(Myers) and lack of on field performance (both), and the big dollars both are under contract for the balance of the year.
So it may be a quiet deadline for us Padre fans, and don't expect to see a big acquisition like a Bell, Gallo, or Reynolds. Just dont have the ability to absorb the salary. Even the Lopez acquisition from BAL might be out of the realm of possibility due to the CBT.
Gonna have to get the best out of what we have, and then the return of Machado, Tatis, and maybe some help from a MiL or two, such as Ruiz, Batten, or Khowley.
Myers is quite an easy trade actually... u attach $9mil to him..injured or not...cash not salary your trading partner takes on the ($$ counted towards Lux tax left) I believe that would relieve us of $7mil + towards lux tax... I think Lamet is also a good trade candidate his prorated figure should be $2ish mil in payroll lux tax relief..Snell is more valuable trade chip so a straight up trade to say Toronto for a couple/3 specs like C Meza etc.. would be a way for AJP to + prospects to use in other deals and/or backload behind potential exists from our side...
#74 · June 29, 2022, 1:22 pm
I'm keeping Manea ahead of Clevinger ( obviously, Musgrove ahead of both!) but Clevinger better settle for A REALLY LOW offer.
And I assume Martinez and the Pads will be together again next year.
No need for a front line pitcher this deadline.
#75 · June 29, 2022, 1:38 pm
Need a tutorial on how AAV is calculated for players traded mid-season? Assuming the AAV is prorated between the teams … just have not seen that documented anywhere. However, have seen the cash transferred as part of a trade charged to the paying team and credited against the salary of the player for a acquiring team.
Padres are getting credit for payments from the Cubs ($1MM for Darvish) and Twins ($6.6MM for Rogers) and those teams are carrying the money for Tax purposes.
So, if I am right, the Padres would pay Myers remaining salary (about $7MM) and 2023 $1MM buyout plus an incentive for some team to take Myers … let us say $2MM … so pay a total of $10MM. However, Myers AAV is only $13.8MM and 1/3rd is only about $4.4MM. Now this is where I get foggy … first, does the “extra” $2MM get charged to the Padres tax (should they are paying) and second, how does the $8MM in Myers salary owed get inserted into the calculations … in some form should still be charge to the Padres tax calculation sine they are paying it.
I am working off the theory that if the Padres are paying (even if the player is not a Padre) they get charge in the tax calculation.
Think the only way to clear Myers’ AAV (or part) is for some team to take his remaining salary … and that might only happen with the Padres attach prospects valued in excess of $8MM.
Could be totally wrong on this but seems logical.
#76 · June 29, 2022, 2:02 pm
Quote from WindsorUK on June 29, 2022, 1:22 pmI'm keeping Manea ahead of Clevinger ( obviously, Musgrove ahead of both!) but Clevinger better settle for A REALLY LOW offer.
And I assume Martinez and the Pads will be together again next year.
No need for a front line pitcher this deadline.
It will be interesting to follow the re-signing saga for Musgrove, Manaea, Clevinger, and Martinez.
Martinez has to make a quick decision at the end of the season to opt in (opt out) or go FA. If his stats remain as they have … and at his age … betting he opts for FA to get a guaranteed contract even if the dollars are not that much more.
Just no idea on the ask on Musgrove (or the Padres’ limit) … if the earlier report was valid the Padres were willing to go eight years (just way low on dollars). I could see a low end of $200MM/8 years ($25MM AAV) given his age (29) and two years of top of the rotation quality plus a lot of teams looking for a top SP. Based on some recent signings … could be a higher AAV. He has to the the #1 priority.
Manaea with Boras as his agent may be hard to sign … Boras likes to hold to the last minute to get the best deal but at the same time the Padres do have limited resources and a factor will by how much (and how quickly) they can sign Musgrove and their other priorities of adding to the offense and the bullpen.
If Manaea appears to be a hard sign that will drag on … can see them move early on Clevinger who should be had on a shorter deal / lower AAV.
Guessing Martinez will get a better deal from some other team and will not wait for the Padres to clear the other three before being serious about an offer.
The player’s motivation, the agents, the other teams offers takes a lot out of the Padres control … so would not be confident that the Padres can sign these FA.
#77 · June 29, 2022, 5:05 pm
Manea/Mus/Clev and Martinez absolutely love SD and B Mel... I think we could have some favorable deals... I think Martinez Opts in.. if he were to maintain this current performance and duplicate it next year.. in 24 he could opt out and get something like 5/60... in 23 I am not sure he would get much more than 3/30..sure better than what he makes now..but also could end up in Cincinnati and never come close to post season or same = success...
Manea is worth ??? Mid rotation arm as good a #3 as a team can hope for on the wrong side of 30.. 4/64 too much??? 4/50 maybe closer to right on?
Musgrove 8/200 seems about right to me
Clev isbinteresting cause he seems like a guy who would take less money to stay in SD and pay it fwd for SDP taking care of him thru injuries...I may be way of base but a 2 yr/$30 mil type deal?
To that point I have a feeling the Intl draft implementations vs the QO being erased decision won't be resolved til after this season...which I'll beg to ask who would the Pads QO?
Manea Y... Mus Y...Clev Y... Martinez N...Profar N...Rogers ???Maybe
1 yr $20 if one or more of the above were to accept QO would actually be not too bad for Clev or Manea to accept... Rogers too of offered... in any case the draft pick compensation of potential 1 to 3 loses to FA would be at least something (vs outright loses) for Pads
#78 · June 29, 2022, 5:07 pm
I dont know the ins and outs of the Lux Tax..but i do know in the Rizzo to NYY trade. Cubs ate most if not all of Rizzos $$ to allow NYY to stay under Lux last trade deadline
#79 · June 29, 2022, 5:50 pm
Quote from Henry Silvestre on June 29, 2022, 5:07 pmI dont know the ins and outs of the Lux Tax..but i do know in the Rizzo to NYY trade. Cubs ate most if not all of Rizzos $$ to allow NYY to stay under Lux last trade deadline
That is the normal scenario … the selling team with no Cap issues trades a player to a team with a Cap problem … and eats a portion of the contract (which becomes their Cap cost) while the buying team only gets hit for the net of salary and portion eaten by the seller. To get that done, usually the buying team sweetens the deal with better prospects going to the seller.
So, in the Padres case and if they wanted Bell who would send them over cap … they would have to get WASH to eat a major portion of his salary by offering a better package of prospects to WASH. A bad team such as WASH is not taking a high salary veteran in return.
However, sending money with Myers does not help the tax calculation. They have to get a team to pay his salary by offering some quality prospects … essentially the taker of Myers is buying the prospects.
#80 · June 29, 2022, 6:19 pm
Just guessing and thinking about the recent signings of SP in a league of escalating cost of better players and with a shortage of effective SP …
Musgrove: $200MM/8 ($25MM AAV) is probably the minimum
Manaea: more inclined $18MM AAV for 4 years … so, $72MM/4 … better results than given credit for
Clevinger: this one is difficult and expect his deal becomes laden with club options and incentives for starts, All-Star, CY Young votes. However, a base maybe of 2 years (then options). $12MM base with incentives to $15MM. (If he finishes the year performing as he has in the past few starts … that too may be light).
Doubt any give a significant contract break to stay in SD but if the Padres offer is “close” I could see them signing where they have success and a winning team.
As for Martinez, the chance of a guaranteed multi-year deal even for the same salary maybe be appealing at age 31-2. He has as much a chance to tank in 2023 as succeed. If he does Padres dump him (think with a $1MM buyout).
So, an early guess … Musgrove and Clevinger return and Manaea and Martinez go. Padres have to be a bit mindful if AAV payroll if Hosmer does not opt out. The combo of those two could be an upward pressure of $20MM+ while Myers departure only saves $13.8MM … plus have to remember ARB increases will add pressure and only limited relief from departures of Rogers, Johnson, Stammen. Preller will have to make some strategic deals of players with higher AAV for players with lower AAV to create some room for any other add that carries a measurable AAV.