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Trades June/July/Deadline
#51 · June 27, 2022, 4:41 pm
Sort of on the fence on any making any major moves at the trade deadline … but still early with 5 weeks to go.
1. New injuries may re-prioritize needs … no idea the impact and timing of the returns of Tatis, Myers, Machado for the offense and Pomeranz, Suarez, Johnson, and maybe Castillo for the pen. Those seven could have a major upgrade impact on the team.
2. The All-Star break is July 18-21 and that is likely the venue for the GMs to talk trade. Those next three weeks should more clearly separate the seller and buyers … the break to negotiate and deal given only 10 days after before the Aug 1 trade deadline and probably not a lot will change … other than sellers trying to work better deals for players with multiple suitors.
3. Where do the Padres stand at that point … and are any of the players cold or hot?
Have some concern about over doing changes to the roster if potentially already adding seven internal adds/drops … team chemistry is a real thing and it does not take much to cost a few games if it is disrupted and a few games can make the difference between playoffs and also rans.
No clear cut call on needing to make a deal which SHOULD keep Preller for over-reaching / over-paying.
#52 · June 27, 2022, 4:56 pm
Despite the mantra of “you can never have enough pitching” … yes you can if you are not using some of the pitching and have offensive holes costing you games that could have been filled with a strategic trade of some under used pitching.
When the Padres hit Aug (3 off days) and SEP (5 off days) then the playoffs (likely to go with the 4 best SP) … the post trade deadline need for SP (and RP assuming the return of the injured arms) is reduced. Since a number cannot be optioned, might Preller be put into the position that dealing a pitcher (or two) just becomes necessary vs. DFA?
At that point, IF he can acquire an offensive upgrade … might he not deal from the “worst” of the pitchers (not that any are that bad) and deal a better option for a more impactful return?
#53 · June 27, 2022, 5:16 pm
Some old school thinking about trade deadline deals:
1. Add hitters from your own league since they are more familiar with the league pitchers. Yes with the current scouting, hitters from the other league can “see” what the new league pitchers offer but that is not the same as live. Advantage pitchers down the stretch against other league hitters and a better chance of success with hitters from your own league.
2. Add pitchers from the other league since the hitters in your league have yet to see them enough to become comfortable. Advantage pitcher down the stretch.
Exceptions abound but something to consider.
#54 · June 27, 2022, 7:18 pm
Ian Happ is one of my top targets between now and deadline...pretty easy upgrade over Alcantara/Azocar .and someone that can play 5-6 positions and be in the lineup every day all over the place...Controlled as well so not just a rental ..such an add will do no harm to chemistry at all...
If Tatis and Machado are 100% back by the deadline... Happ is enough added offense to those 2 to make us very very dangerous
#55 · June 27, 2022, 7:23 pm
Only other Upgradable position (with a Happ onboard) would be CF... and using your criteria only Reynolds would be a huge upgrade over Grishman...Internally we have Ruiz but he is not in the 40 + he would be a rookie...
#56 · June 28, 2022, 10:35 am
In the current rumor mill the Padres are "linked / interested in" two of the usual suspects: Reynolds and Happ BUT there is a new name ... one most will say "who?".
Jorge Lopez: 29 year old RH relief pitcher for BALT. He is BALT's closer.
Not a household name because he has been a horrible SP for KC and BALT in his first two ML seasons. However, BALT made him their closer this year with eye popping results: 31 games / 36 innings; 0.75 ERA / 0.81 WHIP; 13 saves out of 15 chances. I can see the appeal as a RHRP complement to Rogers LHRP at the end of the game.
Now he has two more years of control (2023-24) and is at a bargain salary of $1.5MM (which would be pro-rated for 2022).
What would it take to get him? 2.5 years control at a very low base salary while having excellent production should push the price up as an "in demand" RP by all contenders. Pushing against that is that this is only 3 months of excellence vs. a career that has not been good (is the change to the pen creating a sustainable improvement?).
#57 · June 28, 2022, 10:50 am
According to a couple of Pirate fan sites, Gamel is set to go out on a rehab assignment shortly. I am anxiously awaiting to see how this goes. IF healthy, I still think he is the OF option for SD.
One of the PIT fan sites pondered a straight up trade of Gamel for Morejon. I think thats a bit of an overpay for Gamel. But I would propose a Lawson/low level MiL upside prospect for Gamel.
#58 · June 28, 2022, 10:58 am
Quote from fenn68 on June 28, 2022, 10:35 amIn the current rumor mill the Padres are "linked / interested in" two of the usual suspects: Reynolds and Happ BUT there is a new name ... one most will say "who?".
Jorge Lopez: 29 year old RH relief pitcher for BALT. He is BALT's closer.
Not a household name because he has been a horrible SP for KC and BALT in his first two ML seasons. However, BALT made him their closer this year with eye popping results: 31 games / 36 innings; 0.75 ERA / 0.81 WHIP; 13 saves out of 15 chances. I can see the appeal as a RHRP complement to Rogers LHRP at the end of the game.
Now he has two more years of control (2023-24) and is at a bargain salary of $1.5MM (which would be pro-rated for 2022).
What would it take to get him? 2.5 years control at a very low base salary while having excellent production should push the price up as an "in demand" RP by all contenders. Pushing against that is that this is only 3 months of excellence vs. a career that has not been good (is the change to the pen creating a sustainable improvement?).
I wonder if BAL would be interested in Lamet. Sure he is starting to get to the expensive side; however, BAL has barely anything of substance on their books, and Mancini is a FA with an option for 2023? So probably their biggest contract is/could go away. But with Lamet, when healthy, a top of the line starter. Or maybe BAL does the same transition with Lamet.
I am sure they would want additional pieces, and we know they dont have interest in Campusano because of Rutschman. I am not giving up Abrams or Hassel for Lopez. Maybe Lamet, Yendry Rojas, and Jairo Iriate for Lopez?
#59 · June 28, 2022, 12:24 pm
Quote from BoosterSD on June 28, 2022, 10:58 amQuote from fenn68 on June 28, 2022, 10:35 amIn the current rumor mill the Padres are "linked / interested in" two of the usual suspects: Reynolds and Happ BUT there is a new name ... one most will say "who?".
Jorge Lopez: 29 year old RH relief pitcher for BALT. He is BALT's closer.
Not a household name because he has been a horrible SP for KC and BALT in his first two ML seasons. However, BALT made him their closer this year with eye popping results: 31 games / 36 innings; 0.75 ERA / 0.81 WHIP; 13 saves out of 15 chances. I can see the appeal as a RHRP complement to Rogers LHRP at the end of the game.
Now he has two more years of control (2023-24) and is at a bargain salary of $1.5MM (which would be pro-rated for 2022).
What would it take to get him? 2.5 years control at a very low base salary while having excellent production should push the price up as an "in demand" RP by all contenders. Pushing against that is that this is only 3 months of excellence vs. a career that has not been good (is the change to the pen creating a sustainable improvement?).
I wonder if BAL would be interested in Lamet. Sure he is starting to get to the expensive side; however, BAL has barely anything of substance on their books, and Mancini is a FA with an option for 2023? So probably their biggest contract is/could go away. But with Lamet, when healthy, a top of the line starter. Or maybe BAL does the same transition with Lamet.
I am sure they would want additional pieces, and we know they dont have interest in Campusano because of Rutschman. I am not giving up Abrams or Hassel for Lopez. Maybe Lamet, Yendry Rojas, and Jairo Iriate for Lopez?
Doubt they have any interest in Lamet at $5MM and one year control and the uncertainty of health going forward. Agree not giving up a top prospect for a RP with a 3 month track record (doubt any team will). On the flip side, BALT has little motivation to deal Lopez given his salary / control. Should be tricky coming up with match that both fits the Padres and Orioles.
Padres probably would try to move "volume" over top quality. BALT probably wants something to help them in the near term ... although would take a lower level prospect to fill out the trade (but probably not the headliner).
Wonder if selecting off the menu of Weathers, Baez, Rosario, Knehr, Rooker, Lawson .. basically Top 30 types from the upper minors would appeal to BALT.
#60 · June 28, 2022, 12:29 pm
Plus, you have to wonder if Lamet could become that same pitcher. Lights out for 1 inning?? Then we already have him, and dont need to give up any additional players. Although Lamet will be even more expensive next year.
In reality, Lamet is looking like a DFA candidate more and more, isnt he?