Quote from fenn68 on July 21, 2022, 3:31 pm

Quote from Henry Silvestre on July 21, 2022, 2:23 pm

MLB.com proposed

Padres and Nats Juan Soto trade

Gore + CJ + Hassell + Mears and Morejon

I would do that... if they add Corbin then one of Gore or CJ comes off.

Let’s just not consider including Corbin who with Soto would but the Padres way over the CBT in 2022 and likely in 2023 unless they chose not to replace OF/SP going FA. 2022 would be the second time (bigger penalties) and 2023 (even bigger penalties).

So back to the proposal … first the Padres would have to clear CBT space (so down some current ML player probably maybe with another prospect). Then, what are the odds even with Soto and Tatis back (if he is productive) the Padres could win the WS? LAD, NYM in the NL have the pitching to shut down offense and then Houston and NYY are juggernauts. I know we like the SD SP … but not the best in MLB and benefit from pitching in SD.

If the Padres went the other route and got a servicable rental bat (or two) … a lot cheaper in terms of propsects with likely the same result in the two month window of 2022.

In the proposal, with Soto probably getting arb in the $25MM range and signing Musgrove in the low 20s … then without Gore or Morejon and maybe Snell if they have to use him for the needed CBT space … Darvish and Musgrove and no money for quality 3-5.

So, trade for Soto and we see 2015 all over again and the Padres dip under .500 in 2023 and continue to sink from there … and the media will be have the new version of how stupid it was to trade Trea Turner and Max Fried and still be losers.

Say no to Soto!

Quote from Henry Silvestre on July 21, 2022, 3:47 pm

In a perfect world I would prefer this

Bryan Reynolds CF + Bednar  RP

Luis Castillo (Reds) SP

Wislon Contreras C

 

CJ Abrams + Grisham + Hassell to Pitt

Wethers + Knerr and Rosario to Reds

Nola + Knehr  to the Cubs

 

We control Reynolds for 3 1/2/ Castillo 1 1/2 and Contreras 2 months ... I would prefer this to just Soto

Quote from WindsorUK on July 21, 2022, 4:02 pm

Be extremely wary of players putting up big numbers in band boxes( see Brian Giles,  Ryan Ludwick) before bringing them to the dead air space that is Petco Park.

The last guy we brought in from Pittsburgh didn't fair very well here either( Frazier).

Maybe bring in a Benitendi or Bell( guys that won't cost Abrams, Hassell, Gore,Wood, or Campusano) because with Tatis and Myers coming back, Ruiz and Abrams in the fold, the O should pick up.

Let's not shoot our entire wad on 1 guy( less of course the Duds might get him!!!!). We're close and it'll be good to get to the top with at least a couple of our own farmhands.

Quote from MrPadre19 on July 21, 2022, 4:12 pm

Something I haven’t seen mentioned.

Even if we have to trade 4-5 top prospects to land Soto we could keep him for this playoff run and next season and still trade him after 2023 and “get back” 2-3 top prospects at positions we need more than SS/C/2B.

We don’t have to extend him for $400 mil or just lose him for nothing after 2 1/2 years.

Quote from BoosterSD on July 21, 2022, 4:13 pm

Quote from Henry Silvestre on July 21, 2022, 3:47 pm

In a perfect world I would prefer this

Bryan Reynolds CF + Bednar  RP

Luis Castillo (Reds) SP

Wislon Contreras C

You have Knehr going in two different trades, unless you mean Kerr, and Knehr?

In this scenario, you are adding in about $9.75M in CBT monies, what are you doing to offset those dollars. The players that you have suggested is about $1.4M, you need to find another $8.35M to come off the books.

You could give away Lamet to CHC, and that gets you $2.0M, you still need to find another $6.35M to get off the books. You could do that by getting Snell and Voit off the books.

Quote from Henry Silvestre on July 21, 2022, 4:23 pm

Quote from BoosterSD on July 21, 2022, 4:13 pm

Quote from Henry Silvestre on July 21, 2022, 3:47 pm

In a perfect world I would prefer this

Bryan Reynolds CF + Bednar  RP

Luis Castillo (Reds) SP

Wislon Contreras C

You have Knehr going in two different trades, unless you mean Kerr, and Knehr?

In this scenario, you are adding in about $9.75M in CBT monies, what are you doing to offset those dollars. The players that you have suggested is about $1.4M, you need to find another $8.35M to come off the books.

You could give away Lamet to CHC, and that gets you $2.0M, you still need to find another $6.35M to get off the books. You could do that by getting Snell and Voit off the books.

Yeah the offset move is pretty much Snell after Castillo add.. no need for 8 SP.. Snell helps in $$ for 22 and 23..

Besides that take your pick Stanmen/Lamet and/or a secondary trade.. for bags of balls

But maybe Seidler has given AJP a cushion to go x amount over Lux tax..since we are going after Soto

Quote from Henry Silvestre on July 21, 2022, 4:48 pm

I am trying to channel my inner AJP and everytime I do...OTHANI keeps popping in my mind...

His value is highest right now..drops off quite a bit in the offseason (chance at 2 postseasons vs 1)..  we get 2 players and Even at $500/10yrs extension with in 2024 the team only has $88 in obligations at this moment.. he would be super cheap now $$ and next yr 2023...if you think we couldn't afford him..think of this Yu 21.4 mil exp after 2023..Myers does this yr 20mil and Profar opts out $8/ and then $10 in 24... there is your $50 per 2024 for Othani..even with Musgrove signed

Mus/Othani

Othani/Tatis/Manny..

Should very much work as #1 with our BP arms incoming we wouldn't need so much $$ in the PEN.. a lot of arms would be making their way to the upper levels maybe not by 24 but 25 or 26 to bolster the SP...

Don't even know if he is available but AJP should be knocking... what's 1 1/2 yrs of Otani cost? GORE + CJ + Hassell + Campusano + Acosta + Susana?

Not sure what LAA is doing/thinking But they need to get value for Otani no?

Quote from lafnboy13 on July 21, 2022, 6:10 pm

Steve Adams sent out an MLTRFO email titled "The Potential Mistake the Nationals Could Make in a Juan Soto Trade". To paraphrase, he speaks about how the Nats should not attach a bad contract to Soto but instead absorb dollars in order to squeeze the maximum prospect return. The Padres are mentioned. Here is the excerpt:

"The best example of this coalescence of needs, however, lies in San Diego. The Padres are in dire need of corner outfield help (Oh hi, Mr. Soto), have their backs up against the luxury-tax wall, and have an unrivaled affinity for jumping into the market for any and all marquee players who become available. Oh yeah, they also have two bad contracts they’ve been trying to move for the better part of two years now.

First baseman Eric Hosmer has $39MM in guaranteed money owed to him from 2023-25. He also has more than 10 years of Major League service, meaning that at the end of this season – his fifth in San Diego – he’ll gain 10-and-5 rights (10 years of service, the past five straight with the same team), thereby granting him the power to block any deal. All the more reason for the Padres to find a way to move him now.

Right fielder Wil Myers is earning $20MM this season and owed a $1MM buyout on a 2023 option that won’t be picked up. He’s a more short-term solution for San Diego’s luxury ledger, but his tax hit comes in just shy of $14MM. The Padres would love to be rid of that number as well, and for the Nationals, he’d be off the books after the 2022 season.

Right-hander Dinelson Lamet, earning $4.775MM this season, is an afterthought for the Padres at this point. His run as an electric starter in the shortened 2020 season feels like a distant memory after a May demotion to the minors on the heels of allowing 10 runs in his first 8 ⅓ innings this year. Lamet pitched well in 17 ⅔ innings between Double-A and Triple-A, but he was tattooed for three runs in 2 ⅓ frames in his first appearance after being recalled to the Majors on July 10. His ERA is now at 10.13. Again, lopping the remainder of his contract off the Padres’ luxury ledger would have to hold appeal to the San Diego front office, and for the Nats, acquiring him would just be the cost of sweetening the Padres’ return a bit.

The elephant in the room with all of this is that the Lerner family, which currently owns the Nationals, is reportedly preparing to sell the franchise before the end of the calendar year. The Lerners, then, are more apt to try to subtract payroll at all costs. A clean payroll only enhances the value to prospective buyers.

Speculatively, you could suggest that the Nationals take back players like Myers, Lamet, Gallo or DeJong – those only signed through the current season (and thus not necessarily a problem for an incoming ownership group). However, that’d require the Lerners agreeing to pay down that salary on their way out the door, and the only real way that makes sense would be if the prospects acquired were considered to boost the franchise value by a greater number than whatever they’d pay to Myers, etc. That’s unlikely to be the case and would be a tough sell to a potential buyer even if the Lerners felt it to be true."

 

I can post the whole thing but it's pretty long. If any of you want me to forward it to you I can.

Quote from fenn68 on July 21, 2022, 7:06 pm

If I was in WASH position of trying to sell the club, my #1 priority was to make the sale more appealing to the buyers … and that may not be getting a bundle of unproven prospects that appeal to the current GM (who likely will get replaced) as the new owners install their own FO. That also may not be keeping Soto as a potential big money sign but clearly an uncertainty for the new owners.

I do buy into the clean the books of all liabilities and uncertainties for a “clean” sale and maybe a better price since the new owners are in it for at least 10 years. New owners can cleanly install their own philosophy from the get go.

So selling Soto linked to Corbin and take the “lesser” prospect package may be best for the sale (both seller and buyer). Not great for the fans … but who cares.