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Trades June/July/Deadline

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Quote from Henry Silvestre on July 20, 2022, 7:36 am

In a creative CRAZY way.. IF the goal of the Nats is to lower $$ obligations so it facilitates the sale of the club...How about thus one...

We take STRAS ($140mil left $35 × 4yrs after this one)Nats finish paying him through this season (current owners so would be the same if NTC they kept him) Boras represents both and Stras being a San Diego boy does us a solid and waives his NTC to Padres only... plus gets to go to a contender versus being stuck in DC losing into the sunset..

In the deal Hosmer (we would pay the remaining of 2022) 3/39 + Myers roughly $9 mil owed for 22 would go to Nationals

Net savings for the future owners of the Nats $101 million dollars (Strasburg)... vs Corbin $49 mil

‐----‐-----------

 

Strasburg deal only counts $23mil per  2023 24 25 26..towards the CBT.. and if Strasburg is healthy (a big IF but I gamble on it).. He helps our SP in 2023 AND replaces YU ($20mil) for 2024 and beyond...

We actually save a few $$ on CBT from this deal... for 22..

Can then pivot and Deal or Not Snell for extra moves..

With us taking $101 mil off Nats the prospect haul should be more like Abrahms (he was #6spec before season) + Susana + Mears + Wethers.

I think Strasburg’s CBT would still be $35MM … that is his level amount for AAV adjusted. IF WASH paid his remaining 2022 the CBT to the Padres would be $35MM offset by cash from WASH as a one year deduct. 2022-26 AVV is what SD would pay.

I have zero faith that Strasburg will be an effective pitcher again … he is 33 and only pitched in something like 8 games since 2019. Padres would be paying $35MM for nothing … worse if Soto walks after 2024. If Soto remains at $40MM AAV … effectively paying $75MM for Soto and an unproductive Strasburg. Add $80MM for Machado, Tatis, and Musgrove … plus whatever it takes to keep 2 time All-Star Cronenworth even via ARB … not much to fund the roster …

As much as I would like Soto … can’t see taking either Corbin or Strasburg’s contacts … and then also pay Soto. That eats a lot of money that could be spent on multiple high quality FA that may result in a better more competitive complete roster.

  • Spotrac says his lux tax $$ is $23 and change.. but . .

If you were AJP how would you approach this deadline ?

I would do it in 2 parts...

Part 1 Resign Musgrove, then maybe go get Contreras and try to unload Hosmer on Chicago by giving Cubs a lot better specs in the deal.. Campusano + Mears + 40-45 spec type return.  In lieu of that Lamet (Cubs have asked for him almost every time we've been linked) would be beneficial... Add a BP arm maybe one of the 2 guys in KC.  Part 1 done (time frame maybe within the next week)...

Part 2 - go after Soto... with Part one out of the way the adds of Tatis/Contreras to the offense alone will go a long way in elevating the offense a few notches... and bolstering a BP that will soon add 2-3 or more arms bolstering it up to very Good maybe even Great status

If we get Soto then It's Party time!.. But if we don't we've upgraded enough to make us relevant in the convo..

Like the saying says don't put all your eggs in one basket....

 

Quote from Henry Silvestre on July 20, 2022, 9:00 am
  • Spotrac says his lux tax $$ is $23 and change.. but . .

If you were AJP how would you approach this deadline ?

I would do it in 2 parts...

Part 1 Resign Musgrove, then maybe go get Contreras and try to unload Hosmer on Chicago by giving Cubs a lot better specs in the deal.. Campusano + Mears + 40-45 spec type return.  In lieu of that Lamet (Cubs have asked for him almost every time we've been linked) would be beneficial... Add a BP arm maybe one of the 2 guys in KC.  Part 1 done (time frame maybe within the next week)...

Part 2 - go after Soto... with Part one out of the way the adds of Tatis/Contreras to the offense alone will go a long way in elevating the offense a few notches... and bolstering a BP that will soon add 2-3 or more arms bolstering it up to very Good maybe even Great status

If we get Soto then It's Party time!.. But if we don't we've upgraded enough to make us relevant in the convo..

Like the saying says don't put all your eggs in one basket....

 

In the Part 1 scenario, it means you'd move one of Crone or Voit to 1B. We lose a starting lefty bat and, in all cases, replace with a righty. Who do we have that is a valuable lefty bat for tough RH days?

Quote from Henry Silvestre on July 20, 2022, 9:00 am
  • Spotrac says his lux tax $$ is $23 and change.. but . .

If you were AJP how would you approach this deadline ?

I would do it in 2 parts...

Part 1 Resign Musgrove, then maybe go get Contreras and try to unload Hosmer on Chicago by giving Cubs a lot better specs in the deal.. Campusano + Mears + 40-45 spec type return.  In lieu of that Lamet (Cubs have asked for him almost every time we've been linked) would be beneficial... Add a BP arm maybe one of the 2 guys in KC.  Part 1 done (time frame maybe within the next week)...

Part 2 - go after Soto... with Part one out of the way the adds of Tatis/Contreras to the offense alone will go a long way in elevating the offense a few notches... and bolstering a BP that will soon add 2-3 or more arms bolstering it up to very Good maybe even Great status

If we get Soto then It's Party time!.. But if we don't we've upgraded enough to make us relevant in the convo..

Like the saying says don't put all your eggs in one basket....

 

Roster Resource has Corbin at $23MM AAV but Strasburg at $35MM AAV. IF they were moved ... Strasburg's would stay the same since it was a flat cash flow but Corbin's would go up since it was backloaded ... guessing up to $29MM.

Watch out for TOR ... they have the money and CBT space ... they have a need for offense / OF .. they have a need for more SP (given the injuries) and even a bad Corbin may be an upgrade (or at least stabilization). On the bubble for a WC and clearly motivated given the firing of the manager while in a WC slot.

Quote from lafnboy13 on July 20, 2022, 9:07 am
Quote from Henry Silvestre on July 20, 2022, 9:00 am
  • Spotrac says his lux tax $$ is $23 and change.. but . .

If you were AJP how would you approach this deadline ?

I would do it in 2 parts...

Part 1 Resign Musgrove, then maybe go get Contreras and try to unload Hosmer on Chicago by giving Cubs a lot better specs in the deal.. Campusano + Mears + 40-45 spec type return.  In lieu of that Lamet (Cubs have asked for him almost every time we've been linked) would be beneficial... Add a BP arm maybe one of the 2 guys in KC.  Part 1 done (time frame maybe within the next week)...

Part 2 - go after Soto... with Part one out of the way the adds of Tatis/Contreras to the offense alone will go a long way in elevating the offense a few notches... and bolstering a BP that will soon add 2-3 or more arms bolstering it up to very Good maybe even Great status

If we get Soto then It's Party time!.. But if we don't we've upgraded enough to make us relevant in the convo..

Like the saying says don't put all your eggs in one basket....

 

In the Part 1 scenario, it means you'd move one of Crone or Voit to 1B. We lose a starting lefty bat and, in all cases, replace with a righty. Who do we have that is a valuable lefty bat for tough RH days?

CJ .275/.320/.385 .705 vs RHP and trending up

Contreras  252/.344/.436 .780 vs RHP

Fernando .288/.356/.596 .951 vs RHP

 

Now the reason I am worried about HOS ..he has a completely reversed split season going in 2022

Normally your concern would be mine as Hos is an excellent hitter vs RHP...BUT a look at 2022.. .248/.319/.355 .674 vs RHP is super easy to replace (his career .288/.353/.452 .810 vs RHP...).... Maybe he needs glasses (serious) cause that is a dramatic drop off

THIRTEEN DAYS LEFT!

 

In 2017 AJP made a nice pre deadline trade on July 24th...

July 24, 2017 San Diego Padres traded Brandon Maurer, Ryan Buchter and RHP Trevor Cahill to Kansas City Royals for cash, 2B Esteury Ruiz, LHP Matt Strahm and Travis Wood

MLBTradeRumors tossed out another name that would be a big gamble but ... maybe?

Michael Conforto. He comes for the price of a contract since it is post-draft and the QO Comp is no longer in play ... has been rehabbing from a shoulder injury. He "was" a very good player for the METS and still got a QO after injury in 2021 (then new injury in the off season).

Boras the agent ... he might sign a deal just for the remainder of the season at a very low price just to re-establish his value and hit FA again in the winter. Or maybe a deal that goes through 2023 allowing some MiL time to get in shape (rehab) but giving the signing team some return value if the time to get to speed is lengthy and minimized the 2022 value. Low base ... big incentives?

With Myers, Mazara, and Profar all potential FA and Grisham under performing ... may need more than one new face for the OF ... he was good (and was at one point a target for Preller). Only 29. Might be a nice gamble depending on the price.

Sort of depends who else may be interested (and what they would offer) but Boras could want Conforto in a winning environment (playoff type team) for showcase purposes. Needs a team that will play him and ideally in a hitter friendly environment (that works against the Padres).

Just a thought if other options are not coming together.

Quote from fenn68 on July 20, 2022, 11:54 am

MLBTradeRumors tossed out another name that would be a big gamble but ... maybe?

Michael Conforto. He comes for the price of a contract since it is post-draft and the QO Comp is no longer in play ... has been rehabbing from a shoulder injury. He "was" a very good player for the METS and still got a QO after injury in 2021 (then new injury in the off season).

Boras the agent ... he might sign a deal just for the remainder of the season at a very low price just to re-establish his value and hit FA again in the winter. Or maybe a deal that goes through 2023 allowing some MiL time to get in shape (rehab) but giving the signing team some return value if the time to get to speed is lengthy and minimized the 2022 value. Low base ... big incentives?

With Myers, Mazara, and Profar all potential FA and Grisham under performing ... may need more than one new face for the OF ... he was good (and was at one point a target for Preller). Only 29. Might be a nice gamble depending on the price.

Sort of depends who else may be interested (and what they would offer) but Boras could want Conforto in a winning environment (playoff type team) for showcase purposes. Needs a team that will play him and ideally in a hitter friendly environment (that works against the Padres).

Just a thought if other options are not coming together.

I saw that.... Comforto might be a good Minor league contract with a MLB options .. if he hits at AAA then gets called up for the remainder of the yr at X $$ maybe even have a +1yr $10mil for 2023 Team option with  a $2mil buyout..or something creative like that..IF healthy and even if we get Soto.. Comforto's bat and approach would fit right in

BTW if indeed 4 teams have inquired I can 💯 see Pads being one of them..AJP leaves no stone unturned

Quote from fenn68 on July 20, 2022, 11:54 am

MLBTradeRumors tossed out another name that would be a big gamble but ... maybe?

Michael Conforto. He comes for the price of a contract since it is post-draft and the QO Comp is no longer in play ... has been rehabbing from a shoulder injury. He "was" a very good player for the METS and still got a QO after injury in 2021 (then new injury in the off season).

Boras the agent ... he might sign a deal just for the remainder of the season at a very low price just to re-establish his value and hit FA again in the winter. Or maybe a deal that goes through 2023 allowing some MiL time to get in shape (rehab) but giving the signing team some return value if the time to get to speed is lengthy and minimized the 2022 value. Low base ... big incentives?

With Myers, Mazara, and Profar all potential FA and Grisham under performing ... may need more than one new face for the OF ... he was good (and was at one point a target for Preller). Only 29. Might be a nice gamble depending on the price.

Sort of depends who else may be interested (and what they would offer) but Boras could want Conforto in a winning environment (playoff type team) for showcase purposes. Needs a team that will play him and ideally in a hitter friendly environment (that works against the Padres).

Just a thought if other options are not coming together.

Im sure no matter what his contract demands would be, they would throw us over the CBT. So, Siedler would have to be willing to stroke that penalty check again, or we would still have to shuttle some salary out the door.

The move of Snell, Lamet, and Voit should be able to cover the add of Conforto and Bell trade.

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