Quote from Henry Silvestre on July 19, 2022, 8:24 pm

If we sent Hosmer owed 3 1/2 $46.5 roughly ($7.5 mil left on 22 ) in actual $$ BUT  more like $60 towards CBT ..$18(pro rated) $18..2023-24-25 to Pittsburgh (or other) + we pay $5 in 23 24 25 ($15 mil total)...they need a 1B and would love to get Campusano for taking on Hos $$.. that would help a lot.. I assume the package for just Soto would have included him ..but with Corbin added perhaps not ..But would still sort of be Included as we would need him to make the deal work as would be the case here...

Moving Hosmer basically becomes a must (if Corbin is indeed added)..

Myers expiring with only $9 (including his buyout) much easier to move with a 45 spec attached to him... and Snell shouldn't be to hard to trade for a little value in return...

Definetely the hardest part would be Hosmer..

For 2023 I wonder if they could make Musgroves deal super friendly $15per for 23 and 24 .. then ramp it up later (as long as his overall $$ is around the $23-$25per range) giving Pads some flex

Quote from Henry Silvestre on July 19, 2022, 8:46 pm

I guess if Musgrove is not signed by tomorrow/Thursday morning then he would be testing FA..cause Thursday afternoon team is flying to NY and is GO TIME! No more $$ talk/distractions..

Quote from fenn68 on July 20, 2022, 3:13 am

Maybe a comp for a Soto trade has to be considered … and yes every deal has different factors including the team / GM motivations so never a perfect model … but maybe useful for “sizing”.

Feb, 2020 BOST traded Mookie Betts … super star MVP type. The deal:

LAD get Betts, David Price, and $48MM from from Boston taking Price’s net to LAD to $48MM/3 years.

BOST gets prospects Verdugo (MLB #35 / LAD #1), Downs (LAD #8), and Wong (LAD #16)

————

So, a comparable deal would be Soto, Corbin, and $20MM (nets to $49MM Corbin cost) for one Top 50 prospect plus two good prospects. Wonder if that is the baseline other GMs are using to control the demand from WASH?

IF San Diego could argue Abrams or Campusano (both near ML as was Verdugo), then maybe Rosario and and A ball prospect? If don’t take Corbin net … prospect would bo up to the value of $49MM (that would be steep) … take the full salary and maybe less in prospects?

Padres have the prospects but not the payroll flexibility and that may give another team an advantage by taking Corbin’s money in the deal given the prospects in the Betts deal are (were) not that compelling. Money speaks loudly … so maybe we should consider SF, TOR and TEX … each have some money (no CBT issue) and enough prospect assets to match the Betts deal. What does WASh really want?

Quote from fenn68 on July 20, 2022, 3:30 am

Follow-up on Betts trade:

Price has be worthless in is 3 year stint with LA … Betts key to winning WS but signed a long term contract and now some concern about his hip injury hindering his future performance … already have seen some reduction in speed and defense.

On Boston’s side, Verdugo is starting but not a “star”,  Jeter is on the ML bubble but not looking like an impact player, and Wong maybe top out as a back-up C (if he makes it).

In the end we see the risk in prospects, the value of money in deals, and the gamble on long term deals even for super-star position players.

Quote from Henry Silvestre on July 20, 2022, 3:34 am

Quote from fenn68 on July 20, 2022, 3:13 am

Maybe a comp for a Soto trade has to be considered … and yes every deal has different factors including the team / GM motivations so never a perfect model … but maybe useful for “sizing”.

Feb, 2020 BOST traded Mookie Betts … super star MVP type. The deal:

LAD get Betts, David Price, and $48MM from from Boston taking Price’s net to LAD to $48MM/3 years.

BOST gets prospects Verdugo (MLB #35 / LAD #1), Downs (LAD #8), and Wong (LAD #16)

————

So, a comparable deal would be Soto, Corbin, and $20MM (nets to $49MM Corbin cost) for one Top 50 prospect plus two good prospects. Wonder if that is the baseline other GMs are using to control the demand from WASH?

IF San Diego could argue Abrams or Campusano (both near ML as was Verdugo), then maybe Rosario and and A ball prospect? If don’t take Corbin net … prospect would bo up to the value of $49MM (that would be steep) … take the full salary and maybe less in prospects?

Padres have the prospects but not the payroll flexibility and that may give another team an advantage by taking Corbin’s money in the deal given the prospects in the Betts deal are (were) not that compelling. Money speaks loudly … so maybe we should consider SF, TOR and TEX … each have some money (no CBT issue) and enough prospect assets to match the Betts deal. What does WASh really want?

I believe Mookie had less control left BUT even if equal Verdugo #36 is no where near Abrams (#6 before graduating)..even Hassell (#24) would be > him.. But Soto is 23 yrs old so yeah we need Abrams OR Hassell (w/Corbin) without Corbin BOTH in the deal.

Washington would also be sending ALL of Corbin and not attaching $$ to the deal.. so factor that in..

AJP is going to need to make 2 or 3 deals to make this work... so he needs to get Soto deal done within next 10-12 days to give himself a shot at making it all happen by the deadline... he also needs to Pivot to Contreras + Beni..or Mancini or Bell.. Castillo? Etc.. if the Nats start dragging this too long...going all in on Soto and not getting him and then not being able to get anything else done would be awful

Quote from fenn68 on July 20, 2022, 7:04 am

Yeh, Preller has to come out with his best offer … not hang around negotiating until WASH makes up their minds. Basically a take it or leave it approach. If leave it, move on to other deals.

Outside chance … if Preller is really willing to clean out the system … he could concurrently pursue other adds by using a different set of prospects. If the targets are “rentals”, could (should) be lesser prospect trade chips in play. Could know from initial discussions with WASH which prospects don’t interest them and which really do.

Would have to be careful on making deals to delete contracts to make room for the adds … move too soon before getting commitment on the add might actually leave the Padres with a lesser team. Can’t make other GMs deal on the Padres’ timeframe. Maybe 3 team deals … maybe timeframe contingent.

Dealing Snell, Voit, or even Hosmer without an add forces them to internal options … that would not be a better roster. I guess they could bet on Myers providing at least equal production as Voit / Hosmer. Do agree with the idea the they could move Myers remaining contract by including some prospect (probably very good prospects to cover the $9MM owed). That could cover most of the targets … but not Soto.

 

Quote from MrPadre19 on July 20, 2022, 7:30 am

Wash has to extend or trade Soto in the next two weeks so this situation is settled before new Ownership takes over.No way they will want to have that to deal with as their first transaction after taking over.Imagine being the new Owners and then being labeled as the ones that "traded Ted Williams at 23 years old".

So,gives a little bit of leverage back to the acquiring team.

I think we are serious buyers in this...but still much to consider and other higher profile/rich teams also involved.

It helps that Atlanta and NY Mets are in their Division...they probably won't want to see Soto 19 times every year.

I think the Yankees(to replace Judge),the Dodgers(because of course) the Cardinals and the Padres are most likely landing spot.

 

All depends on Seidler at this point.We can cover Soto next year with dropping Myers and Hosmers' decrease....but that doesn't include the Musgrove extension.

Also doesn't allow for any other adds to the rotation after possibly losing Manaea(likely) and Clevinger(cost to keep?)

 

Quote from Henry Silvestre on July 20, 2022, 7:36 am

In a creative CRAZY way.. IF the goal of the Nats is to lower $$ obligations so it facilitates the sale of the club...How about thus one...

We take STRAS ($140mil left $35 × 4yrs after this one)Nats finish paying him through this season (current owners so would be the same if NTC they kept him) Boras represents both and Stras being a San Diego boy does us a solid and waives his NTC to Padres only... plus gets to go to a contender versus being stuck in DC losing into the sunset..

In the deal Hosmer (we would pay the remaining of 2022) 3/39 + Myers roughly $9 mil owed for 22 would go to Nationals

Net savings for the future owners of the Nats $101 million dollars (Strasburg)... vs Corbin $49 mil

‐----‐-----------

 

Strasburg deal only counts $23mil per  2023 24 25 26..towards the CBT.. and if Strasburg is healthy (a big IF but I gamble on it).. He helps our SP in 2023 AND replaces YU ($20mil) for 2024 and beyond...

We actually save a few $$ on CBT from this deal... for 22..

Can then pivot and Deal or Not Snell for extra moves..

With us taking $101 mil off Nats the prospect haul should be more like Abrahms (he was #6spec before season) + Susana + Mears + Wethers.

Quote from fenn68 on July 20, 2022, 7:56 am

What is tricky is working in AVV logic not cash paid. Next year Myers AVV drop is only about $13MM and Hosmer’s AAV does not change. Soto in arb should be somewhere in the $22-25MM range … so maybe still $10MM short. Could get there by the FA of Johnson and Stammen ($7MM) and non-tender of Lamet ($4.5MM).

Musgrove’s increase in AAV could be around $14-16MM offset by losing Manaea and Clevinger (re-signing them would send the Padres in the wrong direction).

That still have Rodgers and Mazara clear FA and some unknown on opt outs from Profar and Martinez. Rodgers is on the CBT books at only $0.7MM … so very unlikely to get resigned since it would likely take $10MM AAV. Mazara is at league minimum so re-signing him also will be a pure upward pressure.

If Profar and Martinez opt out would clear about $14MM but no way they can resign both for that amount … so let one go to save a little. However it it Martinez while already losing Manaea and Clevinger … and potentially using Gore to get Soto would kill the SP. If it is Profar with Myers and Mazara gone … who is the LF? Resign them both and need to probably move more AAV … non-tender Voit ($5.5MM) and maybe swing a deal for Garcia or Suarez (PTNL level).

So COULD be done and stay under the CBT … but a lot of  moving parts and requires the Soto add come without Corbin.