Quote from Henry Silvestre on July 18, 2022, 6:23 pm

Quote from fenn68 on July 18, 2022, 6:14 pm

Quote from Henry Silvestre on July 18, 2022, 6:00 pm

Quote from fenn68 on July 18, 2022, 5:01 pm

So, deal for Soto ... I am WASH and demanding Gore and Abrams as ML ready prospects plus Wood the highest upside of the lower level prospects (plus probably a couple of ACL/DSL lottery picks. Then to tie this deal up CBT wise ... I will take Hosmer (and his contract) if the Padres add Ruiz and Hassell. Who says no (Padres are going to have to give quality prospects to anyone to clear Hosmer's full contract and less does not work for CBT).

Think CBT wise that will work for 2023 without dealing anyone else while still signing Musgrove and probably could fit re-signing Profar .. maybe Mazara by making more room with non-tenders of Voit and Lamet.

OF: Profar - Grisham - Soto - Mazara (also DH)

INF: Machado - Tatis - Kim - Cronenworth (Voit is non-tendered)

C: Alfaro - Nola - Campusano (also DH)

Then fill with minimum types: OF Beaty or Kohlway; INF Battan or Rosario ... that might work

RP not worried about with the group still around except for Closer if Pomeranz does not work out and probably could clear some more CBT if needed with trading Garcia and/or Suarez and not really hurt the pen. Clearly Lamet is non-tendered..

SP Musgrove, Darvish, Snell, Morejon, then the best FA SP with the money left under the CBT. This would be the weak link since nothing we have seen this year would suggest another SP in the system is ML ready for a playoff team.

After 2023 Darvish, Snell, and Alfaro are FA ... opening up about $35MM AAV to target replacement pitching and if that pitching in part is internal minimum ... maybe target a CF since nothing position player wise would be left at the upper levels ready for 2024.

So, COULD work if WASH cooperates.

I like my Snell + Hos trade to Boston

Keeping Wood and Ruiz in SD/minors and adding Groome from Sox

Otherwise Yeah it works...

Problem BOST doesn’t like it. Just not going to add $28MM AAV for 2023 (for those two) or even the 1/3rd for 2022. Probably not even if the Padres added Gore and Abrams. For that AAV level they could get a real real good FA SP plus.

Not sure any team would take Hosmer’s contract even if they did not have to give up anything … doubt anyone would claim him on waivers. Padres will have to pay to move him (either prospects or pay down salary).

It may hurt the Padres more to move him than to keep him as an “average” hitter. Keep him and move Voit … let him DH part time.

Looks to be the reality on HOS.. lefty PH..a couple starts at 1B he hasn't DH yet in 2022 but maybe add 1x week DH..whatever..just not batting anywhere but 7-8 or 9th... Guess we could clear the $$ (for Soto) by trading Snell/Lamet and Hill  .. Voit we can keep cause at least he hits em deep when he does..vs slappy Ho who grounds out to 2B more times than not

Quote from fenn68 on July 18, 2022, 6:32 pm

Remember Myers will be back with Tatis.

So + Soto (RF) + Tatis (SS) + Myers (1B/DH) … Mazara (DH) … Hosmer (1B/DH)?

Can live easily without Voit, Batten, and assuming Abrams is gone in the Soto deal.

Quote from fenn68 on July 18, 2022, 6:38 pm

Moving Snell (possible), Voit (harder), and Lamet (hardest) … to some team not WASH … would open the needed CBT space in 2022. Maybe toss in Garcia … injured players will not be moved (no buyers).

So, it is about the prospects that appeal to WASH.

Quote from Henry Silvestre on July 18, 2022, 7:07 pm

For prospect lovers lets take a look at what we would have given up in 2015 had it been our top 6 picks for a Soto

1.Hedges + 2 Renfroe + 3 Wisler + 4 Trea Turner + 5 Liriano + 6 Gettys

Easy YES for Soto... only Turner an AS not one anywhere close to Soto's talent.. the last 2 BUSTS.. Wisler having some success after 1st 6yrs of struggles..has more of a Nick Martinez role and has had some success in yr 7th and 8th (last 2 with Rays)

 

Quote from BoosterSD on July 19, 2022, 7:54 am

So, I read a quick blurb on CBS sports where the writer ponders if WAS will want to possibly attach an unwanted contract to the Soto trade. They suggested Patrick Corbin. So makes me think, could SD/WAS work something out where SD gets Soto and Corbin, and sends lesser prospects, and WAS takes Hosmer in return?

CBT money wise, Hosmer is $18M and Corbin is $23.3M, and owed a lot more real dollars for the balance of the next two seasons. Plus Corbin has $10M deferred to 2025.

On field performance, SD could use some combo of Crone, Myers, and maybe Kohwley for the balance of 2022 at 1B, with Abrams at 2B. And then hope that being back on the west coast and working with Niebla Corbin could return to something closer to his past performance. And that would allow an easier trade of Snell, and bridge the SP gap until some kids are ready.

Quote from sportwarrior on July 19, 2022, 8:26 am

Question... If some permutation of a Soto trade included a swap of Hos for Corbin, would their AAVs be recalculated according to their remaining years under contract for the acquiring teams for CBT purposes? Or would their contracts continue to carry AAV values based on the entire length of their contracts?

Quote from Henry Silvestre on July 19, 2022, 8:32 am

Quote from sportwarrior on July 19, 2022, 8:26 am

Question... If some permutation of a Soto trade included a swap of Hos for Corbin, would their AAVs be recalculated according to their remaining years under contract for the acquiring teams for CBT purposes? Or would their contracts continue to carry AAV values based on the entire length of their contracts?

They stay the same going foward so Corbin 24 for 2023 ..Hos 18 for 2023 (Doesn't impact Wash at all cause they ain't going for lux tax type team anytime soon.. but it does impact us -7 mil less to spend in 23 and -8 in 2024..

Quote from BoosterSD on July 19, 2022, 8:33 am

Quote from sportwarrior on July 19, 2022, 8:26 am

Question... If some permutation of a Soto trade included a swap of Hos for Corbin, would their AAVs be recalculated according to their remaining years under contract for the acquiring teams for CBT purposes? Or would their contracts continue to carry AAV values based on the entire length of their contracts?

Not totally sure, but I believe it stays the same. Fenn might no better.

Quote from Henry Silvestre on July 19, 2022, 8:57 am

Quote from BoosterSD on July 19, 2022, 7:54 am

So, I read a quick blurb on CBS sports where the writer ponders if WAS will want to possibly attach an unwanted contract to the Soto trade. They suggested Patrick Corbin. So makes me think, could SD/WAS work something out where SD gets Soto and Corbin, and sends lesser prospects, and WAS takes Hosmer in return?

CBT money wise, Hosmer is $18M and Corbin is $23.3M, and owed a lot more real dollars for the balance of the next two seasons. Plus Corbin has $10M deferred to 2025.

On field performance, SD could use some combo of Crone, Myers, and maybe Kohwley for the balance of 2022 at 1B, with Abrams at 2B. And then hope that being back on the west coast and working with Niebla Corbin could return to something closer to his past performance. And that would allow an easier trade of Snell, and bridge the SP gap until some kids are ready.

I was thinking Stras just now BUT that $35 mil is Impossible for us Lux Tax for 4 more yrs

 

I like the Corbin take.. he has been terrible for a few yrs...but was an All Star 2x.  We have 3 openings heading into next season..and Having Corbin at #5 can't be worst (at least team record wise 1-9 ) than Snell .. who would be traded at some point (deadline or offseason)..

So in Corbin we are roughly taking on +$13 mil more towards Lux tax (+6 and +7 23/24)And roughly an equal amount +$13mil in actual $$ owed although in 1 less yr..which lines up with Soto's new deal (if he stays in SD)... the additional $$ we take on should reduce the prospect haul to Nats or we could simply get Josh Bell (with Soto to offset $$ and keep the prospect haul in place for Nats...) after trade prorated we would be $14 mil over Lux Tax.. if Siedler is ok paying the $4.2 tax penalty + the $14 mil additional $$ for the remaining of 2022 $$..LFGOSD!... if not ..AJP could Sell Snell with Lamet attached to the deal to an AlEast team for a couple specs and be at a net $0 Lux Tax overage maybe even $1.5 mil under it...

To Padres ..Corbin + Bell + Soto

To Nats .. Hosmer + Hassell + Gore + Campusano + CJ Abrams + SS Victor Acosta + OF Zavala + Knerr + P Susana

40 man after trade +3 -5 = -2 38/40..for upcoming moves

After trade we would be ($14mil over Lux tax roughly)

With Snelln+ Lamet trade to AL East or elsewhere imminent.. or could be Voit+ Snell... other.. for net $0 sum Luxtax implications for 2022 and a reset for 2023