Quote from BoosterSD on July 18, 2022, 2:53 pm

Quote from WindsorUK on July 18, 2022, 2:29 pm

Soto is intriguing.....but at what cost?

Teaming him with Tatis and Machado would be incredible but, after AJ dumping so many prospects( read: low cost) do we have enough everyday players to compete?

A package with Grisham and Cronenworth ( a Gold Glover and All Star, both under control for what 3 years beyond 2022?)  Abrams ( our top prospect), Hassell( second best prospect) puts a huge dent in roster.

I'm thinking either Abrams or Hassell( dare I say both? Not to mention Woods if he's included)) have strong futures here....I'm not sure Soto's bat replaces so many other holes???? See Mike Trout in Orange County.....you need A LOT of good players, not just a few.

At this time, Grisham is easily replaceable and not sure that WAS would want him. Crone, a good piece, but probably not enough control to be enticing to WAS.

Abrams has to be included you would think. So Abrams, Wood , Susana,  Zavala, Rosario, Weathers, and Knehr.

Quote from BoosterSD on July 18, 2022, 3:15 pm

Quote from fenn68 on July 18, 2022, 2:44 pm

Quote from BoosterSD on July 18, 2022, 2:03 pm

So if we were able to have the prospects to get Soto, and say that he signs an extension, for $450 over 12 years, that would be a $37.5M CBT hit. This would also include $22.5M for Musgrove (guess).

Leaving about $1M available  in 2023. $46M in 2024, $34M in 2025, and $60M in 2026.

 

If you are dealing top prospects for Soto ... not filling out the last 13 with top prospects. Plus to move some of the guaranteed contracts (that you don't want) probably need to trade more prospects. Guessing would want to make room to keep Cronenworth at least and probably Alfaro.

So, theoretically possible to stay under the CBT in 2023 ... but not sure (especially with the SP) Padres end up with a playoff team.

Still think IF the Padres want Soto ... and believe he will go to FA for max money ... wait until 2025 when the CBT window is much larger as most of the team on guaranteed deals are gone and "hopefully" all those top prospect are with the Padres ... producing on a league minimum salary.

The only problem, is the longer Soto is in WAS, the more time some other team has to get in their. So you got to strike while the iron is hot.

Yes, it would be difficult to stay under CBT for 2023 with both Soto and Musgrove. They would have to move Hosmer, leaving another hole to fill.

So Siedler is going to have to decide if he really can play with the big boys, NYY, BOS, and LAD and sign a check. Its only money!!!

 

Quote from Henry Silvestre on July 18, 2022, 3:49 pm

Quote from WindsorUK on July 18, 2022, 2:29 pm

Soto is intriguing.....but at what cost?

Teaming him with Tatis and Machado would be incredible but, after AJ dumping so many prospects( read: low cost) do we have enough everyday players to compete?

A package with Grisham and Cronenworth ( a Gold Glover and All Star, both under control for what 3 years beyond 2022?)  Abrams ( our top prospect), Hassell( second best prospect) puts a huge dent in roster.

I'm thinking either Abrams or Hassell( dare I say both? Not to mention Woods if he's included)) have strong futures here....I'm not sure Soto's bat replaces so many other holes???? See Mike Trout in Orange County.....you need A LOT of good players, not just a few.

100% 3 of (Hassell/Abrams/ Gore/Wood) will be included...[I prefer to keep Wood]

The way I see it

IF we can move Hosmer.. and trade Snell for 23.. assuming opt outs by NIck Mart and Profar BUT not Suarez

About $100 mil below CBT

Musgrove $23

SOTO $25 (ARB)

$62 .left

1B ?

2B Crone

3B Machado

SS Kim/Tatis

C Alfaro/Nola

RF/Tatis

CF/ Ruiz

LF Soto

DH Voit

Bench- Grish/Batten/Kowhley (AAA OF/1B)/Betty others and either a minimum guy like Hollis or Howell(AA)..or even Ornelas (AA)

So ONLY need a 1B.. doesn't even have to be a world beater .. just a .700 OPS guy like Hos.. cause the Offense can carry...

SP Yu/Musgrove/(Wethers/Lawson/Knehr)

Obviously we need 2 to 3 SP.. with Gore and Snell traded

BP Adams/Morejon/Pomz/Hill/Garcia/Suarez/Johnson/Cristmatt/Wilson/Castillo/Cosgrove/Jakob/ Baez etc.etc.. dont even need to add any..until the deadline if we see a need..but having healthy 13-15 arms including some would be rookies is pretty deep..could even see AJP trading some for other pieces (SP/1B/OF)

So that's 2023 with roughly 48 mil for 2 to 3 SP and maybe another OF

1 can be Manea or Clev..1 Martinez reneg..Voit can always be non tendered..Lamet too more money ($10cleaered ) etc...

My point is we can 100% afford Soto in 2023.. If we resign him down the line Yu $20mil plus off the books for 2024.. by then Merrill/Mears/Wood and others who survived the Soto trade will be ready to assume or compete for MLB jobs in SD.. more low cost min types .. by 2025 we could start to see Susana ..Lesko..and others rise to the surface in SP and some like Snelling by 26..there are a few arms in LE/FtWayne and SA who could at least bridge the gap.. low cost SP (think Zach Davies $1.4mil for 2022) are always available in FA to fill in SP #5-6-7... so does this team => than 2022?...

I think yes cause Tatis hasn't played a game and even in 2021 with a lot worst SP at 94 games the team was 54-40..better than this version.. So with Tatis AND Soto would we have won 60 and lost 34 so far this year? Especially with a healthy BP... +8 W/-8 loses.. I think so... dont think replacing Snell's (results) team is 1-9 in his 10 starts  is an issue ..no matter who replaces him

And if we are a bit short on SP at the deadline next yr..we can go get ourselves a rental or 2.. Castillo and Nola would be expiring ...fyi

Quote from Henry Silvestre on July 18, 2022, 4:02 pm

First Basemen

 

Jose Abreu (36)

Jesus Aguilar (33)

Josh Bell (30)

Brandon Belt (35)

Yuli Gurriel (39)

Eric Hosmer (33) – can opt out of remaining three years, $39MM

Trey Mancini (31)

Max Muncy (32) – $13MM club option with a $1.5MM buyout

Anthony Rizzo (33) – can opt out of remaining one year, $16MM

Miguel Sano (30) – $14MM club option with a $2.75MM buyout

Carlos Santana (37)

Yoshi Tsutsugo (31)

FREE AGENTS to be 1St Baseman... think we can find a replacement for Hos at $8 mil or less in this group... 💯

Quote from Henry Silvestre on July 18, 2022, 4:16 pm

Unlike most trades for controlled players seem to favor the selling club in the offseason vs the deadline....

Soto's availability to a team for 3 post seasons shots (acquiring club assuming 2 1/2 and out the door he goes) RIGHT NOW would net/should net the Nats the biggest possible return ..Every team within 5 games of a WC will be calling and offering..the price tag will decimate even the deepest of systems and the $17 mil for 2022 won't scare anyone not the NYY not the LAD and certainly not the Padres...

Padres can offer a package of ready MLB stud specs recently graduated .. CJ and Gore..and Dream on specs ready by 23 24 or 25.. in players like Campusano/Rosario/Hassell/Merrill/Mears/Wood/Susana/Acosta/etc etc...

Few teams could do this cause #1 they rely on their prospects Rays/Orioles/Guardians come to mind .  But in reality most don't have the now ready and dream on mix that the Nats would be crazy not to ask for... if they just ask for prospects 3 4 5 yrs down the line that is a mistake.. BUT having a talented rookie like CJ Abrams.. and Gore on hand and plenty of other pieces down the line is a combo that they should pursuit and at which their Fans would get excited about.. watching Abrams everyday at SS and his development going foward would be what I as a fan would want SD to acquire if one day we are in the same situation of having  to trade a super star... Go Get it Done AJP!

Quote from fenn68 on July 18, 2022, 5:01 pm

So, deal for Soto ... I am WASH and demanding Gore and Abrams as ML ready prospects plus Wood the highest upside of the lower level prospects (plus probably a couple of ACL/DSL lottery picks. Then to tie this deal up CBT wise ... I will take Hosmer (and his contract) if the Padres add Ruiz and Hassell. Who says no (Padres are going to have to give quality prospects to anyone to clear Hosmer's full contract and less does not work for CBT).

Think CBT wise that will work for 2023 without dealing anyone else while still signing Musgrove and probably could fit re-signing Profar .. maybe Mazara by making more room with non-tenders of Voit and Lamet.

OF: Profar - Grisham - Soto - Mazara (also DH)

INF: Machado - Tatis - Kim - Cronenworth (Voit is non-tendered)

C: Alfaro - Nola - Campusano (also DH)

Then fill with minimum types: OF Beaty or Kohlway; INF Battan or Rosario ... that might work

RP not worried about with the group still around except for Closer if Pomeranz does not work out and probably could clear some more CBT if needed with trading Garcia and/or Suarez and not really hurt the pen. Clearly Lamet is non-tendered..

SP Musgrove, Darvish, Snell, Morejon, then the best FA SP with the money left under the CBT. This would be the weak link since nothing we have seen this year would suggest another SP in the system is ML ready for a playoff team.

After 2023 Darvish, Snell, and Alfaro are FA ... opening up about $35MM AAV to target replacement pitching and if that pitching in part is internal minimum ... maybe target a CF since nothing position player wise would be left at the upper levels ready for 2024.

So, COULD work if WASH cooperates.

Quote from Henry Silvestre on July 18, 2022, 6:00 pm

Quote from fenn68 on July 18, 2022, 5:01 pm

So, deal for Soto ... I am WASH and demanding Gore and Abrams as ML ready prospects plus Wood the highest upside of the lower level prospects (plus probably a couple of ACL/DSL lottery picks. Then to tie this deal up CBT wise ... I will take Hosmer (and his contract) if the Padres add Ruiz and Hassell. Who says no (Padres are going to have to give quality prospects to anyone to clear Hosmer's full contract and less does not work for CBT).

Think CBT wise that will work for 2023 without dealing anyone else while still signing Musgrove and probably could fit re-signing Profar .. maybe Mazara by making more room with non-tenders of Voit and Lamet.

OF: Profar - Grisham - Soto - Mazara (also DH)

INF: Machado - Tatis - Kim - Cronenworth (Voit is non-tendered)

C: Alfaro - Nola - Campusano (also DH)

Then fill with minimum types: OF Beaty or Kohlway; INF Battan or Rosario ... that might work

RP not worried about with the group still around except for Closer if Pomeranz does not work out and probably could clear some more CBT if needed with trading Garcia and/or Suarez and not really hurt the pen. Clearly Lamet is non-tendered..

SP Musgrove, Darvish, Snell, Morejon, then the best FA SP with the money left under the CBT. This would be the weak link since nothing we have seen this year would suggest another SP in the system is ML ready for a playoff team.

After 2023 Darvish, Snell, and Alfaro are FA ... opening up about $35MM AAV to target replacement pitching and if that pitching in part is internal minimum ... maybe target a CF since nothing position player wise would be left at the upper levels ready for 2024.

So, COULD work if WASH cooperates.

I like my Snell + Hos trade to Boston

Keeping Wood and Ruiz in SD/minors and adding Groome from Sox

Otherwise Yeah it works...

Quote from Henry Silvestre on July 18, 2022, 6:12 pm

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10042314-juan-soto-trade-rumors-padres-want-to-pair-nationals-star-with-fernando-tatis-jr

 

Good bye farm... here we go

Quote from fenn68 on July 18, 2022, 6:14 pm

Quote from Henry Silvestre on July 18, 2022, 6:00 pm

Quote from fenn68 on July 18, 2022, 5:01 pm

So, deal for Soto ... I am WASH and demanding Gore and Abrams as ML ready prospects plus Wood the highest upside of the lower level prospects (plus probably a couple of ACL/DSL lottery picks. Then to tie this deal up CBT wise ... I will take Hosmer (and his contract) if the Padres add Ruiz and Hassell. Who says no (Padres are going to have to give quality prospects to anyone to clear Hosmer's full contract and less does not work for CBT).

Think CBT wise that will work for 2023 without dealing anyone else while still signing Musgrove and probably could fit re-signing Profar .. maybe Mazara by making more room with non-tenders of Voit and Lamet.

OF: Profar - Grisham - Soto - Mazara (also DH)

INF: Machado - Tatis - Kim - Cronenworth (Voit is non-tendered)

C: Alfaro - Nola - Campusano (also DH)

Then fill with minimum types: OF Beaty or Kohlway; INF Battan or Rosario ... that might work

RP not worried about with the group still around except for Closer if Pomeranz does not work out and probably could clear some more CBT if needed with trading Garcia and/or Suarez and not really hurt the pen. Clearly Lamet is non-tendered..

SP Musgrove, Darvish, Snell, Morejon, then the best FA SP with the money left under the CBT. This would be the weak link since nothing we have seen this year would suggest another SP in the system is ML ready for a playoff team.

After 2023 Darvish, Snell, and Alfaro are FA ... opening up about $35MM AAV to target replacement pitching and if that pitching in part is internal minimum ... maybe target a CF since nothing position player wise would be left at the upper levels ready for 2024.

So, COULD work if WASH cooperates.

I like my Snell + Hos trade to Boston

Keeping Wood and Ruiz in SD/minors and adding Groome from Sox

Otherwise Yeah it works...

Problem BOST doesn’t like it. Just not going to add $28MM AAV for 2023 (for those two) or even the 1/3rd for 2022. Probably not even if the Padres added Gore and Abrams. For that AAV level they could get a real real good FA SP plus.

Not sure any team would take Hosmer’s contract even if they did not have to give up anything … doubt anyone would claim him on waivers. Padres will have to pay to move him (either prospects or pay down salary).

It may hurt the Padres more to move him than to keep him as an “average” hitter. Keep him and move Voit … let him DH part time.