Quote from fenn68 on July 10, 2022, 5:47 am

Quote from Henry Silvestre on July 10, 2022, 5:26 am

Or we could look at Contreras Career Splits at Petco

 

341

.473

.614

1.086

The risk on any of the potential adds is determining where they are now since they need to produce in the moment. Career stats may be better used for a long term adds but less so for Aug/Sep 2022. .227 AWAY from Wrigley is a concern.

Would I take him … yes but might be reluctant to pay a high price if I could use those trade chip for Bell or Benintendi. All FA after the season … so no long term commitment.

Quote from Henry Silvestre on July 10, 2022, 5:52 am

Quote from fenn68 on July 10, 2022, 5:47 am

Quote from Henry Silvestre on July 10, 2022, 5:26 am

Or we could look at Contreras Career Splits at Petco

 

341

.473

.614

1.086

The risk on any of the potential adds is determining where they are now since they need to produce in the moment. Career stats may be better used for a long term adds but less so for Aug/Sep 2022. .227 AWAY from Wrigley is a concern.

Would I take him … yes but might be reluctant to pay a high price if I could use those trade chip for Bell or Benintendi. All FA after the season … so no long term commitment.

Just did a filter of 110PAs 2022 vs RHP

Manny #8

Benintendi #2

CJ Cron and Bell both up there too.. out of would be/could be available targets...

Potential Dark Horse is the always overlooked Garrett Cooper (1B/DH)...career OPS vs RHP .823 vs LHP .811 so an everyday option.. 2022 in the top 20 vs RHP.. $$$ is very low at $2.5 (easier to fit)..and is controlled for 1 more season after 22... not a HUGE HR guy.. but > than Hosmer.. and a very consistent bat (vs Voit wild ride at the plate).. almost the perfect #2 or #5 hitter in a lineup..

 

Alfaro #99 vs RHP ... is our 2nd Padres on that list...(Tatis career OPS .981 vs rhb... we really miss his bat a lot)

Contreras (career .786 vs RHP) is very solid as well..

Lots of Orioles in between Manny #8 and Alfaro #99...Mancini..Mullens..Hays..

My thoughts on Benintendi is that he plays same position as Profar.. and doesn't really play CF anymore.. does he upgrade the team yes.. but is he a > fit than Mancini or others ???

Quote from fenn68 on July 10, 2022, 6:23 am

Just a general comment on the price of “rentals” … expect the cost to be less than a lot of the speculation … not cheap but not premium. Few (if any GM) are going to pay premium for 2 months of a player that may (or may not) be impactful in a new environment or even if productive may (or may not) alter the team’s fate.

It usually takes a player with multiple years control (e.g. Reynolds) to pry a top prospect from a GM … plus behind the scenes we really don’t know who the GM thinks is a top prospect since the generally have a different view than the ranking systems.

For a “rental”, would be surprised to see Gore - Abrams - Hassell - Wood - Merrill - Campusano in a deal unless more is coming back in the deal.

Maybe closer to Weathers, Knehr, Lawson, Rosario, and some lower level prospect types. Really becomes a function of what other teams may be offering for 2 months and has little to do with the technical seasonal value of the player given the seller has little motivation to hold on to a FA to be.

Doubt much happens until the last moment … and in Preller’s case has to factor in the returns of Tatis and Myers adding offense and taking roster slots combined with figuring out how to cover the CBT salaries of any of the potential adds.

Guessng Preller is not locked into any one option … if player A is too expensive he will just shift to player B given there is no guarantee that any add will be what what we hope … the potential performance overlap among the options has to be considered.

Quote from fenn68 on July 10, 2022, 6:41 am

Keep in mind that given Voit’s problems with LHP … the DH role is available to shift players to get a bat in the line-up that does hit LHP. That sort of makes room for any of the potential adds … no matter their fielding position.

I guess … at this point … we have to consider the status of Profar and will he be healthy going forward? Will his performance deteriorate post injury? Is Ruiz a factor?

Just to make it more interesting … we have Grisham who is not hitting anyone anywhere with less than gold glove defense and with a poor overall team offense … should the Padres compromise some defense for offense? Do they insert the inexperienced Ruiz, do they test Tatis (but that leaves Kim/Abrams at SS), do they shift a healthy Profar to CF? Do the add Benintendi (are stretch him as a CF)? Do they deal with OAK for Laureano (don’t know Melvin’s opinion of him)?

Just another layer of TBD over the next 3 weeks … a lot of interrelations that could impact moves. Don’t think Preller can make any one move without considering what is happening with the rest of the line-up. One move is not going to be the difference.

 

Quote from Henry Silvestre on July 10, 2022, 6:43 am

Quote from fenn68 on July 10, 2022, 6:23 am

Just a general comment on the price of “rentals” … expect the cost to be less than a lot of the speculation … not cheap but not premium. Few (if any GM) are going to pay premium for 2 months of a player that may (or may not) be impactful in a new environment or even if productive may (or may not) alter the team’s fate.

It usually takes a player with multiple years control (e.g. Reynolds) to pry a top prospect from a GM … plus behind the scenes we really don’t know who the GM thinks is a top prospect since the generally have a different view than the ranking systems.

For a “rental”, would be surprised to see Gore - Abrams - Hassell - Wood - Merrill - Campusano in a deal unless more is coming back in the deal.

Maybe closer to Weathers, Knehr, Lawson, Rosario, and some lower level prospect types. Really becomes a function of what other teams may be offering for 2 months and has little to do with the technical seasonal value of the player given the seller has little motivation to hold on to a FA to be.

Doubt much happens until the last moment … and in Preller’s case has to factor in the returns of Tatis and Myers adding offense and taking roster slots combined with figuring out how to cover the CBT salaries of any of the potential adds.

Guessng Preller is not locked into any one option … if player A is too expensive he will just shift to player B given there is no guarantee that any add will be what what we hope … the potential performance overlap among the options has to be considered.

The player psych portion of the deadline is also a Thing... last year we had Max just to not get him at the last second..(LAD) and the team went on an injury riddle/what seemed low morale from that point fwd..Not so worried with Bo Mel around about something like that happening....BUT I am about a potential bidding war with LAD or others for Musgrove.. say we offer 6/135 and they do 6/150... we dont make a splash at the deadline and they add a bat.. Musgrove home town discount and all could easily say thanks for the memories I am going up north...whereas if we add a bat for beyond 2022 .. like Happ/Reynolds/Hays/Laureano etc... Musgrove may say ..yeah you've showed me you got my back by helping us out with Bat additions and future commitments to improve ..ill take the redux in pay to stay and play for my Padres...

Quote from Henry Silvestre on July 10, 2022, 6:53 am

Just some food for thought Baseball Reference has Grishman at 1.3 WAR and Reynolds at 1.8 WAR... definetely not a huge difference

Does adding the super low cost Grisham to a Pirate deal make the prospect cost much less? Does Grishman + CJ Abrams + Campusano get us Reynolds? Or Grishman + CJ(or Hassell) = Laureano...? What about Hays?...

Do we pay more prospect wise (without Grish in the deal/s) and then flip him to the CF starved Marlins for a trio of specs or a BP arm and a spec?...

Man AJP must be in heaven and he'll at the same time with all these balls up in the air... Get r done AJP! Whatever u think Get r done is... 😆 🤣 😂

BTW Happ career splits vs RHP .833 OPS.. solid OBP .347..and SLG .486. BA .246

Quote from Henry Silvestre on July 10, 2022, 7:29 am

Oh man oh man... took a peek at WC standings in both leagues...

The AL is very competitive and even the Orioles are a few games out...a surprise team on the sellers side The LAA... 7 games back with literally everyone except KC and Detroit ahead of them...could this be the year (offseason or deadline) they hit the reset button and trade one or both of Trout and/or Othani??.. would the Orioles emerge as a potential blockbuster Snellzilla + Voit + Grish + specs partner for Hays (or Mullens) + Mancini (or Pablo Lopez ).. look at them Orioles about to pass the Blue Jays ...

Hell the East alone BoSox/Rays (lol)/Jays and Orioles might enter into a bidding WAR for Snell...

The NL is a little more clear with Cubs/Nats sellers . AZ/Colorado/Pitt/Miami nearing that seller point as well... and SF 2 more bad weeks away from joining the sellers as well...

SF could be interesting seller.. aging club..lots of $$ dropping off in the offseason (local boy Aaron Judge a FA).. could probably get a small kings ransom for Rodon..(131 innings is about where he breaks down) they could really clear their roster and add lots of lotto tickets to their farm ..for the re-tool.. they could target prospects like Ruiz (not saying Pads interested or not on any Giants..just pointing out what they could be looking at in return/s vs the traditional 3-4 yr out lotto ticket..if their plan is to go BIG in FA (Judge/Bell/Contreras all fits in SF) In the offseason..more seasoned almost ready mlbers...

Quote from Jeremy Hill on July 10, 2022, 8:16 am

.243/.309/.356 is not what I would call good against RHP. Hosmer has hit lefties surprisingly well, but that is major regression against righties. Also if you look at monthly splits he has been absolutely terrible since the end of April.

Quote from fenn68 on July 10, 2022, 8:24 am

I would guess some team would take Grisham (control / low cost) but he would not carry much value and not displace including one of the better prospects needed for a deal. His bat this year and the second half of last year pretty much has killed any trade value … WAR aside.

Pretty much writing off getting anyone from BALT except maybe Mancini based on their GM’s comments that they see the current core delivering some real success over the next few years. Actually beyond being sellers maybe not buyers with the prospects they have supporting that future vision. Getting the sense their GM may be looking for a longer run success than gambling on overtaking others for the 2022 wild card. Also, historically they are cheap … so not taking on money now. Probably buy time until winter moves.

Reynolds may be different with PITT … but not waiting until PITT decides … probably the last minute and that may be after the other alternative are dealt to others. Preller can’t afford to wait on PITT … and lose out on others.

Laureano may be moving up the line as a “controlled” CF add (upgrade from Grisham) but maybe not the bat the line-up needs.

Sort of funneling back to Contreras, Bell, Benintendi as rentals or Happ controlled in 2023.