Quote from fenn68 on July 10, 2022, 8:52 am

LAA are out of the playoff race and have a decision considering not a great farm system. Trout big money / big star / long control. Otani big star / for now low money / one year control to be followed by a world record contract / hard to understand his priorities. Rendon older / big contract / big dollars / perpetually injured.

Not sure they can do enough in adds to overcome Houston (or even SEA / TEX) in the next few year … so a rebuild on paper makes sense.

Moving Rendon (and his contract) seems unlikely … just has not been performing.

Moving Trout is unlikely since will have to find a team that could take his massive contract AND give a top return.

Moving Otani … possible … great player / low contract BUT only controlled in 2023 then open bidding for a contract that likely will be the highest of all time. What would a team pay knowing they can’t resign him after 2023?

So, maybe the LAA end up with salary relief but not a lot in the way of prospect … just not both.

Guess … Otani gets dealt … to the METS who really want the big market impact plus they will spend the money as we have seen.

Guess … Trout gets dealt … to the NYY to replace Judge making the incremental cost more acceptable and fits the arms war with the METS.

Guess … Rendon goes nowhere.

Also, not sure where this stands but LAA and Anaheim were back on forth on a new (refurbished) BIG A vs. LAA moving to somewhere else in Orange County … that could actually drain money for LAA in the short run. Money is money.

With the commitments to Machado, Tatis, and hopefully Musgrove … can’t see the Padres playing at those levels. At least I am not guessing they go to the LAD.

 

Quote from Henry Silvestre on July 10, 2022, 9:02 am

Quote from fenn68 on July 10, 2022, 8:24 am

I would guess some team would take Grisham (control / low cost) but he would not carry much value and not displace including one of the better prospects needed for a deal. His bat this year and the second half of last year pretty much has killed any trade value … WAR aside.

Pretty much writing off getting anyone from BALT except maybe Mancini based on their GM’s comments that they see the current core delivering some real success over the next few years. Actually beyond being sellers maybe not buyers with the prospects they have supporting that future vision. Getting the sense their GM may be looking for a longer run success than gambling on overtaking others for the 2022 wild card. Also, historically they are cheap … so not taking on money now. Probably buy time until winter moves.

Reynolds may be different with PITT … but not waiting until PITT decides … probably the last minute and that may be after the other alternative are dealt to others. Preller can’t afford to wait on PITT … and lose out on others.

Laureano may be moving up the line as a “controlled” CF add (upgrade from Grisham) but maybe not the bat the line-up needs.

Sort of funneling back to Contreras, Bell, Benintendi as rentals or Happ controlled in 2023.

Laureano CF + (Bell/Contreras/Mancini) would be the upgrade at CF + the extra BAT we need... 2 players instead of say just one (Reynolds)...

BTW mlbtraderumors talking NYY Beni rumors..saying NYY having separate discussion on Gallo with another team..(wonder of the "other" team is SDP...also wonder if such discussions include NYY taking on Myers $$ (since adding Beni + Myers - Gallo would still keep them under 3rd threshold of $270).. Gallo has Negative value .. instead of DFA him and then being responsible for all his $$ and adding Beni to it why not gamble on getting a healthy Myers for the stretch run..SDP gets Flex to add more than just Gallo at the Deadline and maybe keep Snell at the same time.. SDP could add a prospect like P Contreras (40man) to further assist with the roster crunch... sort of a scratch my back we will scratch yours trade with NYY..

Gallo like (Alfaro/Profar/Mazara/Nick Martinez ) ex Preller player from Ranger days.. might find familiar faces..and SD laid back attitude as appealing as The Sun to Superman .. worst case scenario we have a solid defensive OF with PH off the bench capabilities best case he takes his game up to that .800-.850 OPS level and starts getting on base at his normal .350ish clip with balls leaving the Park every 20 ABs or so

Not our only move..but perhaps one with a 2nd or 3rd move in mind like CF and DH/C or 1B upgrades as well..

Quote from Henry Silvestre on July 10, 2022, 9:30 am

Quote from fenn68 on July 10, 2022, 8:52 am

LAA are out of the playoff race and have a decision considering not a great farm system. Trout big money / big star / long control. Otani big star / for now low money / one year control to be followed by a world record contract / hard to understand his priorities. Rendon older / big contract / big dollars / perpetually injured.

Not sure they can do enough in adds to overcome Houston (or even SEA / TEX) in the next few year … so a rebuild on paper makes sense.

Moving Rendon (and his contract) seems unlikely … just has not been performing.

Moving Trout is unlikely since will have to find a team that could take his massive contract AND give a top return.

Moving Otani … possible … great player / low contract BUT only controlled in 2023 then open bidding for a contract that likely will be the highest of all time. What would a team pay knowing they can’t resign him after 2023?

So, maybe the LAA end up with salary relief but not a lot in the way of prospect … just not both.

Guess … Otani gets dealt … to the METS who really want the big market impact plus they will spend the money as we have seen.

Guess … Trout gets dealt … to the NYY to replace Judge making the incremental cost more acceptable and fits the arms war with the METS.

Guess … Rendon goes nowhere.

Also, not sure where this stands but LAA and Anaheim were back on forth on a new (refurbished) BIG A vs. LAA moving to somewhere else in Orange County … that could actually drain money for LAA in the short run. Money is money.

With the commitments to Machado, Tatis, and hopefully Musgrove … can’t see the Padres playing at those levels. At least I am not guessing they go to the LAD.

 

I have a different take on Othani... i see Wil $20 mil and Snell $13 (then $16;next) and Profar (opts out gets 3/36 $12 per in FA)..and i see VOIT $6mil roughly... so that's like $50-$55 mil per season to have LF Profar/SP Snell/RF Myers and DH VOIT right?... Othani is younger than all of them

So AJP and the Pads ownership sit down and work on a deal that makes sense to #1 acquire Othani and work on an extension for him.. Does Othani accept 10yrs/$480 ($48per) with Opt outs similar to Manny's

In essence $48mil is < $50-$55 for (Profar/Myers/SnellVoit) and Othani still has an 11th yr (2023 at pennies)

If I am Padres and I can swing the Othani trade (as an extension play and thus give LAA a bigger prospect package then i would)

Wethers + Hassell + CJ Abrams + Campusano type of deal for Othani (11yrs/opt out option in 6)

Going foward how could SD afford Othani

Well Othani is 1/5 SP and every day DH

By the time the $48per kicks in 2024... we will have Ruiz in 1/3 OF spots at minimum..Wood at CF 2/3 starting his Rookie year and a Veteran short term (Mazara type in RF).. so 3 OF spots < $10mil

SP wise Gore still cheap/Mus is on 2nd yr at AAV $25 (assumption)/ Yu drops off the books in 2024..and so our rotation looks something like this

Othani/Musgrove/Gore/Clev (2/$24 1+1 type)/[Lawson/Khner or FA short term as 5th]

IF has Machado/Tatis/Rosario/Crone/Hos (3/39)/ Batten.. so another 2 min $$ contributors.. (Kim moved $$)..Merrill would also be ready by then

Also with the many BP arms young/team control at or near MLB level in 22/23 or 24..our BP can be quality/low cost and deep with maybe only 2 guys making >$5 mil per not 4 or 5 like our current roster has..

 

So with a little projection and some imaginations I could see how an Othani deal can be made and can benefit both teams ..

 

Quote from fenn68 on July 10, 2022, 9:31 am

Still confused on the CBT calculation but isn’t adding Benintendi only counted against the NYY for the 1/3 of the season he will be with them (maybe about $3MM)? They are at $262MM … $8MM under the third threshold. They would effectively pay more than $3MM with the 2nd tier penalty.

If that is the case, they could just DFA Gallo and be OK. Not sure any team wants to pick up the remaining $3+MM of Gallo’s contract. If, however, the NYY do need to clear Gallo’s contract … their best bet is to add a legit prospect and expect nothing in return. Sort of a Headley / Mitchell deal to the Padres. Basically a team is buying the prospect for $3MM.

Just hard to see any time wanting Gallo for the final two months of 2022 given his abysmal performance with the NYY UNLESS NYY give an incentive … that would open up more buyers just to get the prospect. Would be hard for a contender to use a roster spot on a massive 2 month gamble.

NYY will have to give prospects to KC for Benintendi (a FA to be) and then give prospects to the buyer of Gallo … for a team securely at the top of the AL that may be a steep price in the future (depends on the prospects of course).

Padres might look at him (I wouldn’t) if he were DFA and they sign him for pro-rated minimum but very unlikely to create a CBT issue for him vs the other potential deadline adds.

Quote from fenn68 on July 10, 2022, 10:00 am

I have no idea what it would take in prospects to get Otani but probably a few of those needed to support the future line-up and likely the ones we don’t want to trade. Also, not sure on the rules about negotiating an extension before consummating a trade. A bit of chicken v egg scenario.

However, Preller was deep into the pursuit of Otani coming out of Japan … although now every team wants him. Maybe unlikely but bet Preller has made the call. Maybe Darvish can convince him to sign … oh wait that is the Cubs.

Otani (and who he signs with after 2023) is a tough call since pretty sure the Otani coming out of Japan is not the Otani now (or is he). Tend to think as most players do … biggest contract / big market but coming out of Japan money was not an issue and clearly wanted the West Coast. Would he leave money on the table to be “comfortable” with the team / city? No idea how well he likes Orange County or would he prefer SF (they should have the money) … then don’t rule out LAD. Then again, isn’t the GM that signed him for LAA now with the METS?

He will be a great follow for the next year +.

Otani - Tatis - Machado - Musgrove about $140MM? $100MM for the remaining 22? Going to need a lot of productive help from the league minimum types.

Fun idea but would not hole my breath.

Quote from Henry Silvestre on July 10, 2022, 10:08 am

Hmmmm ... Taylor Kohlwey playing CF.

.324/.401/.504

 

So with Myers at .582 OPS and Grisham .624 OPS in 2022

How hard will it be to field a better OF in 2023 (from within not even making one move)... Ruiz in LF/Kohwley at CF/Tatis in RF...CJ at SS Kim off the Bench (CJ progression + Tstis full year.. could afford the team to allow 1 or 2 rookies to fight in ST for LF/CF vs Grishman/Azocar... could also trade for an OF  and keep Tatis at SS  and have a epic ST battle for 1 or 2 OF spots with Hassell/Ruiz/Grishman/Azocar/Batten/Kohwley/Rooker/Beaty all fighting for Starting OF spot/s and 4th OF roles in ST 23... Howell (AA) is also on the come... 1 add-on trade or FA signing in the OF os all the 2023 team may need to field a vastly improved OF unit.... something else to consider when trading at the deadline with an eye on a controllable OF/CF..the better the add ..the easier to fill the other positions in the OF from within allowing more $$ towards the retention or add on of SP...

Quote from Henry Silvestre on July 10, 2022, 10:17 am

Hmmmm ... Taylor Kohlwey playing CF.

.324/.401/.504

 

So with Myers at .582 OPS and Grisham .624 OPS in 2022

How hard will it be to field a better OF in 2023 (from within not even making one move)... Ruiz in LF/Kohwley at CF/Tatis in RF...CJ at SS Kim off the Bench (CJ progression + Tstis full year.. could afford the team to allow 1 or 2 rookies to fight in ST for LF/CF vs Grishman/Azocar... could also trade for an OF  and keep Tatis at SS  and have a epic ST battle for 1 or 2 OF spots with Hassell/Ruiz/Grishman/Azocar/Batten/Kohwley/Rooker/Beaty all fighting for Starting OF spot/s and 4th OF roles in ST 23... Howell (AA) is also on the come... 1 add-on trade or FA signing in the OF os all the 2023 team may need to field a vastly improved OF unit.... something else to consider when trading at the deadline with an eye on a controllable OF/CF..the better the add ..the easier to fill the other positions in the OF from within allowing more $$ towards the retention or add on of SP...

Quote from fenn68 on July 10, 2022, 10:00 am

I have no idea what it would take in prospects to get Otani but probably a few of those needed to support the future line-up and likely the ones we don’t want to trade. Also, not sure on the rules about negotiating an extension before consummating a trade. A bit of chicken v egg scenario.

However, Preller was deep into the pursuit of Otani coming out of Japan … although now every team wants him. Maybe unlikely but bet Preller has made the call. Maybe Darvish can convince him to sign … oh wait that is the Cubs.

Otani (and who he signs with after 2023) is a tough call since pretty sure the Otani coming out of Japan is not the Otani now (or is he). Tend to think as most players do … biggest contract / big market but coming out of Japan money was not an issue and clearly wanted the West Coast. Would he leave money on the table to be “comfortable” with the team / city? No idea how well he likes Orange County or would he prefer SF (they should have the money) … then don’t rule out LAD. Then again, isn’t the GM that signed him for LAA now with the METS?

He will be a great follow for the next year +.

Otani - Tatis - Machado - Musgrove about $140MM? $100MM for the remaining 22? Going to need a lot of productive help from the league minimum types.

Fun idea but would not hole my breath.

Really $100 mil for the remaining 21 cause Othani is really 2 /26 by himself in essence allowing a team to carry 27 (figureatively) offcourse...word out of LAA is that Othani wants to WIN and growing frustrated with LAA lack of winning... so coming to SDP electric atmosphere in Aug/Sept could be all he needs to break the bank and be comfortable in the best City in the USA 10/480 ..LFGSD to quote Alfaro...

Quote from fenn68 on July 10, 2022, 11:02 am

Was suggesting post 2023 the four creating a $140MM base leaving relatively little for the remaining 22 ... actually if CBT is the question (have to consider benefits and minor leaguers) the available total is probably closer to $80MM. Could work (TB does pretty well with a full roster at that level) but a tight rope act to get enough low cost players to excel and would probably shut them out of the better FA market going forward.

Could work or SD could be the next LAA with mega stars and squat in results.

 

Quote from MrPadre19 on July 10, 2022, 3:15 pm

First,no way the Angels trade Trout or Ohtani.

Fans would revolt and they would be ridiculed around the league no matter the return.

Second,the Orioles are the perfect example of why teams don’t sell until right at the deadline.

Can probably cross them off the list of sellers as they’ve won 8 in a row and find themselves just 2.5 games behind in the Wild Card race at the moment.