Quote from fenn68 on July 9, 2022, 3:11 pm

Lamet being recalled will elevate the trade possibility discussion ... this is what was needed to establish current value. Hope he pitches lights out.

Assuming he is effective ... and he Padres prime objective is to clear his contract (and a 40 man roster slot) the return likely is a non-roster prospect ...OK with that. Clearing his contract should take care of about half the CBT space needed to be cleared for a Bell or Contreras type ... and that is the big link.

Maybe a question as to the quality of that non-roster prospect but as a buyer in contention that needs RP help ... Lamet could be a good pick-up. First, just picking up about $1.5MM of contact in 2022 ... peanuts for most teams. However, a side benefit is (as they would expect because they are making the deal) he will be good ... they will control him in arbitration in 2023 ($6MMish ... decent for quality) and if bad they can just non-tender him and get out of the whole thing. All that for a non-roster prospect ... should appeal.

---

An alternative scenario, showcase Lamet so he can be included in a deal for either Bell or Contreras and in one transaction reduce the CBT net hit and maybe have the seller eat the remaining Bell/Contreras contact with the inclusion of a good prospect(s).

Quote from fenn68 on July 9, 2022, 3:47 pm

Looking at the standings with just under a half a season to go ... may be some different buyers than we expect.

First in the AL ... NYY and Houston are blowing away their Division and are virtual locks for the two first round byes. However since both are so strong ... both may be looking at the potential future match-up and try to restructure their rosters with that objective.

Then comes the wild card battle with the #1 slot and home field advantage being important but not as important as getting into the playoffs. As it stands TB stands atop (38 losses) but on their neck is BOST (39 losses) then TB (40 losses) and consider they play each other a lot ... coin flip. Now in pursuit ... and the low hanging fruit is at 40 losses are: SEA (42 losses); Cleveland (41 losses); CWS (43 losses); and believe it or not TEX (43 losses). All just a hot streak away from overtaking a current WC team. Actually hard as it is to believe BALT only has 44 losses ... so still a chance although hard to climb over all those other teams.

Now the NL ... LAD are a lock for one of they bye slots. The second one may be in worrisome for the METS who started hot and cooled off while ATL started cool and has really headed up. Mets at 32 losses, Braves at 35 ... 3 games not that hard to flip the positioning. MILW looks like the AL Central winner to be. As of now the WC has ATL (35 losses), SD (36 losses), PHIL (39 losses) ... so 39 losses is the low hanging fruit in the NL with SF (41 losses), STL (42 losses), and even MIA (42 losses) within a winning streak of a playoff slot.

Bottom line there may be more serious buyers out there (and few sellers) going into the trade deadline. Might be good for the Padres as they try to reduce the roster to 40. Might be bad for the Padres with more competition for the few quality pieces available that fit he Padres highest priority needs.

I will be interesting to see the approach of TEX (spent a lot over the winter), SEA (they like to deal), BALT (usually cheap but how long since this close), STL (expected to win but not), and MIA (flying under the radar but with plus pitching). Could be some unexpected move by all them.

Quote from BoosterSD on July 9, 2022, 4:24 pm

I look to MIA to be aggressive. GM Ng is new, she had an active winter, and probably wants to make a splash.

Quote from Henry Silvestre on July 9, 2022, 7:26 pm

Cubs catcher Willson Contreras is on the team's wish list. But considering he plays a premium position -- and the fact that the Padres aren't the only team in search of a catcher -- Contreras won't come cheap. He entered Thursday hitting .274/.392/.498 this season, leading all NL catchers in WAR. The Padres need to decide whether it's worth paying so steep a price for a rental piece, as Contreras is set to become a free agent after this season.

 

It has to be tempting. Because even with Alfaro and Nola on board, Contreras' fit should be seamless. He'd likely relegate Nola to a part-time bench role, and Alfaro could serve as big-time bench bat, while perhaps starting against lefties at DH."

 

Rest of article at https://www.mlb.com/padres/news/padr...deadline-plans

Quote from Henry Silvestre on July 9, 2022, 7:32 pm

Contreras would make Voit expendable... Nola 3rd C hmmm...DH would be Contreras/Alfaro...as would Catcher... Contreras career ABs at Petco are insane...

 

Adding a 2nd bat (+Tatis would insane for our team) who would that 2nd Bat be? REYNOLDS CF or another rental aka Mancini...although Baltimore looking like a Wild Card contender lately... going to be a FUN 4 weeks with roster maneuvering/trades and all...

 

From a CBT $$ perspective..adding Contreras + Reynolds etc...

Would require Voit + Snell and maybe Lamet be traded...

Quote from JasonE135 on July 9, 2022, 7:58 pm

Quote from Henry Silvestre on July 9, 2022, 7:32 pm

Contreras would make Voit expendable... Nola 3rd C hmmm...DH would be Contreras/Alfaro...as would Catcher... Contreras career ABs at Petco are insane...

 

Adding a 2nd bat (+Tatis would insane for our team) who would that 2nd Bat be? REYNOLDS CF or another rental aka Mancini...although Baltimore looking like a Wild Card contender lately... going to be a FUN 4 weeks with roster maneuvering/trades and all...

 

From a CBT $$ perspective..adding Contreras + Reynolds etc...

Would require Voit + Snell and maybe Lamet be traded...

Adding both Contreras and Reynolds would cost us at least Hassell, Campusano, Wood and Abrams along with a lesser prospect or 2 like Merrill, Susana or Gasser.

I see a lesser add. Someone like Benitendi who can be purchased exclusively with lesser prospects.

Quote from fenn68 on July 10, 2022, 5:07 am

We are at the point in the season where team and player splits are worth noting.

Padres not hitting at PETCO (neither are other teams) with only Machado, Mazara, and Hosmer putting up decent numbers. Also, Padres have more issues with RHP (20rh in MLB) as opposed to LHP (13th). Maybe that will (should) play into who is pursued at the deadline. Not sure how they assess who may hit at PETCO but do have Home / Away  splits that could help along with L/R splits.

With that approach Benintendi may be more of a target … consider:

Benintendi: .329 AWAY / .340 v RHP

Bell: .307 AWAY / .317 v RHP

Contreras: .227 AWAY / .252 v RHP

Reynolds: .282 AWAY / .256 v RHP

PETCO should lower all their AWAY averages but the odds are better in a 2 month window that Benintendi / Bell are more productive

Quote from Henry Silvestre on July 10, 2022, 5:26 am

1. Or we could look at Contreras Career Splits at Petco

Over 55 PA's

341

.473

.614

1.086

 

2022

700

.786

1.000

1.786

Quote from fenn68 on July 10, 2022, 5:27 am

As I was looking at the Home/Away splits and the L/R splits … the need for some more platooning (or changes) become apparent.

At SS L/R spits: Kim (291/207), Abrams (080/253) … suggest a platoon and clearly the need for Tatis to return

Mazara is hitting both at HOME and AWAY plus hitting RHP so is solidifying his role but does not play vs LHP … career suggest he does not hit LHP … so, Myers may provide that platoon upgrade.

Grisham on the other hand is not hitting Home or Away … LHP or RHP … a total washout. Problem for a contender that has offense issues.

Surprisingly Hosmer has been pretty consistently good (not great but good) home and away and vs RHP and (surprising given the reputation) LHP.

Voit on the other hand is a question. Would expect him to mash LHP but is hitting a puny 194/333/264 with 0 HR and 32K in 72AB, He is also sub-.200 at PETCO. On the other hand v RHP 243/316/479 with 10 HR in 169 AB. Being a DH, Padres may have some more flexibility in inserting someone who hits better at PETCO and v LHP … just not sure who.