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Trades June/July/Deadline
#1001 · August 1, 2022, 2:36 pm
Quote from Henry Silvestre on August 1, 2022, 1:59 pmQuote from fenn68 on August 1, 2022, 1:50 pmQuote from Henry Silvestre on August 1, 2022, 1:28 pmMontas + Trivino to NYY
Holy caca!
NYY are building from strength to battle Houston and either NYM or LAD in the World Series. Taking Montas out of the mix has the ripple effect on STL then SD.
Now that Montas is out to STL … either they really pivot to Rodon from SF or go all in on Soto (and most think they can top SD if the add the top prospect to the deal and not require a money offset). Might push LAD to move on Soto to cut out NL competition from NYM, STL, and SD initially and a potential WS opponent in NYY. LAD has the prospects and is not worried about the money.
Not the ideal scenario for Preller in his pursuit for Soto. Add that LAA has clearly pulled Otani from any trade discussions, WASH has even a stronger position given Soto is the bat available and they don’t need to deal him. Rizzo can drag this out to the end pushing for SD, STL, LAD (and maybe the NYM) every last quality prospect in each’s system.
Beginning to feel that the winner of the Soto derby (if he is actually dealt) will be the loser in the long run.
Still think Bell + Contreras + Happ for pennies vs Soto...is a Big Win for 2022 for us.
For same prospect capital Sean Murphy + Reynolds + Happ would give us a deeper lineup and a better Team for the next couple seasons ..while allowing us to keep the elite SP level...remember we get Tatis back.. who (when healthy) is >Soto
Don't get me wrong Soto would be awesome .. but unless Seidler has no budget.. more difficult to maneuver..
What will make either of those options more difficult for Preller is trying to negotiate the offsetting CBT impact … I have real doubts that will happen. On an annual AAV level:
Soto … $17.1 MM
Bell … $10MM; Contreras … $9.6MM; Happ … $6.9MM = total $26.5MM. Padres can’t get enough off the books almost under any scenario but if they did it would cost all (and maybe more) the prospect that would have been saved for a Soto trade.
Have to kick Bell out of the equation considering Hosmer, Myers, and Voit are around. That makes the Soto money equal to Happ/Contreras but Soto would come at a much higher prospect price (but for a lot more control and production).
As for the money offset … not sure how the Padres can swing that to the level of $17MM (annual). Not sure WASH is interested in taking a bad contract when they could get a deal as good prospect wise for other teams. Cubs however may be more flexible to increase the “lesser” prospect level than the Soto offer and if the Padres are willing to move the long list of prospects they may use some to get the Cubs to take a couple of “bad” contracts … Myers + Voit would do it … and from the Cubs perspective Myers is gone via FA and, if they wanted the could non-tender Voit in the off season.
Going through all that … the “easiest” trade may be for Happ and Robertson for a prospect array and Myers to even out the money. Can debate the prospect level.
#1002 · August 1, 2022, 2:45 pm
Quote from BoosterSD on August 1, 2022, 1:38 pmQuote from WindsorUK on August 1, 2022, 1:23 pmNot sure this trade moves the needle in the standings.......
Clearing 40 man spots probably the best thing in the deal.
Although, it does give Clevinger a competitor in " worst hair" in the clubhouse award
In the scheme of things, both guys have about the same save opportunities, however Rogers has blown 5 more than Hader. Thats 5 more wins right there, and would do a lot in the WC standings.
Pitching wise, Hader is a fastball guy, that can blow it by the batter. Rogers is a slider guy, and needs the batter to offer and miss. A lot more security in the moving fastball of Hader, especially when statcast was basically showing that Rogers had lost a lot of movement on that slider. And straight sliders go a long way in the opposite direction they came.
Thanks for the info Booster.
I hope you're right....and I'll certainly be rooting for Hader's return to dominance.
#1003 · August 1, 2022, 2:45 pm
Quote from BoosterSD on August 1, 2022, 1:43 pmQuote from brent wolff on August 1, 2022, 1:34 pmIs this enough to land Soto?
- Young SS: either Abrams or Merrill (probably Abrams)
- Young OF: either Wood or Hassell (probably Wood)
- Young Major League LHSP: either Gore or Morejon
- Young International Signee Lottery Ticket: either SS Victor Acosta or Yendry Rojas
- Upper Level Minor League SP: either E. Contreras or R. Lawson
Hopefully we don't have to add a 6th prospect, like OF Sam Zavala or Josh Mears. What do you guys think? Is that enough? Is that an overpay on the Padres part? Thanks in advance for any replies.
From what I have read, it seems to be Abrams, Hassell, Gore, Morejon, Zavala, and Mears was the package. IMO, the only one that hurts is possibly Gore, if he can stay healthy and make it through an entire season. Which in all honesty, it would be 2025 before you could count on 170+ IP from Gore or even Morejon. So go for it, right?
Supposedly this is the deal that is on the table. The Nats are holding out for one more major prospect in addition. They are holding out for James Wood, yet the Padres already have the top offer for Soto. I don't see us giving up Wood.
#1004 · August 1, 2022, 2:54 pm
No way you give up Wood, with all the other players involved.
If they're desperate for him, take back Hassell and Morejon.
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#1005 · August 1, 2022, 3:01 pm
Quote from WindsorUK on August 1, 2022, 2:54 pmNo way you give up Wood, with all the other players involved.
If they're desperate for him, take back Hassell and Morejon.
Exactly! They are trying to get Preller to bid against himself. Stay strong and wait for tomorrow Preller! If they don't take the current offer just walk away. The Nats are hoping some GM gets nervous at the last minute and overpays. Don't be that GM.
#1006 · August 1, 2022, 3:41 pm
According to the GM and Boras playbook ... a hitherto "mystery team" has emerged at the last moment into the mix of STL, SD, and LAD for Soto ... none other than our buddies SF (per Morosi as I recall).
SF is legit enough from a need standpoint to want to be in the mix ... they are not that far out of a playoff slot ... they have money ... thye need a new star ... they would like to make sure LAD/SD/STL don't end up with Soto hindering SF playoff chances. Offsetting that is hard to see them having the prospect package.
Valid or not ... this "leak" might be used to push the price up on Soto (think the Scherzer game plan last year) and create some justification to go another round of demands from all the bidders ... dragging the decision out until ?????? Certainly STL/SD in a tight race for the wild card don't want SF stronger and maybe get to a position to dump either one.
I guess I really don't like these games and if I were a GM I would just cap my offer (make it final with the time fixed to withdraw) or just pull the offer and push for alternatives.
#1007 · August 1, 2022, 3:45 pm
Astros To Acquire Christian Vazquez
Looks like an arms race between the two best AL teams ... NYY and HOU.
Guess this confirms BOST as a seller.
#1008 · August 1, 2022, 3:46 pm
#1009 · August 1, 2022, 3:49 pm
Contreras just got cheaper .
SF would have to lead with Logan Webb to sniff Soto. They have next to zero spec capital and even if Nats Believed in Bard.. they don't need C at all in DC
#1010 · August 1, 2022, 3:55 pm
I keep thinking if the Nationals wanted Merrill and Wood that much, why didn’t they just draft them last year. They literally drafted a HS SS in the first round and a HS OF in the second round.