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Trade ideas
#791 · December 1, 2019, 7:13 pm
Call me crazy but the more I study Contreras the more appealing he is-- Is he a luxury? I dont think so, I think he can provide us with the BIGGEST IMPROVEMENT that we could get at any position -- To be exact about +.200 OPS from Hedges-- Remember we went down to the wire for JTR.. and Contreras 2017-2019 is 2ND only to JTR in WAR in all of baseball. He is like the "child" that Mejia and Hedges would have-- I've seen many boards linking us to the Cubs (also Whitesox but they got Grandal already-- so they are out, LAA also but Cubs appearantely are looking for young controlable P and a younger C replacement to compete/backup) I know Cubs love Lamet... But would a Joey + Mejia + Morejon package get it done? Cubs would have to think long and Hard about that proposal-- Pads could then flip Hedges to LAA or other C needy team and have Torrens/Allen battle for backup duty-- I guess keeping Hedges around for 1 more year (continuity, especially with DB to Rothchild transition) wouldnt hurt either making one of Allen/Torrens trade bait as well... Contreras .350 OBP and solid power/hit and speed tools make him an offensive force, he also plays a little LF/RF/1B/DH.. Contreras (100 games C/5 LF/5 1B/8 DH would be a perfect blend of rest and production)... Cant imagine a team needy of a C toping that package .. I think Mejia can be Contreras like with the bat, I just dont think he can get there defensively in the next 2-3 yrs (our WINDOW opens Now) -- so why not get a 2X All Star in the prime of his career, to be the STUD backstop for the next 3 yrs as Campusano refines his skills in AA in 2020, becomes the backup in 2021 and 2022 and takes over in 2023...
Pending other moves Contreras bats 4th-5th or 6th .. his plus speed for the position and OBP could also see him in the #2 hole..
#792 · December 1, 2019, 7:16 pm
Quote from onlypads on December 1, 2019, 6:06 pmI am a little surprised AJP and the Indians didn't work out a blockbuster with Urias, top prospect + ML players for Lindor + Kluber.
As stated before, I do like the Brew trade and agree that it is sneaky good. Not sure if Lindor + Tatis is redundant and would generate diminishing returns, but sure sounds sexy. Kluber basically replaces Davies.
I think a trade for Lindor would have been like Patino + Urias + Campusano + Morejon-- and likely More-- add Kubler to that and well we aint trading 7 prospects for 1yr of Kubler and 2 of Lindor
#793 · December 1, 2019, 7:24 pm
Lol no. I tend to think Lindor will fetch Lux and a lottery ticket best case scenario. Lindor could have been had for Patino and Urias. Not advocating it though.
That said, you are selling me on Contreras the more I think about it.
#794 · December 1, 2019, 7:32 pm
Quote from Henry Silvestre on December 1, 2019, 7:13 pmCall me crazy but the more I study Contreras the more appealing he is-- Is he a luxury?
You asked for it, you are crazy. Yes, if we had unlimited money he would be a luxury, but really he is not even a necessity. First of all, your package is way light for what CHC will want. The conversation will start and end with Patino. Second, MONEY!!!! Part of the reason Contreras is possibly available, is money. He is going into his first year of arbitration. MLBTR projects him to be at $4.5M and that will go up. Third, his BA and SLG percentage go way down when away from Wrigley. So, why would you want to give up a player that you said yourself is basically Contreras with the bat already, for 8 times the salary? Plus you are going to have to probably include one of our top 5 prospects and 2 or 3 other prospects.
#795 · December 1, 2019, 7:48 pm
Quote from BoosterSD on December 1, 2019, 7:32 pmQuote from Henry Silvestre on December 1, 2019, 7:13 pmCall me crazy but the more I study Contreras the more appealing he is-- Is he a luxury?
You asked for it, you are crazy. Yes, if we had unlimited money he would be a luxury, but really he is not even a necessity. First of all, your package is way light for what CHC will want. The conversation will start and end with Patino. Second, MONEY!!!! Part of the reason Contreras is possibly available, is money. He is going into his first year of arbitration. MLBTR projects him to be at $4.5M and that will go up. Third, his BA and SLG percentage go way down when away from Wrigley. So, why would you want to give up a player that you said yourself is basically Contreras with the bat already, for 8 times the salary? Plus you are going to have to probably include one of our top 5 prospects and 2 or 3 other prospects.
Because he is proven. Mejia is not. First of all we are working on the assumption that CHC is okay not operating / retaining guranteed talent. Second of all, as you stated, they are likely seeking salary relief. Mejia affords salary relief and is a legitimate Contreras comp. I agree if I am giving up Patino, not worth it.
If I must give up Lucc / Cal + Mejia + Joey Cantillo (I mean I would rather work in an Owen Miller type) I do it. CHC gets ML cheap, controllable players with some upside and some specs. From our side, it is a cost (albeit from surplus and redundancy) and may not even be worth it to us if we have faith in M, but we are absolutely maximizing the C position in our window and dramatically improving our team. Remember, Mejia has a propensity to chase hard. One more issue resolved. Then we focus ALL resources on OF.
#796 · December 1, 2019, 8:22 pm
Or we could use that same package, minus Mejia, to get rid of Myers entire contract. Then we can use that money +$15 million per year to sign Rendon and really maximize our 3B. It makes the same amount of sense. We could blow all of our resources getting Lindor, but why bother when we have Tatis? We have several positions that truly need help. Let's use our resources there, for things we NEED, rather than using them on positions that are already taken care of. Didn't we just trade a major piece to improve our catching situation? We picked up a guy named Mejia didn't we? Best catching prospect in the game? How quickly people forget.
#797 · December 1, 2019, 8:23 pm
Quote from onlypads on December 1, 2019, 7:48 pmBecause he is proven. Mejia is not. First of all we are working on the assumption that CHC is okay not operating / retaining guranteed talent. Second of all, as you stated, they are likely seeking salary relief. Mejia affords salary relief and is a legitimate Contreras comp. I agree if I am giving up Patino, not worth it.
If I must give up Lucc / Cal + Mejia + Joey Cantillo (I mean I would rather work in an Owen Miller type) I do it. CHC gets ML cheap, controllable players with some upside and some specs. From our side, it is a cost (albeit from surplus and redundancy) and may not even be worth it to us if we have faith in M, but we are absolutely maximizing the C position in our window and dramatically improving our team. Remember, Mejia has a propensity to chase hard. One more issue resolved. Then we focus ALL resources on OF.
Contreras - away from Wrigley Field - .255 BA, .346 OBP, & .479 SLG.
Mejia - away from Petco - .287 BA, .344 OBP, & .487 SLG. And this was basically his rookie season.
There are still two issues with trading for Contreras. His offense is average away from CHC. And costing us money and prospects. This should be a last item to take care of after OF, OF, 2B, and TOR. This is just wasting resources on a player that is not that much of an improvement over what we have now at league minimum. Figure we still have two more years of Mejia at league minimum and one arb year that will equal the control time of Contreras. Mejia will probably make about $3M for those three years combined, and Contreras $4.5M for 2020 alone. Plus another what, $15M± for 2021 and 2022. Just doesnt make good business sense to me guys.
#798 · December 1, 2019, 9:07 pm
Sure. Like I said, it may not be worth it if we believe in Mejia. I think it is naive to think that clubs won't generate a book on Mejia's swing / tendencies. I personally oscillate on this topic and it may be a little more nuanced than simply doubling down on Mejia.
The org hasn't even determined him the starter over Hedges. Moreover, across the MLB, I believe GMs, in their professional opinion, would hold Contreras in much higher regard than Hedges or Mejia.
At the end of the day, a gamble on Mejia probably makes the most sense. However, there is a colorable argument for certainty when I believe our window -- which may be thinner than we hope -- arrives. Remember, in my proposed trade we are giving up a mid level spec, a ML arm that likely won't be in our contending rotation, and Contreras comp. It is true though, in a perfect world where Mejia's upside is realized, Contreras may actually be a downgrade (control, cost, and production).
I think there is a good point in there though. If we are so quick to believe in 2B being held down by Edwards/ Abrams /Arias, it seems unfair to then hold Mejia in a lesser regard when he did produce for a part of the season. Thus, there is greater indicators of his success than even our talented 2B prospects waiting in the wings.
In all scenarios, I 100% prioritize outfield upgrades.
#799 · December 1, 2019, 9:11 pm
Quote from JasonE135 on December 1, 2019, 8:22 pmOr we could use that same package, minus Mejia, to get rid of Myers entire contract. Then we can use that money +$15 million per year to sign Rendon and really maximize our 3B. It makes the same amount of sense. We could blow all of our resources getting Lindor, but why bother when we have Tatis? We have several positions that truly need help. Let's use our resources there, for things we NEED, rather than using them on positions that are already taken care of. Didn't we just trade a major piece to improve our catching situation? We picked up a guy named Mejia didn't we? Best catching prospect in the game? How quickly people forget.
Do you honestly believe GMs believe him to be the best catching prospect / young ML C in the league?
I am torn on this and honestly probably think you guys are right. I am not trying to criticize Mejia. I actually really like him. At first I dismissed the idea of Contreras outright, but dang, there might be something to certainty and proven high end performance for what I think is a reasonable price.
#800 · December 2, 2019, 6:03 am
Quote from onlypads on December 1, 2019, 9:11 pmQuote from JasonE135 on December 1, 2019, 8:22 pmOr we could use that same package, minus Mejia, to get rid of Myers entire contract. Then we can use that money +$15 million per year to sign Rendon and really maximize our 3B. It makes the same amount of sense. We could blow all of our resources getting Lindor, but why bother when we have Tatis? We have several positions that truly need help. Let's use our resources there, for things we NEED, rather than using them on positions that are already taken care of. Didn't we just trade a major piece to improve our catching situation? We picked up a guy named Mejia didn't we? Best catching prospect in the game? How quickly people forget.
Do you honestly believe GMs believe him to be the best catching prospect / young ML C in the league?
I am torn on this and honestly probably think you guys are right. I am not trying to criticize Mejia. I actually really like him. At first I dismissed the idea of Contreras outright, but dang, there might be something to certainty and proven high end performance for what I think is a reasonable price.
Yes offensively Mejia vs Contreras could be a wash.. But Defensively Contreras is very good (except for framing 48.2%) where he is smack in between Mejia and MLB leader Hedges and I mean smack in the middle of those 2.. So the big difference in D and framing between Mejia and Contreras is the Big reason why I would make this trade.. Cubs are said to be looking for young controllable mlb arms in their deals.. Why Joey is tge right fit and Morejon the long play here.. We didnt go Patino on the better JTR last off season ..we ain't going Patino on the lesser Contreras this off-season.. Still dont think any contender can offer MLB young controllable pitching.. And rebuilding teams ain't going after Contreras . So if Cubbies indeed moving Contreras (and AJP wants him) we are kind of in the drivers seat