Quote from fenn68 on November 30, 2019, 9:10 am

Quote from Henry Silvestre on November 30, 2019, 8:28 am

Quote from onlypads on November 30, 2019, 7:24 am

Quote from BoosterSD on November 30, 2019, 7:18 am

Quote from onlypads on November 30, 2019, 7:11 am

What about Margot, Hedges, and Lucchesi/Cal for Clint Frazier and Jonathan Loiasiga? Upside for us.  Fill holes for them on the cheap (defensive catcher, ML SP, and CF) so that they can pursue TOR.  I don't believe those three players help us contend.  I think Clint and Jonathan make us better now and in the future, clears money, and frees up roster spots.

Dont know enough about the pitcher, but not really that enthused about Frazier. He seems like Renfroe that cant field as well as Renfroe. Plus it would only save SD about $4.4M. I  think those players can better used either in house or for getting someone better than Frazier.

You certainly could be right.  We are giving up a lot; I don't love the trade I proposed.  However, Frazier is a legit ML bat and Jonathan has filthy stuff and has TOR upside IMHO.  I also don't believe we are getting ML talent for our under-performing ML players (as a general principle / unless in unique acquiring team payroll scenarios)

I think Margot has a lot of value tbh.. Also Hedges.. But say AJP wanted Contreras from Cubs.. A Hedges + Joey + Morejon package would be about right with maybe a lotto ticket low A ball spec coming with Contreras to us...

I suspect CHI would want more. Contreras is a top flight catcher who can hit ... only 27 ... and under really cheap control for 3 years. Should be in great demand. Margot fits their needs as does more pitching. Not sure Hedges floats their boat since they seem OK with Caratini starting and have a top prospect on the come in AA.

I am having some trouble figuring out the Cubs 2020 game plan. If they still want to contend (and clearly they can in the NL Central) trading a top catcher (low cost long control) makes little sense unless it is for equal (or better) 2020 impact. Similar questions surround the rumors about dealing Bryant because he is unlikely to sign an extension (with some question whether 2020 or 2021 is his last control year .. bet 2021), at least that clears some money if ownership is clamping down on payroll. Not the issue with Contreras.

Quote from BoosterSD on November 30, 2019, 9:16 am

From what I have heard, the reason CHC may be looking into trading some of the "core" players is both money and their is possibly a fracture between players in the clubhouse. So, it may be more of a chemistry than talent or money thing for CHC this offseason. But if that is the case, then do we really need someone coming into our clubhouse that is not going to fit in. I mean, it seems like this is easily going to become Tatis clubhouse soon, and do we need a Bryant, Contreras, or other coming in and rocking the boat. I think I just shy away from CHC players for this season.

Quote from fenn68 on November 30, 2019, 9:23 am

Quote from onlypads on November 30, 2019, 9:09 am

Quote from fenn68 on November 30, 2019, 8:41 am

The following is a bit convoluted but possible situation that could benefit the Padres via trade.

First, consider the plight of the king of the AL West ... Houston. Start with the known. FA after 2020 includes their entire OF of Brantley, Springer, Reddick, Marisnick. The also 1B Gurriel and RP Peacock. That is a lot of critical talent and expensive talent (about $70MM in 2020). Note that Correa is a FA after 2021. Catcher is already a weakness. Farm system is not filled with elite bats. That is already a set-up for the demise of Houston in 2021.

Second, consider the unknown (but potentially impactful) ... the consequences of any penalties derived from the cheating scandal. Penalties could include suspensions of the GM, manager .... loss of draft picks / international signing money ... fines (to be sure) ... etc

Put those two issues together and will that inhibit ownership from spending to re-sign their big FA (or other FA) and will it make quality FA less interested in signing on with Houston .. a team on the decline? Will other teams look like better options?

How does that help the Padres? Will the potential venerability of Houston motivate LAA, OAK, and even Texas to be more aggressive in building a contender for 2022-21 and become an eager trade partner for some Padre "excess". Would Houston be more amenable to adding (either now for one last hurrah or next winter to fill in the blanks) some of the Padres' "excess". In both cases might snare some quality prospects for "excess".

The sharks may be circling as they smell Houston's blood.

 

Springer situation is interesting to me.  Cheaper than Mookie, maybe can extend...

Playoff stud and proven player.  If we we were to invest in one more positional player, he would be high on my list.

From what I can tell, Springer is #1 on Houston's wish list for an extension ... but ... Springer is more interested in testing FA (sort of the same view as Betts, Lindor, and most super stars) near the end of their contract.

Just a guess but Houston may focus on a last hurrah run for the World Series in 2020 then move into some form of rebuild mode. Besides the major FA issues after 2020/2021 .... Verlander and Greinke are just flat out old and getting older ... not sure when they fall off and very unlike they get resigned when their contracts expire after 2021 when they are 38 and have no team around them.

Quote from onlypads on November 30, 2019, 9:25 am

Quote from BoosterSD on November 30, 2019, 9:16 am

From what I have heard, the reason CHC may be looking into trading some of the "core" players is both money and their is possibly a fracture between players in the clubhouse. So, it may be more of a chemistry than talent or money thing for CHC this offseason. But if that is the case, then do we really need someone coming into our clubhouse that is not going to fit in. I mean, it seems like this is easily going to become Tatis clubhouse soon, and do we need a Bryant, Contreras, or other coming in and rocking the boat. I think I just shy away from CHC players for this season.

I think I had heard a few ppl say that the trade talk was intended to motivate players / drum up some intensity.  Idk could have misheard.  Either way, agreed, CHC talk is perplexing given their window.  Contreras seems like an ideal "keep."

Quote from fenn68 on November 30, 2019, 9:30 am

Quote from BoosterSD on November 30, 2019, 9:16 am

From what I have heard, the reason CHC may be looking into trading some of the "core" players is both money and their is possibly a fracture between players in the clubhouse. So, it may be more of a chemistry than talent or money thing for CHC this offseason. But if that is the case, then do we really need someone coming into our clubhouse that is not going to fit in. I mean, it seems like this is easily going to become Tatis clubhouse soon, and do we need a Bryant, Contreras, or other coming in and rocking the boat. I think I just shy away from CHC players for this season.

Good point and agree. The tricky kind of issue that a "buying" team has to do some deep diligence with "unnamed sources" to get a real evaluation of a players healthy or unhealthy personality impact a team.

Padres staying out of the game for those two is fine with me.

Quote from Henry Silvestre on November 30, 2019, 9:35 am

Quote from onlypads on November 30, 2019, 9:09 am

Quote from fenn68 on November 30, 2019, 8:41 am

The following is a bit convoluted but possible situation that could benefit the Padres via trade.

First, consider the plight of the king of the AL West ... Houston. Start with the known. FA after 2020 includes their entire OF of Brantley, Springer, Reddick, Marisnick. The also 1B Gurriel and RP Peacock. That is a lot of critical talent and expensive talent (about $70MM in 2020). Note that Correa is a FA after 2021. Catcher is already a weakness. Farm system is not filled with elite bats. That is already a set-up for the demise of Houston in 2021.

Second, consider the unknown (but potentially impactful) ... the consequences of any penalties derived from the cheating scandal. Penalties could include suspensions of the GM, manager .... loss of draft picks / international signing money ... fines (to be sure) ... etc

Put those two issues together and will that inhibit ownership from spending to re-sign their big FA (or other FA) and will it make quality FA less interested in signing on with Houston .. a team on the decline? Will other teams look like better options?

How does that help the Padres? Will the potential venerability of Houston motivate LAA, OAK, and even Texas to be more aggressive in building a contender for 2022-21 and become an eager trade partner for some Padre "excess". Would Houston be more amenable to adding (either now for one last hurrah or next winter to fill in the blanks) some of the Padres' "excess". In both cases might snare some quality prospects for "excess".

The sharks may be circling as they smell Houston's blood.

 

Springer situation is interesting to me.  Cheaper than Mookie, maybe can extend...

Playoff stud and proven player.  If we we were to invest in one more positional player, he would be high on my list.

I think we have TWO more position players coming in, maybe 3... And 1 more SP... How where, from whom yet to be determined..

Quote from Randy Manese on November 30, 2019, 9:36 am

For sure Houston is notorious and a bit slimy - they openly tanked and asked their fans to endure multiple 100 loss seasons to get better draft picks.  Sign-stealing, signing Osuna and comments made by their top officials has cast them in a negative light and certainly not "America's team".

Beyond Tucker and Alvarez, who are already on the team, their only top prospect is Whitley, who was supposed to be the best SP prospect in the minors but has yet to show he's going to be better than Gore or Patino, for that matter, in my opinion.  They do get McCullers back and are counting on Urquidy to round out the rotation with the aging vets Verlander and Greinke, 37 and 36 years old respectively in 2020.  If Verlander and Greinke hold up, probably good for at least one or two more years but an area of concern.

For position players, you highlight the problem with Gurriel already 35 years of age.  Probably try to get Alvarez to move to 1st and hope Tucker develops.  Have to re-sign Correa to pair with Bregman and hope Altuve continues to star as he moves into his 30's.  Since both Alvarez and Tucker hit from the left side, Springer is probably the OF they will target to re-sign.  Catching is bad.  Overall, if money becomes tight, they will have to make some moves but they have less trade capital to do it with and probably face other impediments from MLB.

I agree that LAA and Tex will be in the hunt to press them but Oak is a wild-card.  Not sure what you had in mind to take advantage of the deep Padre farm system, but we could move some young arms and catching and INF depth if someone of greater value interests us.  Which players are you targeting or have interest in?

 

 

Quote from fenn68 on November 30, 2019, 9:42 am

Conundrum .... although I agree that Margot has more trade value than we may think in a league that needs some decent CF (and he is defensively) ... is it too much a risk for the Padres to trade him with only Grisham to handle CF?

Sure they traded for Grisham but we are looking at a player who has not proven his ML CF defensive chops and only has about a year of quality MiL hitting. Very short ML run and was good in Miller Park and poor AWAY.

IF Grisham struggles ... and no Margot ... then what? Trammell is as much as a gamble offensively having only AA time ... Gettys will hit less than Hedges ... Myers?

IF the Padres want to improve in 2019, think they have to keep Margot to hedge risk ... unless they trade for Marte.

Quote from fenn68 on November 30, 2019, 9:43 am

Quote from Henry Silvestre on November 30, 2019, 9:35 am

Quote from onlypads on November 30, 2019, 9:09 am

Quote from fenn68 on November 30, 2019, 8:41 am

The following is a bit convoluted but possible situation that could benefit the Padres via trade.

First, consider the plight of the king of the AL West ... Houston. Start with the known. FA after 2020 includes their entire OF of Brantley, Springer, Reddick, Marisnick. The also 1B Gurriel and RP Peacock. That is a lot of critical talent and expensive talent (about $70MM in 2020). Note that Correa is a FA after 2021. Catcher is already a weakness. Farm system is not filled with elite bats. That is already a set-up for the demise of Houston in 2021.

Second, consider the unknown (but potentially impactful) ... the consequences of any penalties derived from the cheating scandal. Penalties could include suspensions of the GM, manager .... loss of draft picks / international signing money ... fines (to be sure) ... etc

Put those two issues together and will that inhibit ownership from spending to re-sign their big FA (or other FA) and will it make quality FA less interested in signing on with Houston .. a team on the decline? Will other teams look like better options?

How does that help the Padres? Will the potential venerability of Houston motivate LAA, OAK, and even Texas to be more aggressive in building a contender for 2022-21 and become an eager trade partner for some Padre "excess". Would Houston be more amenable to adding (either now for one last hurrah or next winter to fill in the blanks) some of the Padres' "excess". In both cases might snare some quality prospects for "excess".

The sharks may be circling as they smell Houston's blood.

 

Springer situation is interesting to me.  Cheaper than Mookie, maybe can extend...

Playoff stud and proven player.  If we we were to invest in one more positional player, he would be high on my list.

I think we have TWO more position players coming in, maybe 3... And 1 more SP... How where, from whom yet to be determined..

I agree.