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#471 · November 16, 2019, 6:47 am
Quote from Henry Silvestre on November 16, 2019, 4:04 amQuote from fenn68 on November 16, 2019, 1:43 amStill in November where all the sellers are setting the bar high or still saying player X is not on the market.
As FA sign .... other teams make trades ..... the bar (for many) will drop as the number of buyers shrink. Especially for teams that have a need ... reduce payroll ... move an asset before hitting FA ... build some prospects. Teams that are not under that pressure may just hold (sort of like the METS with Syndergaard last summer).
Both buyers and sellers know this so some strategy on how long to wait in negotiations before striking a deal plus have a back-up plan if the two teams can’t reach a mutual “value” point. Some skill in knowing the GM on the other side of the table as to when he is digging in or still has room for movement.
Boston should be “interesting” given their stated objective to get under the luxury threshold. Betts, Martinez, Sale, Price, Bradley all come with high contract burdens that most teams will not absorb ... let alone give tip notch talent (prospects) in return. Boston does not achieve its objective if it eats some of the contract which in turn would force them to move other pieces.
Betts for 1 year at $28MM may be worth the pay but finding a team with that money to spend on a RF cuts out most of the buyers. Martinez has a very limited market as a DH (sort of why he accepted the QO). Bradley is just way over paid at $11MM. Price is way way overpaid for 3 year given average performance. Sale carries some injury inconsistency worries for a major contract. Not sure how BOSTON can get any quality in return for any of them if they need to move the contracts ... especially if the buyer know this and sense weakness.
JDM didn't accept rhe QO ..he has years and a ton of millions OPTION left.. Which he clearly kept and didn't opt out
Mis-stated on the QO v the not opting out ... still the same issue for Boston he is back and they have to pay him and it does suggest his side did not think there was a market for him to do better which in turn will make it hard for Boston to trade him (and his full contract) let alone get much of a return.
#472 · November 16, 2019, 8:30 am
Quote from JasonE135 on November 15, 2019, 9:27 pmThis doesn't seem to be the year to be making trades. The economics of trades have changed. Prospects are worth more than ever, but teams with players to trade are still expecting multiple absolute premium prospects for anyone. We already knew about the Mets wanting Gore++ for Syndergaard. For Lindor the Indians want even more. Betts with only 1 year of control the Sox are expecting practically an entire minor league system for, and a top one at that. Now the Rockies are saying that it is going to take an established major league pitcher and multiple significant prospects to get Jon FREAKING Gray? Is every GM in baseball insane, or do they all have a condition that forces them to spew lies every time they flap their lips?
Jason, I notice you keep saying this and I don’t really understand why? A media report on the Rockies asking price for 27 year old starter means this isn’t a year for trades? Teams often hold off dealing until the FA market becomes more clear. NY media and fans were the ones mentioning Gore in deals involving Thor. According to Dennis Lin the Padres were reluctant include Urias in the package deal. The fact of the matter is people like us and even the media don’t know the specifics of trade talks between GMs. Speculation on asking price doesn’t mean “this isn’t a year for trades”. I fully expect AJP to pull off 3 or 4 trades this offseason.
Outside the tremendous FA starting pitching this FA class doesn’t align well with the Padres needs. I’d pass on dishing out big money and years to a Madbum, Ryu, Gibson type when you have the likes of Gore, Patino on the way. I’d prefer to just roll with Paddack, Lamet, Richards, Joey and Cal in 2020.
#473 · November 16, 2019, 5:42 pm
I am talking about the return that teams are demanding. It seems every team is saying they expect to get "multiple top prospects" in return for any major leaguer of any quality. Many of them want young, controllable major league players too.
It seems every short term major leaguer is going to free agency now. Very few are signing extensions. When you trade for a player with 1 or 2 years of control, that's all you get is 1 or 2 years. Then you have to bid against every other team in mlb in free agency if you want to retain him.
Look at recent trades of prospects for established major leaguers:
Anthony Rizzo for Andrew Cashner
Eloy Jimenez and Dylan Cease for Jose Quintana
Lucas Giolito +2 others for Adam Eaton
Yon Moncada, Michael Kopech +2 others for Chris Sale
Austin Meadows and Tyler Glasnow for Chris Archer
Every one of those teams that traded prospects would do anything to undo those trades now. The two trades with the +2 show that not every prospect has to turn out for it to be a robbery. Every team is demanding multiple premium prospects like the ones above to make a trade for an even slightly plus major league talent. If we can get a team to accept prospects outside of our top 7 fine, let's do it. It just seems that any team with something to sell is still expecting the above type of return for their players. I am SURE that we don't want the Padres to be on any list like this again. At least on the negative side.
I believe that teams are going to continue to demand major prospect returns for their players. I don't think they are going to get what they want. Therefore I expect the trade market to be much slower than everyone else expects it to be.
#474 · November 16, 2019, 6:50 pm
“Look at recent trades of prospects for established major leaguers:
Anthony Rizzo for Andrew Cashner
Eloy Jimenez and Dylan Cease for Jose Quintana
Lucas Giolito +2 others for Adam Eaton
Yon Moncada, Michael Kopech +2 others for Chris Sale
Austin Meadows and Tyler Glasnow for Chris Archer”
That’s a pretty random list you assembled. The Rizzo/Cashner deal was almost 8 years ago. I wouldn’t call that deal recent. I’m pretty sure Boston is happy with the title they won with Sale. He was an ace at the time of the deal. Eaton was a very important player on the Nats who just won a title. Archer was considered an ace and that trade now looks like a historical fleecing. If the Padres make that list like Nats and Sox? Sure I’m fine with trading a future stud for a player that can help bring a title to San Diego.
#475 · November 16, 2019, 7:19 pm
The Sox were the only team who were conceivably 1 player away at the time of the trade. We certainly are not. Can we afford to give up that kind of future production for a short-term rental? We are not in a place yet to give away HUGE future production for plus short-term gain. Especially not more than one future prospect.
Do we trade away our future to possibly make the playoffs this year? Or do we wait a year or two, keep our prospects and build a team that can actually compete for a World Series? We have been to the playoffs many times. Yes, not recently. I would rather wait and build a team that can actually bring us a major sport championship.
Do you think we are going to trade a Gore, Trammell, Patino, Abrams, Edwards, Campusano or two? Do you seriously think a team is going to trade a Betts, Lindor, Bryant, Merrifield, Syndergaard or even Gray or Boyd without receiving at least one and probably two along with more to get any of them? I just don't see the value in those trades. 2 years of their guy versus 12 years from our two guys at least, and probably more?
I see lots of trade suggestions here that are 5-6 second level prospects for 1 or 2 stars(or at least big time players). The problem is, I never see those trades happen IRL. Look at any team that has defined a price for a top player who they might trade. None of them mention second level prospects. And yes, I know that our second level prospects are as good as many teams first level prospects. I just think that those teams who don't have our kinds of premium prospects have no chance at making those trades either. Teams want TOP prospects for TOP talent. I just don't think we are going to be able to get top talent for our second level prospects. I guess we will see what happens.
#476 · November 16, 2019, 8:10 pm
I don’t think Gore, Patino, Campusano or TT will be moved. Would I be shocked if an Edwards, Abrams, O.Miller, Morejon, Baez, Arias, Potts, Weathers, Cantillo or from ML Urias, Renfroe, Margot, Hedges, Lauer, Lucchesi, Cal, Naylor get dealt? No I wouldn’t shocked and all those guys have great to significant value on the trade market. I think some combination of those players could be used to acquire a big time player. Didn’t AJP just pull off a 3-1 deal? The player he got in return was a top 30-50 prospect has a lot more than just two years of control. Would you say Logan Allen, Franmil Reyes have more value than my above list of tradable young players?
#477 · November 16, 2019, 8:28 pm
That was a trade FOR A PROSPECT. And I noticed that you do not think he will be traded. If 1-30 plus HR major league player and 2 prospects(one top 100) are worth 1 top prospect, what do you think teams with TOP major league talent to trade will expect?
Let's look at that Trevor Bauer trade. He had just over 1 year left on his contract at the time of the trade. We traded Franmil Reyes, a top 100 prospect and a nobody prospect. In return we got Taylor Trammell, the #30 prospect. The Reds ultimately traded Yasiel Puig, Scott Moss and Taylor Trammell for Trevor Bauer. So do you think we paid over half of the value of Trevor Bauer in that trade? Do you think Yasiel Puig and Scott Moss are roughly equal to Franmil Reyes and Logan Allen? Even if you call what the Reds gave up as less it would still have to equal at least a 50-100 prospect. That makes Trevor Bauer with 1 year of control worth 1-roughly #30 prospect and 1 50-100 prospect. So something like Patino and Edwards. For Trevor Bauer. For just over 1 year.
Now, do you think Whit Merrifield, Francisco Lindor and Noah Syndergaard, all of whom have at least 2 years of control, might cost significantly more? So Patino, Edwards and who else? If we have them for twice as long they should cost twice as much, no? Like maybe Trammell, Patino, Edwards and Campusano? Let's see how the market shakes out because right now, from what GM's have been saying, it seems like these are the prices. Why would a team take less when the Indians just got that kind of value?
#478 · November 16, 2019, 9:40 pm
So Morejon/Renfroe isn’t worth as much or more than Allen/Reyes? What about Naylor/Weathers or Edwards/Margot? I mean I can think of tons of combinations in the Padres deep farm and ML roster that would fetch a valuable return. Logan Allen is a 4 or 5 starter at best right? Reyes is a 1 dimensional power player who has to DH. I just think it’s silly to see a team with the Padres war chest and say no they can’t make deals this offseason without ruining the future. AJP is building this thing to be the sustainable winner that we all want. I’m sure AJP has an idea of who he thinks will be the 2bagger in 2021, 2022 seasons. Urias, Edwards, Miller, Abrams, Arias who knows? If AJP thinks Edwards is the future at second, he can move Urias and Miller. If he thinks his rotation will be Paddack/Gore/Patino/Lamet/Weathers then he can afford to move Morejon/Cantillo/Quantrill/Joey/Lauer/Lawson types to improve the 2020 roster. We’ve battled about this too many times... I say AJP pulls off 3 or more significant trades this offseason. 12 pack of beer bet?
#479 · November 16, 2019, 10:21 pm
If you think AJ can do that without touching our top 6 prospects I will take that bet.
#480 · November 17, 2019, 3:53 am
Quote from TatisJr on November 16, 2019, 9:40 pmSo Morejon/Renfroe isn’t worth as much or more than Allen/Reyes? What about Naylor/Weathers or Edwards/Margot? I mean I can think of tons of combinations in the Padres deep farm and ML roster that would fetch a valuable return. Logan Allen is a 4 or 5 starter at best right? Reyes is a 1 dimensional power player who has to DH. I just think it’s silly to see a team with the Padres war chest and say no they can’t make deals this offseason without ruining the future. AJP is building this thing to be the sustainable winner that we all want. I’m sure AJP has an idea of who he thinks will be the 2bagger in 2021, 2022 seasons. Urias, Edwards, Miller, Abrams, Arias who knows? If AJP thinks Edwards is the future at second, he can move Urias and Miller. If he thinks his rotation will be Paddack/Gore/Patino/Lamet/Weathers then he can afford to move Morejon/Cantillo/Quantrill/Joey/Lauer/Lawson types to improve the 2020 roster. We’ve battled about this too many times... I say AJP pulls off 3 or more significant trades this offseason. 12 pack of beer bet?
Oh I see at least 3 or 4 trades taking shape as early as today and certainly 1 or 2 minor ones between today and Wed...
Morejon has a ton of value I am 100% sure Renfroe can fetch Comforto 1 on 1.. So add Morejon and we should be able to snag Benintendi or better.. For that package.. As far as Edwards is concerned I see him as an Alan Wiggins type 2B... With better projected pop...