Quote from BoosterSD on November 12, 2019, 5:15 am

Quote from Henry Silvestre on November 12, 2019, 4:34 am

Just saw a proposed Wil + Urias + Ornelas + Head trade for Whit with KC taking ALL tge $$.. That would be a no-brainer for me.. Although I think Head could be special in CF.. And Ornelas Bat could develop in time.. But giving 2 10-20 org prospects + Urias for Whit while dumping ALL of Myers on KC .. Where do I sign

And that trade proposal was from someone who is a KC fan, saw that as well. I agree, that trade is already done if it was proposed to AJP.

Quote from MrPadre19 on November 12, 2019, 6:57 am

Quote from fenn68 on November 12, 2019, 4:26 am

On one hand I would like Merrifield (especially on his team friendly contract) but there is the reality that the better Padres’ prospect trade chips can only go in one trade.

So is Merrifield that critical using trade chips for him ... risks inhibiting other deals. It is the other teams that determine the chips they want so doing a substitution by the Padres may just not sell.

At this moment, not all that interested in using trade assets for any 2B and willing to give Urias a longer look offensively and really like his 2B defense. Add that very upbeat on the future for Edwards who has quickly jumped successfully to A+ and maybe be a 2021 factor .. 2022 at the latest.

Still priority should be TOR SP and OF - OF - OF for some offense. Use the trade assets there. Now IF the pursuit of OF is not panning out via trade or FA signings ... trading for Merrifield as an OF (I know not the greatest but OK) to add that OBP/speed element would appeal and he would provide some insurance if Urias does not develop.

====

Not sure why anyone would think Urias has good trade value. Would guess all other teams know the Padres’ back-ups are Kinsler / Garcia and know what Urias did in 2019 ... so if a rebuilding team like the Padres are giving up on Urias with no real back-up in place ... Urias must have minimal upside and by extension not worth much via trade.

Would add that 2B are not major targets in trades since “serviceable” 2B seem to be available ... so spend on the harder to fill slots.

The argument could be made that finding an All Star second baseman is more difficult than finding an All Star outfielder or even Starter.

I agree about using your "best" trade pieces but we have others....mine was only a suggestion.

I really feel like we will see 6-10 of our top 30 moved this offseason.

So use the best ones how you see fit but that doesn't rule out a 2nd deal involving Merrifield or another second baseman.

With $$ kinda tight....the FO saying they will be "active" this offseason...the mandate to "win or heads will roll"....and AJ's head the first that will do so...you better believe we are gonna see alot of our favorite prospects move on.

Can we get what we want/need without including Gore/Patino/Abrams?

MAYBE....but I doubt it esp if we are really considering guys like Bryant and Lindor.....and since I'm fairly certain Gore is untouchable that could mean Patino and/or Abrams...along with guys like Campusano,Edwards,Weathers etc....

My hope is that after the dust settles we still have at least Gore/Abrams/Edwards.....if not also Patino.

I just don't see how unless we stick with mid level major league players hoping they will add enough offense....but a big splash feels more likely.

 

Quote from Henry Silvestre on November 12, 2019, 7:32 am

Quote from David Nevin on November 12, 2019, 6:57 am

Quote from fenn68 on November 12, 2019, 4:26 am

On one hand I would like Merrifield (especially on his team friendly contract) but there is the reality that the better Padres’ prospect trade chips can only go in one trade.

So is Merrifield that critical using trade chips for him ... risks inhibiting other deals. It is the other teams that determine the chips they want so doing a substitution by the Padres may just not sell.

At this moment, not all that interested in using trade assets for any 2B and willing to give Urias a longer look offensively and really like his 2B defense. Add that very upbeat on the future for Edwards who has quickly jumped successfully to A+ and maybe be a 2021 factor .. 2022 at the latest.

Still priority should be TOR SP and OF - OF - OF for some offense. Use the trade assets there. Now IF the pursuit of OF is not panning out via trade or FA signings ... trading for Merrifield as an OF (I know not the greatest but OK) to add that OBP/speed element would appeal and he would provide some insurance if Urias does not develop.

====

Not sure why anyone would think Urias has good trade value. Would guess all other teams know the Padres’ back-ups are Kinsler / Garcia and know what Urias did in 2019 ... so if a rebuilding team like the Padres are giving up on Urias with no real back-up in place ... Urias must have minimal upside and by extension not worth much via trade.

Would add that 2B are not major targets in trades since “serviceable” 2B seem to be available ... so spend on the harder to fill slots.

The argument could be made that finding an All Star second baseman is more difficult than finding an All Star outfielder or even Starter.

I agree about using your "best" trade pieces but we have others....mine was only a suggestion.

I really feel like we will see 6-10 of our top 30 moved this offseason.

So use the best ones how you see fit but that doesn't rule out a 2nd deal involving Merrifield or another second baseman.

With $$ kinda tight....the FO saying they will be "active" this offseason...the mandate to "win or heads will roll"....and AJ's head the first that will do so...you better believe we are gonna see alot of our favorite prospects move on.

Can we get what we want/need without including Gore/Patino/Abrams?

MAYBE....but I doubt it esp if we are really considering guys like Bryant and Lindor.....and since I'm fairly certain Gore is untouchable that could mean Patino and/or Abrams...along with guys like Campusano,Edwards,Weathers etc....

My hope is that after the dust settles we still have at least Gore/Abrams/Edwards.....if not also Patino.

I just don't see how unless we stick with mid level major league players hoping they will add enough offense....but a big splash feels more likely.

 

The thing with 2B is ..Urias/Edwards/Milller/Arias/CJ.. Is we are deep deep deep with good to elite prospects who are mlb ready or just about.. With CJ 1 1/2 yrs out being the furthest and most talented of the bunch.. Our current OF is fine vs LHP but horrible vs RHP with only 1 top prospect expected to be ready over the next 2 yrs in Tramell..  Naylor/Trammell.. With Renfroe?/Margot? Still having a chance to move up a level.. And we only need 1 2B to be successful where we need 3 upgrades (probably 2 with platoons) in the OF.. With next to 0 in house options now or in the near future.. P like 2nd base is 15-20 arms deep over the next 2 yrs..and whereas a TOR is needed the "must upgrade" is more of a ramping up rather than a real need.. OF may just be the 1 position and 2 that would make the biggest impact on the club

Quote from fenn68 on November 12, 2019, 7:47 am

The current comments from Preller (similar to his comments from previous interviews) is that he is prepared to deal prospects. However, the organization has put values on each of the prospects (and expect also the team’s ML players) and also has placed values on all the trade targets ... and if those value match in trade discussion ... basis of a deal. If they don’t just move on.

Keys here are the cold analytics that pre-determine “values” of the players and then trades are a mathematical exercise. Just guessing the values on the players are more than potential as ML players ... but include their assessment of how good a ML player they can be plus how the fit up the Padre food chain, nearness to the ML, and so forth.

We mortals probably can not outguess their algorithms used to by the Padres based on their in-house evaluations / priorities .. either for their players or the trade targets. Not just a valuation of the player but that player in the Padres current / future structure.

Can’t hold on to everyone so if they believe Mejia is the #1 catcher for the next 2-4 years ...to be replaced by Campusano may have a higher valuation on Campusano then in turn lower trade valuations for Hedges, Allen, and Torrens. If a team wants them in a trade (and hopefully values them higher) and the return piece is a plus (or equal) to the Padres ... you got a trade. Remember this is an in-house trade valuation so others don’t have a clue so only rely on their valuations.

Sort of guessing that although some of the top prospects (e.g. Patino, Campusano, et al) would be AVAILABLE the valuation on them by the Padres would require a MAJOR return piece ... not going for a “nice” return. Also, would expect they would be focus points in deals not just one of many.

I guess on the flip side ... Padres may be off Urias and have a low trade valuation and if moving him contributed to getting someone they want ... he may be a easy inclusion. Kinsler / Garcia to Miller / Castillo / Quiroz / Edwards ...

Quote from MrPadre19 on November 12, 2019, 7:52 am

Quote from Henry Silvestre on November 12, 2019, 7:32 am

Quote from David Nevin on November 12, 2019, 6:57 am

Quote from fenn68 on November 12, 2019, 4:26 am

On one hand I would like Merrifield (especially on his team friendly contract) but there is the reality that the better Padres’ prospect trade chips can only go in one trade.

So is Merrifield that critical using trade chips for him ... risks inhibiting other deals. It is the other teams that determine the chips they want so doing a substitution by the Padres may just not sell.

At this moment, not all that interested in using trade assets for any 2B and willing to give Urias a longer look offensively and really like his 2B defense. Add that very upbeat on the future for Edwards who has quickly jumped successfully to A+ and maybe be a 2021 factor .. 2022 at the latest.

Still priority should be TOR SP and OF - OF - OF for some offense. Use the trade assets there. Now IF the pursuit of OF is not panning out via trade or FA signings ... trading for Merrifield as an OF (I know not the greatest but OK) to add that OBP/speed element would appeal and he would provide some insurance if Urias does not develop.

====

Not sure why anyone would think Urias has good trade value. Would guess all other teams know the Padres’ back-ups are Kinsler / Garcia and know what Urias did in 2019 ... so if a rebuilding team like the Padres are giving up on Urias with no real back-up in place ... Urias must have minimal upside and by extension not worth much via trade.

Would add that 2B are not major targets in trades since “serviceable” 2B seem to be available ... so spend on the harder to fill slots.

The argument could be made that finding an All Star second baseman is more difficult than finding an All Star outfielder or even Starter.

I agree about using your "best" trade pieces but we have others....mine was only a suggestion.

I really feel like we will see 6-10 of our top 30 moved this offseason.

So use the best ones how you see fit but that doesn't rule out a 2nd deal involving Merrifield or another second baseman.

With $$ kinda tight....the FO saying they will be "active" this offseason...the mandate to "win or heads will roll"....and AJ's head the first that will do so...you better believe we are gonna see alot of our favorite prospects move on.

Can we get what we want/need without including Gore/Patino/Abrams?

MAYBE....but I doubt it esp if we are really considering guys like Bryant and Lindor.....and since I'm fairly certain Gore is untouchable that could mean Patino and/or Abrams...along with guys like Campusano,Edwards,Weathers etc....

My hope is that after the dust settles we still have at least Gore/Abrams/Edwards.....if not also Patino.

I just don't see how unless we stick with mid level major league players hoping they will add enough offense....but a big splash feels more likely.

 

The thing with 2B is ..Urias/Edwards/Milller/Arias/CJ.. Is we are deep deep deep with good to elite prospects who are mlb ready or just about.. With CJ 1 1/2 yrs out being the furthest and most talented of the bunch.. Our current OF is fine vs LHP but horrible vs RHP with only 1 top prospect expected to be ready over the next 2 yrs in Tramell..  Naylor/Trammell.. With Renfroe?/Margot? Still having a chance to move up a level.. And we only need 1 2B to be successful where we need 3 upgrades (probably 2 with platoons) in the OF.. With next to 0 in house options now or in the near future.. P like 2nd base is 15-20 arms deep over the next 2 yrs..and whereas a TOR is needed the "must upgrade" is more of a ramping up rather than a real need.. OF may just be the 1 position and 2 that would make the biggest impact on the club

Was basing the 2b situation from comments from mgmt. about upgrading the position.

I agree OF is a bigger need due to our lack of close prospects but also easier to fill via trade/free agency.

I just have this "feeling"(no it isn't gas) that we will see 1-2 big trades along with trying to sign a TOR starter.(we could also still trade for a TOR instead).

If we sign any OF in free agency that would,IMO,increase the odds of acquiring a 2b via trade.

 

Quote from fenn68 on November 12, 2019, 8:15 am

Has to be some triage for Preller in moving on trades ... no idea what that is but it may be a lot of “preliminary discussions” to see who is really on the market (and the initial asks) and at the same time what other teams think of the Padres’ trade chips (probably less than we do).

Then move to serious negotiations on the top trade targets considering the pieces teams may want in return could be the same ML player or prospect. Basically nail down the best first.

At some point cut it off if agreement is not coming and move down the food chain while still keeping in touch if the seller changes his demands. Preller probably leave the first round giving a “last best final offer” which is good until Preller makes a different deal with the same trade chip or deals for the alternative to the trade target.

Got to be very intense and interactive especially if their are multiple deals being discussed for various role ... e.g. SP and OF and ???

Quote from BoosterSD on November 12, 2019, 8:43 am

Quote from David Nevin on November 12, 2019, 7:52 am

 

Was basing the 2b situation from comments from mgmt. about upgrading the position.

I agree OF is a bigger need due to our lack of close prospects but also easier to fill via trade/free agency.

I just have this "feeling"(no it isn't gas) that we will see 1-2 big trades along with trying to sign a TOR starter.(we could also still trade for a TOR instead).

If we sign any OF in free agency that would,IMO,increase the odds of acquiring a 2b via trade.

 

While I agree that we have the prospect money to trade for a TOR guy, who exactly is that guy?

Syndergaard - has two questions about him. Will NYM really trade him? BVW has come out and stated he is not trading Thor. Two, many on here question whether he is really a TOR guy, or is he a whiny PITA?

Kluber - questions about decline due to age makes some nervous.

Sale, Price, Eovaldi - all have large salaries and health concerns.

Snell - mentioned yesterday. I dont see TAM trading him. And TAM and AJP are prospect hounds, and even if TAM was willing to trade, dont see the prospects matching up.

Boyd, Fulmer, are not really TOR guys. Just dont see a TOR available in trade.

Quote from sportwarrior on November 12, 2019, 9:07 am

There is a relatively short list of untouchables in our organization, in my opinion. Gore, Patino, and CJ Edwards are the three at the very top. You don't trade any of them for anything short of an elite player, and even then, you only do it if you're a player or two away. It's perplexing to me anyone would consider Whitfield to be that player.

Quote from Brian Connelly on November 12, 2019, 9:59 am

Quote from sportwarrior on November 12, 2019, 9:07 am

There is a relatively short list of untouchables in our organization, in my opinion. Gore, Patino, and CJ Edwards are the three at the very top. You don't trade any of them for anything short of an elite player, and even then, you only do it if you're a player or two away. It's perplexing to me anyone would consider Whitfield to be that player.

IMO only Gore is TRULY untouchable, but I would add Trammell since we just traded for him; obviously Preller thinking he's CF of future.  I would rank our 6 top 100 prospects likelihood of being dealt in exact reverse order as MLB.com has them:

Gore - No trade for anyone not MVP/ Cy Young caliber with long control (Mike Trout)... basically like Tatis, Jr.

Trammell - No unless a star MLB CF with control is acquired

Patino - Agree with Sport; has to be an elite player 3+ yrs control to be included in a deal; "No" for 2 yrs Snydergaard, etc.  But Pads DO have the depth to trade him.

Abrams - I'll swim against the tide & say Abrams MIGHT be overrated; destroyed his peers in AZL... as he should being one of the very best HS players in country.  But top 50 already?  8 AB in full season ball / distance from MLB / possible move off SS  make his value to Pads higher than in trade

Edwards -  Extreme lack of power is a concern; BUT with Tatis' taking league by storm & looking viable ANYWHERE in lineup (i.e. 1-4 which was not really the thinking a year ago), Edwards speed & Switch hitting to go with advanced bat/eye may make him more valuable than Urias' pedestrian speed, RH only as a leadoff man in front of Tatis hitting 2nd?  Again, Pads may value his exact profile more highly than other teams.

Campusano - Breakout offensive year in offense friendly Cal League.  But (Minors thread) Luis Torrens put up very similar #'s in AA that Campusano will be hard pressed to match in 2020.  Pads so insanely deep at C, feels inevitable at least 1 is dealt, but can make arguments for all of them.  Sheer depth at position might make Campusano "most" available Top 100 prospect.