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Trade ideas

I don’t think AJ is concerned about 1B in the system.

Major League guys are fairly easy to find.....and guys who prove they can hit can move rather easily(Potts,Mears).

 

Quote from JasonE135 on February 5, 2020, 1:18 pm
Quote from fenn68 on February 5, 2020, 9:46 am

As a companion idea with the potential for a Houston match ... LAA still could use some SP boost to support what is shaping up as a great offense. (This is for the Marsh fans).

If we believe that Lucchesi and Quantrill may be a push for the #5 SP slot and expect at least Gore to be in the rotation mid-season (and Patino et al right behind) ... would it make sense to dangle Lucchesi out there for LAA in a package to get Marsh. LAA OF is going to be Upton - Trout - Adell for years to come. Marsh is a LHH who can hit and play all three OF slots ... plus I am not ready to assume Grisham, Trammell, Cordero, or Naylor will blossom into plus regular LHH OF. I will assume that Lucchesi will get bumped by the Padres prospects by 2021.

Maybe the anti get help now logic ... but can work both short and long term upgrades at the same time.

Addendum: effectively Maeda was worth the #83 prospect in Graterol ... not a big reach for a Lucchesi to be worth the #79 prospect in Marsh. Consider Lucchesi and Maeda are controlled for 4 years ... Lucchesi is younger / cheaper ... has more upside ... and in 2019 their on field performance was not that dissimilar. Then if you buy into the concept that pitchers carry more value than corner OF .. and consider there really is no room for Marsh in LAA for years ... should be a fit.

I would love to get Marsh. I mean LHH who is very likely to hit and plays CF? It's easy to see why everyone wants him. That is also a problem though, because I am sure that it would take more than just Lucchesie. I can see the Angels asking for Quantrill (who I really like) and Morejon or Baez. We would counter with Lucchesie and Bolanos. But I think it would either require Quantrill and Bolanos or Lucchesie and either Morejon or Baez. I'm sure you guys know how much I truly hate trading high upside pitchers and pitching prospects, but Marsh might actually be worth it.

 

I led with Lucchesi since he does have a ML track record / experience and the LAA are building to win in 2020 ... the prospects may project better in 2021 but don’t meet the 2020 need.

Add if necessary some mid-range prospect to Lucchesi.

Pham is gone in two years (sooner if Padres are not contending in 2021) .. Margot (3 years) is not likely to fill the full term .... Myers is ?. Grisham struggled in his ML debut away for Miller Park, no one wants to see Naylor in the OF, Trammell did not hit in AA, Cordero is a strikeout machine and can’t stay healthy, Neither Olivares nor Ona cracked the Top 100 .... basically might get a couple decent ML OF out of that crop after Pham is gone ... but adding a Top 100 to the competition seems like a good idea for 2021 and beyond.

Quote from fenn68 on February 5, 2020, 1:05 pm

Don’t see Boston moving Casas ... a good bat that will play well at at Fenway ... eventually. Bloom is clearly working for the future and probably is not worried so much about a #5 starter. They did re-sign Moreland a few days back so no need for Naylor.

SD may have a shortage of clear 1B but they have Hosmer for the next 6 years (like it or not) and he is only a 1B ... Casas is only a 1B.

If they somehow move Hosmer or he opts out after 2022 (3 more years) a good chance they have a “hitter” in house that may convert to 1B .... Mejia (if replaced by Campusano), one of the OF (Ona? Grisham? Ornelas?), an INF if Arias and Abrams blossom (Potts? Skender? Machado? Tatis?).

Bottom line, probably would trade for of a more Preller type .... C / SS / CF / SP who might show up at different positions.

You highlight one of my biggest issues with AJ Preller...   there's nothing wrong with the "up the middle bias"; C/SS/CF impact your team defense the most.   But "moved off" up the middle guys almost never really fit the ideal profile of the 4 corners 1B/3B/LF/RF guys who are more power, hit tool, less defensive ability/run tools...  they typically wind up at 2B or as inferior offensive corner OF.  You can't go 100% P & "up the middle"... which is largely what Preller HAS done.  Hasn't devoted even 25% of position player draft picks to "4 corners"; they just stick some random guy at 1B.  If we extend Tatis for 7-10 years, we really don't need another SS...

.... it's not a coincidence that he's extended "all 4 corners" Myers @ 6/83, and signed Hosmer @ 8/144 and Machado 10/300

Casas is a few years away.  Hos won't be playing on a contending team without a more positive WAR contribution in a few years....

we have NO one @ 1B in system.  Naylor (had to trade for him) really "it".

Quote from MrPadre19 on February 5, 2020, 2:00 pm

I don’t think AJ is concerned about 1B in the system.

Major League guys are fairly easy to find.....and guys who prove they can hit can move rather easily(Potts,Mears).

 

Yup... at 8/144 MM 🙂   I was for Hosmer.. on the record.  Maybe a little better lineup helps... who knows.

As for B. Marsh... 7 HR in 380+ AB in mostly AA but also Rookie (guess inj rehab?)...  50 Hit may be low, but 50 Power sure looks high.  Agree to disagree I guess.  POSITIVELY would not trade TWO 40-man SP's for him.  As usual, if we do, hope I'm wrong

I think ONA is going to "break out" in 2020--- He sure has had a nice offseason (in the weight room and cages) dude is so well put together and has a middle of the order bat ceiling-- I am going to go out on a limb and predict he gets 150 + AB's in SD in 20, and hits .280/.340/.500...

It's true, Pham is our only OF who has proven himself to be a quality Major League quality OF. Unfortunately, he plays LF and that is the only position we still have an untested replacement for-Taylor Trammell. Myers is going to max out at .250-25-25 with a low OBP, and that is if he is lucky. Margot is a great defender but doesn't have the bat to stick. Cordero still has infinite potential but strikes out way too much. None of the 3 can really be counted on and are realistically close to the end of their chances to be regular starters. If we are LUCKY we will have one of Trammell or Grisham turn into a true quality ML starting OF. They are both best suited to LF. Trammell can play CF but he has a weak arm and isn't ideal for that position. As many OF as we have, we still only have 1 sure thing, and he is only here for 2 years.

Trammell still has a pretty good chance to become a good starter. We could seriously use a guy who has proven the ability to not only play CF but also has a plus arm and might actually hit effectively at the ML level. Being a LH would be a huge plus. Marsh fits this description perfectly. If we have any chance to get him we should. Every team needs a CF who can hit and play good defense. Power is an extra - you can't have everything. Unless Preller is planning on moving Abrams to CF, we really need a true prospect for that position. We need some true quality prospects to get to the majors soon and cover the OF until guys like Head, Mena and Mears can get here.

Yes we are short on power hitters all throughout our system. The only guys we really have are Ona and Mears and they both have to prove that they can be more than Renfroe type hitters. I think that if we are ever going to sign another big free agent it will be a power hitting corner OF, probably a RF since we don't have any on the way.

We have 3B, 1B and SS covered for years. We have tons of C prospects so that is covered. Out of all those middle IF prospects we have, at least 1 will come through to become a quality 2B for us. We have pitching prospects coming out of our ears. Our only tried minor league holes are true quality OF and power hitters.

I completely agree. We need to secure ML OFs or top 100 nearly ML talent as soon as possible. I see potential at 2B and C in our farm but have a tough time identifying OF ML talent with a a decently high chance of ML certainty.

We need to deal from our SP depth now or we will lose out on our initial two year window.

I would assert that farm depth has diminishing returns at a point and that it would be wise to focus on OF nearly exclusively. I would see if Boston would flip Verdugo for SP and target other top 50 OFs even if the acquisition price was steep.

Forget Myers...move on...proposition teams on OFers

Yelich is got my "crosshairs" on him -- especially if Brewers start slow and Yelich proves to be 100% recovered from his knee injury-- 7-9 WAR player -- can play anywhere in the OF, has a super friendly 3yrs left (at this moment) of control-- type of MVP caliber talent a team goes and gets to go from contender to WS Champ

Just imagine the package it would take to get Yelich!

Yikes!

Objective: move Myers and as much of his contract as possible.

  1. assume the Boston - LAD deals goes through pretty much along the lines as report Betts ($27MM) and Price ($16MM net) and not big contract back to Boston.
    1. Boston currently for luxury tax at $233MM vs threshold of $208MM
    2. Moving Betts / Price drops them $43MM ... new level at $190MM ($18MM BELOW)
  2. assume Boston still wants to dump Bradley ($11MM / 1 year) but not just release him to even get lower
  3. Boston will be sitting at an OF of Benintendi - Bradley - Verdugo (all LHH) for 2020 and nothing on the horizon for 2021 as Bradley goes FA
  4. Boston ... losing Price and a gap in SP ... especially RHP
  5. Boston has a very shallow farm system

Enter the Padres offering Myers (3 years / $60 MM), Quantrill, Lawson, Oliveras (or similar) and some cash for Bradley ($11MM).

Boston stays under the tax threshold ... and with R.Castillo off the books next winter ... under by a fair amount. Myers in Fenway playing RF might be effective and at a minimum balances the LHH OF with a RHH bat. Should note that over the past 3 years Myers has had a better wRC+ than Bradley. So for a cost differential a better hitter and 3 years plus three prospects (non-elite) for 6 years. Maybe some negotiation on the Cash (if any) to Boston.

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Suppose that they could make that (or similar) deal without Bradley (Boston just release him) ... and we get a Myers and prospects for SD salary relief and after the Betts / Price deal Boston has the room to "buy" prospect to build for the future. Balancing the money is always an issue.

Maybe the Padres still have a trade route with Boston IF the objective is moving Myers and most of his contract.

Pham - Grisham - Cordero / Naylor the SD OF until Trammell arrives. A lot of freed up money in 2021 for the next moves.