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Trade ideas

Quote from fenn68 on February 9, 2020, 2:59 pm

Objective: move Myers and as much of his contract as possible.

  1. assume the Boston - LAD deals goes through pretty much along the lines as report Betts ($27MM) and Price ($16MM net) and not big contract back to Boston.
    1. Boston currently for luxury tax at $233MM vs threshold of $208MM
    2. Moving Betts / Price drops them $43MM ... new level at $190MM ($18MM BELOW)
  2. assume Boston still wants to dump Bradley ($11MM / 1 year) but not just release him to even get lower
  3. Boston will be sitting at an OF of Benintendi - Bradley - Verdugo (all LHH) for 2020 and nothing on the horizon for 2021 as Bradley goes FA
  4. Boston ... losing Price and a gap in SP ... especially RHP
  5. Boston has a very shallow farm system

Enter the Padres offering Myers (3 years / $60 MM), Quantrill, Lawson, Oliveras (or similar) and some cash for Bradley ($11MM).

Boston stays under the tax threshold ... and with R.Castillo off the books next winter ... under by a fair amount. Myers in Fenway playing RF might be effective and at a minimum balances the LHH OF with a RHH bat. Should note that over the past 3 years Myers has had a better wRC+ than Bradley. So for a cost differential a better hitter and 3 years plus three prospects (non-elite) for 6 years. Maybe some negotiation on the Cash (if any) to Boston.

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Suppose that they could make that (or similar) deal without Bradley (Boston just release him) ... and we get a Myers and prospects for SD salary relief and after the Betts / Price deal Boston has the room to "buy" prospect to build for the future. Balancing the money is always an issue.

Maybe the Padres still have a trade route with Boston IF the objective is moving Myers and most of his contract.

Pham - Grisham - Cordero / Naylor the SD OF until Trammell arrives. A lot of freed up money in 2021 for the next moves.

What's the use ? Boston will just demand more after the trade is completed.  I'm glad the Twins held their ground and made LA cough up more. The even got $10 Mil from LA in the reworked deal and LA had to give up Jeter Downs and a minor league catcher.

I wouldn't mind signing Mayben to a minor league deal and add him to the 40 man when they can put Espinosa on the 60 day. He had a pretty good year last year and could platoon in CF against LH

How about JOC now that Angels deal is off?.. 3.3 WAR 2019.. .876 OPS .. 1yr rental can play CF well... Only 7.5 mil.. So how about Guerra (no options can help dismal BP in LAD + Owen Miller or Potts?  Similar to the player LAA was giving up originally...

 

Moving Joc.. (No need with Betts/Budinger/AJ Pollock ++) and gets LAD under lux tax

Quote from Henry Silvestre on February 9, 2020, 9:01 pm

How about JOC now that Angels deal is off?.. 3.3 WAR 2019.. .876 OPS .. 1yr rental can play CF well... Only 7.5 mil.. So how about Guerra (no options can help dismal BP in LAD + Owen Miller or Potts?  Similar to the player LAA was giving up originally...

 

Moving Joc.. (No need with Betts/Budinger/AJ Pollock ++) and gets LAD under lux tax

LAD may prefer only getting non-roster players since at the moment they are over the 40 man by 2 but I guess they will DFA a couple now rather than “force” a trade.

Actually, I would be asking about the pitcher Stripling (probably a lot of teams are). 30, low cost, starter with a mid-3 ERA in his three years, 3 years control ... would be an upgrade immediately over Lucchesi / Quantrill.

 

Myers + a SP (Boston desparate)  for JBJ is a really valid idea.  Boston doesn't have to take ALL of Myers' $; frankly I'd say take "only" 10 MM in 2020 so their payroll doesn't increase from new level, and we don't have a "use" for any salary savings in 2020.  They gain better lineup balance, the SP they desparately need, and asset for JBJ....  likely Benintendi moves to CF, Myers stays in LF.

... BUT they do take all remaining Myers $ in 2021-22... this is basically back to the Myers + Joey or Cal = 45 MM idea... but in this case it's worth 51 MM because we're leveraging a desparate need for Boston, but also they would likely insist on Quantrill since more control/upside & they are LHP heavy.

I was just looking at my updated (completely speculative, but trying to be "conservative") Pads $ situation in 2021:  I have them losing FA's Richards, Yates, & Profar.  GAINING +10-11 MM in Payroll space over current level (143-144 MM).  This assumes ALL players currently in Arb years remain Padres next year (extremely unlikely), AND that all possible 1st year Arb guys do reach Arb & remain Pads next year....

.... If I'm in the ballpark, this move would:  "backfill" the loss of Margot in CF giving Trammell & maybe Cordero more time in minors to develop, eliminate a SP who probably wouldn't be in top 5 for us next season, and gives the Padres 30+ MM to work with "just" to get back to 140-145 MM payroll... enough to sign a superstar.

In 2021 should be set in bullpen, even if lose Yates, but very possibly also "set" at SP.  Likely needs on field same as this year:  C, 2B, but esp OF.  Besides the obvious (Betts), anyone know of other GOOD CF/RF FA to be next year?

As of now ... George Springer (RHH) could step into either position (will be about 31).

If you wanted to gamble a bit on the arm in RF ... Michael Brantley (LHH) will be about 33 but has always carried a plus bat. Either Brantley or Pham goes to RF the other in LF.

Going to be hard for Houston to pony up the money to sign both of them (if they even want to resign with Houston). Houston also has Reddick as a FA ... so their entire OF .... plus 1B Gurriel.

Add that the following year Verlander and Greinke (old and expensive), McCullers, Correa, and Osuna become FA. Houston has to figure out who they want to resign and at the same time the players (and their agents) have to look at the future of Houston (very poor farm system) and consider their futures better served moving to another team.

A "Myers out" trade with Boston does seem unlikely now...  but what about a watered down deal with a frequently mentioned trade piece?

Boston gets:  Josh Naylor  OR  Cal Quantrill

Padres get:  JBJ, $5.5 MM = 1/2 his salary, Prospect 1B Triston Casas (#85)

Red Sox need SP.  Return for Q might be too light, but hard to see other obvious pieces.   Sox then would be down an OF, but Benentendi could play CF.   They could look for band aid LF or CF types in ST / at cuts?

Return for Naylor could be argued is too "high" for Pads; but the timing of Naylor vs Casas (who really outperformed what Naylor did in low A Sally league @ same stage of development) MLB arrival works much better for both teams if they traded places.

Either guy definitely gets an opportunity at a major role in Boston they may be ultimately blocked from in SD, so not a huge loss to Pads even if might wind up losing trade.  Pads plug CF for 1 year for a net cost of only 5.5 JBJ - 2. 4 Margot = +3 MM.  Get potential future replacement for Hosmer.

Boston signed Moreland (1 year + option) for 1B, Martinez is the DH, they can slide Chavis back to 1B if the find a 2B option ... and unlikely they want Naylor for the OF as another LHH. Put that all together and not a motivation to move Casas ... easy to wait. Plus 1B/DH are a dime a dozen for filler roles.

They probably would take Quantrill ... but he has shown zip as a ML asset with a 5+ ERA so not moving a Top 100 prospect for him.

Not sure the appeal of Bradley at any cost ... only 1 year control ... has not been able to hit for a few years and his defense (once elite) has diminished dramatically to maybe "average". Padres are better off with Cordero / Grisham offensively and maybe even defensively. Bradley (away from Fenway) hit a robust .191 last season yielding a 72 wRC+. For comparison, Margot away got a 95 wRC+. He would be a waste of money and any price.

Side: think Margot may put us some decent stats (.250-260 BA) playing home games in TB vs PETCO ... not an All-Star but that will likely frustrate some Padre fans if Pagan struggles at all.

For the record I have zero interest in Bradley.....I had mentioned him based on a "possible" scenario to acquire Betts if the Sox needed more salary relief with us sending Myers.

But sans Betts....nope.

Not interested.

I'd rather roll with Grisham/Franchy in CF with Myers in RF.

 

Quote from Brian Connelly on February 11, 2020, 10:17 am

A "Myers out" trade with Boston does seem unlikely now...  but what about a watered down deal with a frequently mentioned trade piece?

Boston gets:  Josh Naylor  OR  Cal Quantrill

Padres get:  JBJ, $5.5 MM = 1/2 his salary, Prospect 1B Triston Casas (#85)

Red Sox need SP.  Return for Q might be too light, but hard to see other obvious pieces.   Sox then would be down an OF, but Benentendi could play CF.   They could look for band aid LF or CF types in ST / at cuts?

Return for Naylor could be argued is too "high" for Pads; but the timing of Naylor vs Casas (who really outperformed what Naylor did in low A Sally league @ same stage of development) MLB arrival works much better for both teams if they traded places.

Either guy definitely gets an opportunity at a major role in Boston they may be ultimately blocked from in SD, so not a huge loss to Pads even if might wind up losing trade.  Pads plug CF for 1 year for a net cost of only 5.5 JBJ - 2. 4 Margot = +3 MM.  Get potential future replacement for Hosmer.

Boston fans are the only ones who think JBJ has any value at all. His defense has gone down to average and his bat is terrible. We already have that in Lagares, who is a RHH to offset Cordero and Grisham. We have no more place for Casas than we do Naylor. This trade would give us absolutely nothing. Also, we are absolutely going to need Quantrill this season. He has tremendous value. By the end of this season I do not think the Padres will even think of trading him. We might have been willing to trade him for Betts, I don't think there is any way AJ will trade him for JBJ. Starters have huge value.

Quote from JasonE135 on February 11, 2020, 4:59 pm
Quote from Brian Connelly on February 11, 2020, 10:17 am

A "Myers out" trade with Boston does seem unlikely now...  but what about a watered down deal with a frequently mentioned trade piece?

Boston gets:  Josh Naylor  OR  Cal Quantrill

Padres get:  JBJ, $5.5 MM = 1/2 his salary, Prospect 1B Triston Casas (#85)

Red Sox need SP.  Return for Q might be too light, but hard to see other obvious pieces.   Sox then would be down an OF, but Benentendi could play CF.   They could look for band aid LF or CF types in ST / at cuts?

Return for Naylor could be argued is too "high" for Pads; but the timing of Naylor vs Casas (who really outperformed what Naylor did in low A Sally league @ same stage of development) MLB arrival works much better for both teams if they traded places.

Either guy definitely gets an opportunity at a major role in Boston they may be ultimately blocked from in SD, so not a huge loss to Pads even if might wind up losing trade.  Pads plug CF for 1 year for a net cost of only 5.5 JBJ - 2. 4 Margot = +3 MM.  Get potential future replacement for Hosmer.

Boston fans are the only ones who think JBJ has any value at all. His defense has gone down to average and his bat is terrible. We already have that in Lagares, who is a RHH to offset Cordero and Grisham. We have no more place for Casas than we do Naylor. This trade would give us absolutely nothing. Also, we are absolutely going to need Quantrill this season. He has tremendous value. By the end of this season I do not think the Padres will even think of trading him. We might have been willing to trade him for Betts, I don't think there is any way AJ will trade him for JBJ. Starters have huge value.

FENN:   They probably would take Quantrill ... but he has shown zip as a ML asset with a 5+ ERA so not moving a Top 100 prospect for him.

LOL!  At least I'm in the middle here... probably closer to Jason, though.  I said feels light for Q... FENN:  Quantrill really flashed at times, but it's hard to see him climbing into our top 5 even this year, let alone next.  He's like our #6+ this year, but would immediately be Boston's #4 now without Gore & Patino breathing down his neck!  I find it insane a team wouldn't trade a low top 100 pick who just spent the year at LOW A for a 6 yr control MLB SP?  My concern is if he doesn't start for us now, doesn't his trade value just plunge due to perception he's "not good enough to start"?

I think as Padres fans we've got our blinders on a little bit that we're going to be "just fine" having traded our best DEFENSIVE CF ( AND 2nd best defender & only "true" RF in Renfroe).  Feel like the conversation has moved  VERY quickly to wacky ideas like "Myers" (yeah, that went well in 2015) and "Cordero" (literally has barely played at any level in 2 full years) as our starting CF?!?  ONLY idea that has any merit on O.D. is Grisham, and he's unproven at MLB defensively too.

JBJ in my proposal would only cost about 3 MM more than what we're committing potentially to Lagares!   As a team that is shooting to win more than half our games, we should have the lead more than half the time late in games... who do we really want in CF when that's the case?   Could even flip JBJ at deadline if Grisham, Cordero, &/or Trammell are on track by then... 1/2 year in Minors wouldn't hurt either guy; Grisham raced up levels to MLB last year, and Cordero just needs everyday playing time reps somewhere to make up for lost time