Quote from fenn68 on February 5, 2020, 9:33 am

Could Houston be setting up as a trade partner. A lot of ML talent and still AL West favorite BUT LAA are going to make a strong run with the full season return of Otani / Simmons and the adds of Pederson / Stripling plus Rendon. The Astros are lacking depth and have no help from their farm system coming.

Given their "turmoil" ... and new GM and new manager ... plus an aging team with five significant FA after 2020: Springer (30 and not seemingly wanting to test FA); Brantley (33); Reddick (33) ... all OF .... then 1B Gurrieal (35) and then SP Peacock (32) is there some incentive to do some roster reshaping?  All that while being over the luxury tax in 2020. Houston is on the brink of a rapid decent (maybe in 2021) when you couple the older and ever aging Greinke and Verlander and the injury history of McCullers. Add that Correa looks to want FA when he becomes eligible in 2 years.

The new GM is out of the TB tree of Friedman and Bloom ... and should be internal prospect bias (which they don't have). Open to deal a high paid short control upside veteran for prospects? Sort of a mini-Betts deal.

Would the Padres be interested in LHHs Brantley ($16MM) or Reddick ($13MM) on one year deals at the cost of Myers ($20MM/yr for 3 years) plus some cash buy down and give some prospects? Neither are Betts so probably not  the "elites". Actually, Myers in Houston's home park could be killing that short LF porch.

If the Astro still wanted to make a push in 2020 ... and considering they only have one LHP on their projected staff would a "longer control" major league player such as Strahm (3 years and low cost) be more interesting than prospects? Lucchesi to boost the SP?

Quote from fenn68 on February 5, 2020, 9:46 am

As a companion idea with the potential for a Houston match ... LAA still could use some SP boost to support what is shaping up as a great offense. (This is for the Marsh fans).

If we believe that Lucchesi and Quantrill may be a push for the #5 SP slot and expect at least Gore to be in the rotation mid-season (and Patino et al right behind) ... would it make sense to dangle Lucchesi out there for LAA in a package to get Marsh. LAA OF is going to be Upton - Trout - Adell for years to come. Marsh is a LHH who can hit and play all three OF slots ... plus I am not ready to assume Grisham, Trammell, Cordero, or Naylor will blossom into plus regular LHH OF. I will assume that Lucchesi will get bumped by the Padres prospects by 2021.

Maybe the anti get help now logic ... but can work both short and long term upgrades at the same time.

Addendum: effectively Maeda was worth the #83 prospect in Graterol ... not a big reach for a Lucchesi to be worth the #79 prospect in Marsh. Consider Lucchesi and Maeda are controlled for 4 years ... Lucchesi is younger / cheaper ... has more upside ... and in 2019 their on field performance was not that dissimilar. Then if you buy into the concept that pitchers carry more value than corner OF .. and consider there really is no room for Marsh in LAA for years ... should be a fit.

Quote from Brian Connelly on February 5, 2020, 11:02 am

Don't think there are going to be any MAJOR trades before/during Spring Training now.  If so, it will be Bryant going to a team that plans to play him at 3B.

But I have a real trade proposal.   Boston now literally does not have a #5 SP.  Graterol probably a year away, needing more experience, development, and might wind up better suited to be late inning pen guy.  I don't want to "help" Boston; want to "exploit" their weakness.  So:

Boston gets:  

• Ronald Bolanos RH SP, #15-20 range Padres prospect, "45" grade
  
• Josh Naylor

Padres get:    

• (Former) Sox #1 Prospect:  Triston Casas:  2o y.o. (2018-HS) #85 overall /#4 1B prospect
• Sox #8 Prospect:  Thad Ward 23 y.o. (2018-College) RH SP, "50" grade.
• "Worst" minimum Salary RP (or any position) on Boston's 40-man roster

This is a "ready now" for "ready later" trade more typical of a deadline deal, esp with a top 100 prospect involved.   But it really might make sense for both sides.  Pads leveraging both Boston's desparate need for MLB capable SP and Casas' distance from MLB.

I feel that I "like" Naylor more than the majority of this board.  He has a real role on Pads bench and as primary backup to Hosmer.... but what I really like is the concept of him potentially replacing Hos next year when Hos' full no-trade goes away.    That being said, Naylor is a WAY better fit in Boston, especially post-trade:  Backs up/pushes Moreland @ 1B & maybe a few starts in LF this year.  Probalby ideally 1/2 year in AAA to develop in game power & defense.  But next year if Benintendi shifts to CF to replace Bradley (assuming Betts doesn't return... could), Naylor is on hand to potentially plug in at either LF or 1B (band aid Moreland has cheap club option).

Bolanos threw 125 IP in 2018, 150 IP last year, so is on track for an MLB workload.  His arrow is up, with an advanced ability to change speeds & deep if not overwhelming arsenal.  May be better than his "45" grade, but realistically likely a #4-5 SP ceiling.  Ward is "old" but just turned 23, grades higher, but looks really similar to Bolanos.  Strong season last year 1/2 low-A 1/2 high-A.

Boston (still) has a full 40-man, a minor but real part of the big trade negotiations too.  Assuming they clear 2 needed spots by us getting a DFA type guy, and them putting Pedroia on IL ASAP.

Boston would likely want Quantrill or Lucchesi in this deal, but that is too much with Naylor.  I would consider either guy alone for this return though... Casas would plug the one GLARING hole in our system & could be ready right when we need him to be.   For comparison sake, Naylor hit 9 HR in 322 AB in low A "Sally" league in 2016.  Casas hit 19 last year in same league in +19 AB.  He also grades as a better defender (@ 1B ).

 

Quote from Brian Connelly on February 5, 2020, 11:23 am

The Houston OF/Myers trade is interesting... they will have holes next year & getting younger in OF WITH Myers.  At this point if I'm Pads I eat the salary difffernce this year in exchange for passing on more of 21-22 $.

But the OBSESSION for Brandon Marsh is not!   Pads have basically made that trade twice in the last 12 months for young good LH OF with Trammell & Grisham.  Throw in Cordero & Naylor, and you've got FOUR LH "top 100-200" prospect type OF's.  I don't quite "get" why the repeated push for this specific prospect who would just compete for playing time with prospects recently acquired &  likely force a subsequent move/s?

But as just posted, would consider Lucchessi or Q for #85 Triston Casas Boston 1B + more... b/c he just played @ low-A last year.  Perfectly fills biggest hole in system & looming eventual need

Quote from Brian Connelly on February 5, 2020, 12:28 pm

Looked at Houston idea a little.  Brantley aging like fine wine, so can't see them doing that.  But Reddick a possibility.

LH Reddick is a pretty pronounced reverse split guy the last 2 years; with an OPS < 700 vs RHP... actually a little worse than Myers.  But more experienced in RF & asset vs LHP.  He wouldn't be thrilled at all in a contract year likely; going from Hou to SD & possibly even platoon duty... but he's a pro, and bluntly, he's made his $.

Houston's 2021 OF & 1B need actually looks almost identical to Boston, but they are a potential match for Myers.  So how about:

Houston gets:   Myers, Josh Naylor, balance of Myers' $ this year (7 MM) plus 10 MM (5/5) towards 21-22 Myers' contract

Padres get:  Reddick

Myers' relatively stable splits means Reddick actually hits LH better than he does, but Myers is younger & might benefit being in that powerhouse lineup.  Houston "overpaying" him to be net zero this year, plug next year's corner OF roster holes, and gain cheap controllable Naylor who, as with Boston, is a really good fit with upcoming needs.

Pads shed 44 MM of Myers, including 30 (15/15) in 21-22 when they can redploy the $ as/where needed with what looks like a young cheap talented rotation, deep good bullpen, and some star position players, but possibly some holes too.  Astros' Farm is terrible & now down top draft picks, but wouldn't involve top 10 type prospects, and lesser guys don't move $ needle much.  More risk than reward to Pads as "throw ins"

Quote from fenn68 on February 5, 2020, 12:54 pm

Quote from Brian Connelly on February 5, 2020, 12:28 pm

Looked at Houston idea a little.  Brantley aging like fine wine, so can't see them doing that.  But Reddick a possibility.

LH Reddick is a pretty pronounced reverse split guy the last 2 years; with an OPS < 700 vs RHP... actually a little worse than Myers.  But more experienced in RF & asset vs LHP.  He wouldn't be thrilled at all in a contract year likely; going from Hou to SD & possibly even platoon duty... but he's a pro, and bluntly, he's made his $.

Houston's 2021 OF & 1B need actually looks almost identical to Boston, but they are a potential match for Myers.  So how about:

Houston gets:   Myers, Josh Naylor, balance of Myers' $ this year (7 MM) plus 10 MM (5/5) towards 21-22 Myers' contract

Padres get:  Reddick

Myers' relatively stable splits means Reddick actually hits LH better than he does, but Myers is younger & might benefit being in that powerhouse lineup.  Houston "overpaying" him to be net zero this year, plug next year's corner OF roster holes, and gain cheap controllable Naylor who, as with Boston, is a really good fit with upcoming needs.

Pads shed 44 MM of Myers, including 30 (15/15) in 21-22 when they can redploy the $ as/where needed with what looks like a young cheap talented rotation, deep good bullpen, and some star position players, but possibly some holes too.  Astros' Farm is terrible & now down top draft picks, but wouldn't involve top 10 type prospects, and lesser guys don't move $ needle much.  More risk than reward to Pads as "throw ins"

That kind of works for me. Plus from Houston’s perspective they are in the AL with the DH ... a second place for Naylor ... more reason for them to take on Myers’ contract.

Quote from fenn68 on February 5, 2020, 1:05 pm

Don’t see Boston moving Casas ... a good bat that will play well at at Fenway ... eventually. Bloom is clearly working for the future and probably is not worried so much about a #5 starter. They did re-sign Moreland a few days back so no need for Naylor.

SD may have a shortage of clear 1B but they have Hosmer for the next 6 years (like it or not) and he is only a 1B ... Casas is only a 1B.

If they somehow move Hosmer or he opts out after 2022 (3 more years) a good chance they have a “hitter” in house that may convert to 1B .... Mejia (if replaced by Campusano), one of the OF (Ona? Grisham? Ornelas?), an INF if Arias and Abrams blossom (Potts? Skender? Machado? Tatis?).

Bottom line, probably would trade for of a more Preller type .... C / SS / CF / SP who might show up at different positions.

Quote from JasonE135 on February 5, 2020, 1:05 pm

Quote from Brian Connelly on February 5, 2020, 12:28 pm

Looked at Houston idea a little.  Brantley aging like fine wine, so can't see them doing that.  But Reddick a possibility.

LH Reddick is a pretty pronounced reverse split guy the last 2 years; with an OPS < 700 vs RHP... actually a little worse than Myers.  But more experienced in RF & asset vs LHP.  He wouldn't be thrilled at all in a contract year likely; going from Hou to SD & possibly even platoon duty... but he's a pro, and bluntly, he's made his $.

Houston's 2021 OF & 1B need actually looks almost identical to Boston, but they are a potential match for Myers.  So how about:

Houston gets:   Myers, Josh Naylor, balance of Myers' $ this year (7 MM) plus 10 MM (5/5) towards 21-22 Myers' contract

Padres get:  Reddick

Myers' relatively stable splits means Reddick actually hits LH better than he does, but Myers is younger & might benefit being in that powerhouse lineup.  Houston "overpaying" him to be net zero this year, plug next year's corner OF roster holes, and gain cheap controllable Naylor who, as with Boston, is a really good fit with upcoming needs.

Pads shed 44 MM of Myers, including 30 (15/15) in 21-22 when they can redploy the $ as/where needed with what looks like a young cheap talented rotation, deep good bullpen, and some star position players, but possibly some holes too.  Astros' Farm is terrible & now down top draft picks, but wouldn't involve top 10 type prospects, and lesser guys don't move $ needle much.  More risk than reward to Pads as "throw ins"

At this point Reddick is their #5 OF. They have Alvarez(2019 ROY), Tucker(very good hitter with 25-35 HR potential), Brantley(fine wine) and Springer(do I need to say anything) as their current OF. Reddick is an extra who will be traded to help replenish the farm. No way the Astros want anything to do with Myers. He would be a backup making $22.5 million per year. Houston has no need to trade Reddick so they will ask for a lot.

Quote from JasonE135 on February 5, 2020, 1:18 pm

Quote from fenn68 on February 5, 2020, 9:46 am

As a companion idea with the potential for a Houston match ... LAA still could use some SP boost to support what is shaping up as a great offense. (This is for the Marsh fans).

If we believe that Lucchesi and Quantrill may be a push for the #5 SP slot and expect at least Gore to be in the rotation mid-season (and Patino et al right behind) ... would it make sense to dangle Lucchesi out there for LAA in a package to get Marsh. LAA OF is going to be Upton - Trout - Adell for years to come. Marsh is a LHH who can hit and play all three OF slots ... plus I am not ready to assume Grisham, Trammell, Cordero, or Naylor will blossom into plus regular LHH OF. I will assume that Lucchesi will get bumped by the Padres prospects by 2021.

Maybe the anti get help now logic ... but can work both short and long term upgrades at the same time.

Addendum: effectively Maeda was worth the #83 prospect in Graterol ... not a big reach for a Lucchesi to be worth the #79 prospect in Marsh. Consider Lucchesi and Maeda are controlled for 4 years ... Lucchesi is younger / cheaper ... has more upside ... and in 2019 their on field performance was not that dissimilar. Then if you buy into the concept that pitchers carry more value than corner OF .. and consider there really is no room for Marsh in LAA for years ... should be a fit.

I would love to get Marsh. I mean LHH who is very likely to hit and plays CF? It's easy to see why everyone wants him. That is also a problem though, because I am sure that it would take more than just Lucchesie. I can see the Angels asking for Quantrill (who I really like) and Morejon or Baez. We would counter with Lucchesie and Bolanos. But I think it would either require Quantrill and Bolanos or Lucchesie and either Morejon or Baez. I'm sure you guys know how much I truly hate trading high upside pitchers and pitching prospects, but Marsh might actually be worth it.