Quote from MrPadre19 on December 13, 2019, 5:54 am

Just imagine if he'd gotten Soto and Castillo?

So close.

Now...how long until we can steal the youngest Tatis(Elijah) from the White Sox?

 

Quote from fenn68 on December 13, 2019, 6:12 am

My comment is not about what Preller has done so far ... which I like. It is about where he could go (and give up) if he really followed the win or get fired threat.

In 2015, I still believe he was pressured by Mike Dee (and in retrospect Fowler) to make big moves ... and yes they did not have a deep pool of prospects but they did pick up a lot of payroll that they had to eat later ... arguable could have been used more productively. Bottom line is that the deals for veterans were “sub-optimal”. Turner for Myers, Grandal / Erlin for Kemp, and Fried / Mallex Smith for Upton did not work out all that well. Padres kept on losing.

In 2019, if the same pressure exists from Fowler, he now has the talent to deal to “chase” (and overpay) for veteran names as short term fixes but this time actually hurt the future.

I do blame Fowler for this situation ... zero upside for the organization to publicly make the “heads will role” statement. But as I said, don’t really think Preller has that pressure on him and will stay the course ... can make the argument if he doesn’t make “big moves” and they lose ... he gets fired. If he makes “big moves” and they lose ... he get fired. If he makes “big moves” at the expense of the future and is just .500 for 2020 and then regresses ... he gets fired. If he makes no moves and preserves the top prospects ... they make .500 ... but the prospects fail in the future ... he gets fired.  The theme ... he will get fired at some point without sustained winning, so it is to his disadvantage to over reach for 2020.

Quote from Mike Turner on December 13, 2019, 8:29 am

Quote from fenn68 on December 13, 2019, 6:12 am

My comment is not about what Preller has done so far ... which I like. It is about where he could go (and give up) if he really followed the win or get fired threat.

In 2015, I still believe he was pressured by Mike Dee (and in retrospect Fowler) to make big moves ... and yes they did not have a deep pool of prospects but they did pick up a lot of payroll that they had to eat later ... arguable could have been used more productively. Bottom line is that the deals for veterans were “sub-optimal”. Turner for Myers, Grandal / Erlin for Kemp, and Fried / Mallex Smith for Upton did not work out all that well. Padres kept on losing.

In 2019, if the same pressure exists from Fowler, he now has the talent to deal to “chase” (and overpay) for veteran names as short term fixes but this time actually hurt the future.

I do blame Fowler for this situation ... zero upside for the organization to publicly make the “heads will role” statement. But as I said, don’t really think Preller has that pressure on him and will stay the course ... can make the argument if he doesn’t make “big moves” and they lose ... he gets fired. If he makes “big moves” and they lose ... he get fired. If he makes “big moves” at the expense of the future and is just .500 for 2020 and then regresses ... he gets fired. If he makes no moves and preserves the top prospects ... they make .500 ... but the prospects fail in the future ... he gets fired.  The theme ... he will get fired at some point without sustained winning, so it is to his disadvantage to over reach for 2020.

 

Quote from fenn68 on December 13, 2019, 6:12 am

My comment is not about what Preller has done so far ... which I like. It is about where he could go (and give up) if he really followed the win or get fired threat.

In 2015, I still believe he was pressured by Mike Dee (and in retrospect Fowler) to make big moves ... and yes they did not have a deep pool of prospects but they did pick up a lot of payroll that they had to eat later ... arguable could have been used more productively. Bottom line is that the deals for veterans were “sub-optimal”. Turner for Myers, Grandal / Erlin for Kemp, and Fried / Mallex Smith for Upton did not work out all that well. Padres kept on losing.

In 2019, if the same pressure exists from Fowler, he now has the talent to deal to “chase” (and overpay) for veteran names as short term fixes but this time actually hurt the future.

I do blame Fowler for this situation ... zero upside for the organization to publicly make the “heads will role” statement. But as I said, don’t really think Preller has that pressure on him and will stay the course ... can make the argument if he doesn’t make “big moves” and they lose ... he gets fired. If he makes “big moves” and they lose ... he get fired. If he makes “big moves” at the expense of the future and is just .500 for 2020 and then regresses ... he gets fired. If he makes no moves and preserves the top prospects ... they make .500 ... but the prospects fail in the future ... he gets fired.  The theme ... he will get fired at some point without sustained winning, so it is to his disadvantage to over reach for 2020.

I think Fowler had to say something though... it was pretty much the elephant in the room.  I know the moves backfired in 2015 but they served a purpose.  Re-energize the fan base.  We had been mired in mediocrity (and that's giving them credit) for so long.   I hadn't purchased anything Padres or baseball related for years.  I think the ownership group and Preller saw the farm system and MLB team for what it was... MLB team was just patch work and the farm system had an okay quantity of around 45-50 FV prospects... nothing to build a core out of.  Once Preller went out and made the acquisitions, I finally purchased my first jersey in a long time, purchased a MLB.tv subscription, went to a couple games when I was in San Diego, and made sure to go to games when they were here in Arizona.  It all ended out square peg round hole in the end but I think it served the purpose to re-energize a bored fan base.

Once they sold off everything and committed to a full rebuild, it was, "stick with us, we're going to build a winner".  We waited for three years and last year was supposed to be the 'competitive' year with this year being the for sure compete year.  Obviously the second half was a complete bomb and the fan base was disappointed at yet again... poor results.  Fowler, as the chairman to the business of San Diego Padres, had to address that Padres failed to meet expectations and things wouldn't remain the same if results aren't there.  In all likelihood he's probably just posturing just like AJP does in trade negotiations... say one thing and handle it completely different behind closed doors.  I don't think he'd fire AJP as he'd get hired instantly by another team.  AJP just has to show he can build a competent major league roster. The ownership group and AJP aren't stupid enough to completely blow up a high upside farm for short term results.  Best ownership group we've had in a long time.

Quote from BoosterSD on December 13, 2019, 10:52 am

Mike, do you ever go to Chilis on Litchfield Rd or the Lazy Palms next to the Wigwam? If so, we need to meet up for a beverage and chat Padre baseball.

Quote from BoosterSD on December 13, 2019, 11:01 am

Quote from Mike Turner on December 13, 2019, 8:29 am

I think Fowler had to say something though... it was pretty much the elephant in the room.  I know the moves backfired in 2015 but they served a purpose.  Re-energize the fan base.  We had been mired in mediocrity (and that's giving them credit) for so long.

I understand the moves that were made prior to the 2015. IIRC, didnt SD have the 4th best pitching staff in the NL, and the #1 bullpen? It was our offense that was pathetic. So, AJP didnt trash the pitching staff, and added bats. The major problem was getting 3 LFers and thinking they could handle defense. Anyway, we have the system now, and I dont see any of the trades just made that will kill us moving forward. Edwards IMO being the one that will makes us pout just a bit. But if Cronenworth is good, not as much.

So as long as the "untouchables" are kept, then we should be good moving forward prospect wise.

If I had to guess, Fowler wants to see .500+ ball this year, fighting for the Wild Card until the end of September, and he should be satisfied for 2020.

Quote from WindsorUK on December 13, 2019, 11:56 am

Quote from fenn68 on December 13, 2019, 6:12 am

My comment is not about what Preller has done so far ... which I like. It is about where he could go (and give up) if he really followed the win or get fired threat.

In 2015, I still believe he was pressured by Mike Dee (and in retrospect Fowler) to make big moves ... and yes they did not have a deep pool of prospects but they did pick up a lot of payroll that they had to eat later ... arguable could have been used more productively. Bottom line is that the deals for veterans were “sub-optimal”. Turner for Myers, Grandal / Erlin for Kemp, and Fried / Mallex Smith for Upton did not work out all that well. Padres kept on losing.

In 2019, if the same pressure exists from Fowler, he now has the talent to deal to “chase” (and overpay) for veteran names as short term fixes but this time actually hurt the future.

I do blame Fowler for this situation ... zero upside for the organization to publicly make the “heads will role” statement. But as I said, don’t really think Preller has that pressure on him and will stay the course ... can make the argument if he doesn’t make “big moves” and they lose ... he gets fired. If he makes “big moves” and they lose ... he get fired. If he makes “big moves” at the expense of the future and is just .500 for 2020 and then regresses ... he gets fired. If he makes no moves and preserves the top prospects ... they make .500 ... but the prospects fail in the future ... he gets fired.  The theme ... he will get fired at some point without sustained winning, so it is to his disadvantage to over reach for 2020.

How much better off would we be if Preller had made NONE of those trades?

Turner is an All Star caliber player, Fried a top of the rotation pitcher, Smith similar to Margot, Grandal All Star caliber.....

Whilst it was exciting at the time, looks bad in retrospect.

Quote from Brian Connelly on December 13, 2019, 12:31 pm

But most people in the organization believe general manager A.J. Preller still has another impact move or two up his sleeve. He spent the week laying the groundwork for a few trade possibilities, but nothing has come to fruition. At least not yet.

"There's conversations where we're trying to see if we can line up, and others where we have the ability to make a few trades," Preller said. "[Those are] decisions we've got to make."

There's nothing imminent on the trade front, sources said, but the Padres are clearly still looking to bolster their offense (OF, 2B).  It's possible they add to their rotation and bullpen as well.

"We'll see how the next few weeks play out," Preller said. "I don't think there's any area that we feel like we need to line up on something. But if we get an upgrade or something that fits our club a little bit different, we'll look at those different options."

... from Pads site.  That wording is interesting; it implies Pads have > 1 trade proposal they COULD do.  REALLY makes me wonder what they are!   Reading into it, sounds like in typical Preller fashion he has taken the temperature of every trade we can think of plus another ten-fold we haven't, knows where they all stand cost-wise, and really now has some luxury of waiting to see which trade scenarios move in the Pads direction when more FA's sign...

 

Quote from onlypads on December 13, 2019, 12:37 pm

Interesting indeed. I like that he is slowing down though -- we should be selective at this point.

Quote from JasonE135 on December 13, 2019, 1:22 pm

Quote from Brian Connelly on December 13, 2019, 12:31 pm

But most people in the organization believe general manager A.J. Preller still has another impact move or two up his sleeve. He spent the week laying the groundwork for a few trade possibilities, but nothing has come to fruition. At least not yet.

"There's conversations where we're trying to see if we can line up, and others where we have the ability to make a few trades," Preller said. "[Those are] decisions we've got to make."

There's nothing imminent on the trade front, sources said, but the Padres are clearly still looking to bolster their offense (OF, 2B).  It's possible they add to their rotation and bullpen as well.

"We'll see how the next few weeks play out," Preller said. "I don't think there's any area that we feel like we need to line up on something. But if we get an upgrade or something that fits our club a little bit different, we'll look at those different options."

... from Pads site.  That wording is interesting; it implies Pads have > 1 trade proposal they COULD do.  REALLY makes me wonder what they are!   Reading into it, sounds like in typical Preller fashion he has taken the temperature of every trade we can think of plus another ten-fold we haven't, knows where they all stand cost-wise, and really now has some luxury of waiting to see which trade scenarios move in the Pads direction when more FA's sign...

 

Like I said a week or so ago, i’m Sure he made 10-20 trade offers and is waiting to see if anybody bites. I am sure he offered Quantrill, Bolanos or  Morejon and teams countered with Gore or Patino hoping AJ was desperate. Now he will wait for all of the starting pitchers to come off of the market since they are going so quickly. There will be some teams that end up with empty stockings on Christmas. Perhaps by that time they will be willing to make a fair deal instead of insisting on ripping the Padres off. Stay strong AJ!