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Trade ideas
#1041 · December 12, 2019, 5:54 pm
Quote from Henry Silvestre on December 12, 2019, 3:44 pmQuote from MrPadre19 on December 12, 2019, 3:16 pmSo where do you suspect Morejon and Baez to pitch?
EP or Amarillo?
I just don’t want any of these guys in AAA but they can’t all pitch in Amarillo.
Gore-Patino-Morejon-Baez-Margavicius would be some kind of rotation in AA
I think Baez opens the year in SD's pen... Morejon AA/AAA...
Also on this Price deal... I like it as follows... Red Sox send Price + Benintendi to SDP for Myers + Joey + Naylor
RedSox save $17 mil and can move JBJ (to another team) to stay under the Lux tax-- however they need to fill some of those positions-- Myers/Naylor fill in 2 and can play 1B/LF/RF and a little CF if needed especially in that small park... Joey covers 1 spot (Porcello or Price) and should give the Red Sox a controllable cheap reliable #4 or #5
Why Pads do this-- trading for a SP or signing one in FA is going to require = or more $$ or prospects than this transaction, especially when you factor in a Marte type OF'er also being traded for-- we keep our specs since Bosox would want more MLB ready/proven controllable cheap pieces like Naylor and Joey.. Pads kill 2 birds with one stone-- get a middle to middle top SP in Price (elite SO/9, solid BB/9 and great swing and miss strike rate in 2019) and with Petco and away from those banboxes in the AL East-- Price would be 3.50 ERA or lower TORish 1/2 type for SDP, and we know what a bulldog he can be in the postseason-- looking at the Net +$12.5 mil vs Wil over the next 3 seasons-- not as bad when you factor Richards ($8mil) + Oliveras ($8,5 mil drops after 2020) in essence being +$4mil in additional spending power from where we are today-- and thats not counting Kinsler + Hedges + Garcia and Profar all expiring or likely traded between now and next offseason.. Thats an additional $13 + mil dollars available for 2021... Benintendi is cheaper, younger and an ascending talent that kills Righties vs Marte.... I like the Price swap with Myers BUT not without Benintendi added to the deal
I mean the alternative trade for Kubler (more ?? than Price) +$17mil with Indians not taking Myers back and costing us prospects
Marte +$11.5 million again at a high spec cost
Myers being move to accomodate nearly $30 mil coming our way.. more specs...
Save our specs, and use them to add Whit to Beni + Price
Save our specs and add Contreras to Whit + Beni and Price
Trade Hedges + Kinsler + a couple specs for Marsh OF LAA (AA)
Call it an offseason
The last 3 moves a lot less likely to be made if we add Marte and a Kubler or Boyd type SP the spec cost and money added (not to mention the unloading of Myers/spec cost and $$) would almost make it impossible to do the last 3 moves without whiping out a 1/3 to 1/2 of our top 30 specs
Besides a SP like Price a lot easier to trade than an OF like Myers... down the line.. just judging by interest on PRICE (a lot) vs Myers (No one)...
JUST SAY YES to Price + Benintendi
Just say NO to Price.......32 million dollars per yr thru 2022.....34 years old with more than enough arm injuries already. My guess is wherever he pitches this year he breaks down......again.
In the last 3 seasons...2017 thru 2019 he has missed 153 days with Elbow problems 3 times and a wrist problem but the good news for him was he got paid over 25 million dollars for all the days missed......making that deal and having him break down again given his medical history the last 3 seasons would be the end of AJ Preller
I'll PASS
#1042 · December 12, 2019, 5:57 pm
Morejon has top notch stuff. There is no doubt about that. It’s not that I want Morejon dealt, but I think his talent warrants him being a possible headliner in a deal and it’s an area of depth for the Padres. They can deal Morejon and still feel comfortable with young group of lefties remaining in the organization. Now maybe Morejons value has taken a hit because of his injury concerns? If that’s the case and he can’t be used as a headliner piece then it’s likely not in the Padres interest to deal him this offseason.
#1043 · December 12, 2019, 6:15 pm
Quote from TatisJr on December 12, 2019, 5:57 pmMorejon has top notch stuff. There is no doubt about that. It’s not that I want Morejon dealt, but I think his talent warrants him being a possible headliner in a deal and it’s an area of depth for the Padres. They can deal Morejon and still feel comfortable with young group of lefties remaining in the organization. Now maybe Morejons value has taken a hit because of his injury concerns? If that’s the case and he can’t be used as a headliner piece then it’s likely not in the Padres interest to deal him this offseason.
I was thinking the same thing. Boy it would have to be a heck of a deal. I would say, whoever the trade partner would be would have to take all of Myers' salary, plus a catcher, second baseman or outfielder that could step in right away.
#1044 · December 12, 2019, 6:29 pm
Hard NO on Price ... the cost / risk profile is way too high for the incremental value he might bring over likely Lucchesi as the last man out ... plus he creates 3 year of expensive blockage of the real future coming soon.
2019 Lucchesi 163.2 innings ... 4.18 ERA ... young, healthy on the rise and league minimum
2019 Price 107.1 innings .... 4.28 ERA ... turning 35, injuries piling up, $30MM/yr for 3 years.
Even money that Lucchesi has a better (or as good) season as Price.
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#1045 · December 12, 2019, 6:44 pm
Except for Gore and Patino ... Padres may be a year too early to get maximum value out of the other arms in a trade. No question on the upside potential but getting another team to see that potential AND give up equal value for a basically AA prospects is a long shot.
I will take the risk on them developing over using them for a short run fill that likely will not get the Padres a wild card in 2020 and will have not long term value to the club. If they develop ... maybe a better deal can be had in 2021.
#1046 · December 12, 2019, 6:55 pm
Random thought ... much has been suggested Preller’s job is on the line (I don’t buy it) but if that pushes him to make a string of moves such as adding this year’s versions of Norris, Kemp, Myers, and Shields at the expense of the future he will get fired too, just a year later. He has a 3 year contract (so will be paid) so which path is better for his long term survival.
I go with the longer term view and stay the course with the prospects. Don’t panic.
#1047 · December 12, 2019, 9:54 pm
Quote from MrPadre19 on December 12, 2019, 1:35 pmWe also have really just completely disregarded Baez and Morejon.
Surely we haven't completely moved on from them as Starters?
It seems like they have just been included as "throw ins" in everybodys' trade ideas.
I wonder what the Padres plans are for them for 2020-2021?
Strictly bullpen pieces?....surely not.
It was just recently reported they are going to be starting. There is a very real chance that AA Amarillo's O.D. rotation could be:
Gore, Patino, Morejon, Baez, Bolanos, Lawson :() Seriously, that rotation could beat a lot of MLB teams NOW over the course of a season series! If Sod Poodles don't win first 1/2 title in a division of 4 teams with that staff + Campusano, Trammell, Ona, Potts, likely Arias...
For the moment think AAA is: Margevicius, Nix, Bachar, Brett Kennedy, Jerry Keel, Emmanuel Ramirez. Not close to AA's staff, but > El Paso SP staff last year (if healthy)
#1048 · December 12, 2019, 10:12 pm
Quote from fenn68 on December 12, 2019, 6:55 pmRandom thought ... much has been suggested Preller’s job is on the line (I don’t buy it) but if that pushes him to make a string of moves such as adding this year’s versions of Norris, Kemp, Myers, and Shields at the expense of the future he will get fired too, just a year later. He has a 3 year contract (so will be paid) so which path is better for his long term survival.
I go with the longer term view and stay the course with the prospects. Don’t panic.
If Padres win only 72-73 games this year for any reason other than complete decimation by injuries, Preller absolutely positively gets fired.
FENN, I am scared too that Preller is "reaching" too soon. But I blame Fowler 100%. He is the one forcing the issue by essentially issuing a "get to .500" ultimatum. Preller is increasing the odds of that happening, but at what cost?
I advocated so hard for signing a FA SP b/c the guy would be there for years to come, AND free up prospect/s to trade vs. costing prospects to acquire. I had visions of a guy on a 5 year deal being the #1, then #2, then #3 etc SP over the life of the deal; that he would cement a rotation where no further SP moves would be required for 4-5 years, AND fully "unlocking" Joey or Q to be in a $ offsetting deal.
Instead, the Overriding theme so far is trading young, upside but erratic long control guys for more consistent, established, "better" BUT older (i.e. more likely to decline), more expensive, and shorter control vets. SO FAR it could be argued that most of the losses were expendable, but 1) any or all of these trades could go bad, and 2) it's getting harder to do a "next" trade without really giving up something that hurts, but almost feel compelled to do so, since so far down that road already.
If we end up in Limbo 2-3 years from now when these traded for guys leave; blame Fowler, not Preller.
#1049 · December 12, 2019, 11:31 pm
Quote from fenn68 on December 12, 2019, 6:55 pmRandom thought ... much has been suggested Preller’s job is on the line (I don’t buy it) but if that pushes him to make a string of moves such as adding this year’s versions of Norris, Kemp, Myers, and Shields at the expense of the future he will get fired too, just a year later. He has a 3 year contract (so will be paid) so which path is better for his long term survival.
I go with the longer term view and stay the course with the prospects. Don’t panic.
I don’t believe the 2015 offseason is a fair comparison to now for numerous reasons. Preller inherited a team with a good BP, one very good starter (Ross), two pretty good pitchers (Cash, Kennedy) and the teams best hitter was Seth Smith. IIRC, the farm system was considered average and not very deep. It was clear that team needed major additions to the offense and ownership wanted a splash. It’s my belief AJP viewed adding Kimbrel, Shields, Kemp, Myers, Uptons as a way to clear out a farm system of guys he didn’t draft and collect known quantities he thought he could flip later. It was an organizational reset. In the 2015 offseason his mandate was to generate excitement in the new regime and build a sustainable winner in any way he saw fit. AJP gets a lot of heat for dealing Trea Turner, Max, J. Ross, but I also remember fans being angry about Jesse Hahn, RJ Alvarez, Matt Wisler, Jace Peterson, Jake Bauers and Mallex Smith being traded. Those guys haven’t planned out yet. Despite the expensive mistakes he made in 15, AJP still ended up with Tatis Jr, Lauer, Naylor, Margot, Logan Allen and others as his compensation from 2o15 moves. I’ll take that. He was able to build a number 1 farm with those pieces. He also came very close to landing Luis Castillo for Cashner and almost signed Juan Soto. Imagine if AJP landed those 2. I don’t look at what happened in 2015 as some disaster. He reset the franchise and there were mistakes, but he definitely put us in much better shape overall.
Now in 2019 AJP has a young core...he built. He has two young superstars in Machado and Tatis. He has possible young stars in Paddack, Lamet, Gore, Patino. He’s got a lights out closer in Yates. The differences to adding to this roster in 2019 and 2014 roster are night and day. Go look at that 2014 roster and try not to laugh.
#1050 · December 13, 2019, 4:07 am
Pham + Grisham + Davies + Segura and Pomz are totally different players than Upton + Shields + Kemp and Kimbrel and Meyers and we haven't given up anything prospect wise that compares to what we gave up then ... They are youngish with some control making little $$$ .. Upton + Kemp + Shields + Kimbrel + Shields were like $90 mil plus .... The 5 this yr are like $33 mil combined.. This year feels like a "window opening" FOUNDATION play.. Then it felt like lets go on a 1 yr all in mode..very very different