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Trade ideas for 2019
#161 · July 23, 2019, 10:10 am
Quote from BoosterSD on July 23, 2019, 9:10 amSo I just read on MLBTR and listened for many days on XM how TAM is looking for a RHH for their line up. TAM is inquiring into Castellanos from DET. Would have to think that TAM would have real interest in Reyes who is cheaper and under control for a longer period of time. I realize that he holds value to SD, and is a fan favorite; however, with no DH until 2020, SD should look to move him for a better fielding LHH RF. If SD was to move Yates and Reyes to TAM for Sanchez and 2 or 3 other prospects, then SD could run Myers out to the OF for the balance of the year. Give him ABs in the hopes that he can turn it around enough to the point where he becomes somewhat moveable if at all possible.
Trading for TB prospects is always a challenge ... that is their life blood strategy even if they are contenders. Would think Sanchez would be a really difficult get. Preller may argue for a Yates for Sanchez even up deal (think Hand for Mejia). If Reyes (or Renfroe) was added ... agree TB has to include additional prospects making the deal from TB's view harder.
Since a Castellanos is just a rental, he would require only a marginal prospect or two (TB can handle that) and then they can deal with future options in the winter while preserving their key prospects. Plus Castellanos may be considered a better short run option if 2019 contention is the reason to deal now. In the winter, in this era, DH types are relatively easy to find at a low cost.
#162 · July 23, 2019, 10:15 am
Quote from BoosterSD on July 23, 2019, 10:05 amI was not inferring that Ray would be of interest to SD. Just know that he is a trade target of many teams at this point. And that IF AZ trades him, they maybe interested in additional young pieces for their rotation.
Yes, I know it would take some big pieces to send Myers to AZ. Although that is one of the places he does hit well. Obviously, I know that SD will not include Gore in a trade. However, Patino and others I would consider.
SD really needs to revamp the OF IMO.
I guess although I would like to move Myers (and his contract) .... just not really interested in move quality prospects just to clear his payroll ... it has been hard enough to build a quality base for future success and just adding payroll flexibility does not ensure adding better options to replace those prospects.
With Myers, would rather eat a major portion of his contact to save some money but more importantly preserve what they have worked so hard to develop ... a top level prospect stream.
Dead money is dead money.
#163 · July 23, 2019, 10:35 am
I guess I am neutral on trading Reyes or Renfroe since they are not all that dissimilar ... so maybe they deal the one that gets the best return (or don't trade either now if there is no real market and no decent return).
If you look at season offensive totals ... they are remarkable close in PA, BB%, K%, BABIP, AVG, OBP, with Renfroe a slight edge in SLG. However in the past 30 days, Reyes has shown noticeable improvement while Renfroe has regressed a tad. For wRC+ season: Renfroe 126; Reyes 115 ... 30 days: Reyes 127; Renfroe 112. Hot streaks .. cold streaks but neither overwhelming so could go either way.
Defensively, Renfroe is clearly better but prior to this year he was not all that good ... started out with good stats (season a dWAR +2.7) but in the last 30 days down to +0.7. Meanwhile, Reyes is not good but has progressed from a very bad -3.3 to a moderately bad -0.8. Nothing is going to make Reyes near Renfroe defensively but the gap may not be that compelling.
Not sure I am ready to give a corner back to Myers or move on to Naylor who the Padres really like as a hitter. Cordero is still in the wish and hope mode given his injuries and major holes in his game. IF the Padres want to contend in 2020 they may be better off with both Reyes and Renfroe staying put (for now).
#164 · July 23, 2019, 10:50 am
Quote from fenn68 on July 23, 2019, 10:35 amNot sure I am ready to give a corner back to Myers or move on to Naylor who the Padres really like as a hitter. Cordero is still in the wish and hope mode given his injuries and major holes in his game. IF the Padres want to contend in 2020 they may be better off with both Reyes and Renfroe staying put (for now).
I understand the reluctance in putting Myers back in full time as well. I really think he is a change of scenery guy. Just going to be hard to do with his current performance with the contract dollars ready to kick in next season. Thats why, IF, TAM was willing to do a Yates/Reyes for Sanchez and 2 MiL prospects I would do that in hoping that would give Myers roughly 60 games to get his "stick" together. Maybe trotting out to LF everyday for the balance of the year without Reyes or Renfroe forcing him to look over his shoulder would allow him to bounce back. Also, he seemed to do OK when he was batting in front of Machado earlier in the year. SOOO MAYBE, if we were to trot him out to LF and bat 2nd behind Tatis and in front of Machado, he can regain some resemblance of the guy we gave that contract.
#165 · July 23, 2019, 10:53 am
Quote from fenn68 on July 23, 2019, 10:35 amDefensively, Renfroe is clearly better but prior to this year he was not all that good ... started out with good stats (season a dWAR +2.7) but in the last 30 days down to +0.7. Meanwhile, Reyes is not good but has progressed from a very bad -3.3 to a moderately bad -0.8. Nothing is going to make Reyes near Renfroe defensively but the gap may not be that compelling
I know you are a bit more of a new stat guy than I am. I prefer the "eye" test when it comes to defense, I think Renfroe is a lot better than Reyes, and worlds better than Naylor. If I knew the DH was coming to the NL next year, then I would not entertain trading Reyes. However, if you are correct and the DH is not coming until 2021 at the earliest, that makes Reyes and Naylor both trade fodder IMO.
And I cant put my finger on it, but something about Naylors swing makes me cringe. For whatever reason, I dont know if he will have sustained success in the bigs. He makes me confused.
#166 · July 23, 2019, 12:11 pm
Part of the issue will be the Padres getting very close to be a legit wild card contender next season .... and as such they need two productive corner OF and hard to bump the two incumbents (Renfroe and Reyes) when there is no reason to have confidence in the internal alternatives for 2020. The return to deal either one would have to be immediately impactful (and most like require either to be the second piece of a deal of Yates) ... Padres are sort of past dealing for longer range prospects unless they are moving shorter term control roster pieces.
Considering that (and my doubt that TB would deal Sanchez), might the Padres use the Yates + Reyes (or Renfroe) pairing to get Tucker from Houston who may have similar add targets. Tucker is higher ranked and in AAA ... should help immediately. LHH RF and arguably no more risk as a prospect than Sanchez.
As for Naylor, looks like a piece to add to a bigger trade ... just not a good OF fit and with no DH or 1B need in SD is not a big plus. Although his swing is not pretty at time, he somehow seems to make contact and hit in the clutch ... a good offensive sign for a very young prospect in the ML.
Looking at 2020, hard to see getting the beneficial return from any of these pieces.
#167 · July 23, 2019, 12:42 pm
Best thing for Padres is that Myers comes into next Spring Training on a mission.
I find it hard to believe at his age he has "completely lost it".
I wish we could get him to EP and let him play everyday.
That would be a boost to his confidence and could make all the difference.
Or figure out a way to trade him in a deal to Col. for Blackmon.
While Blackmons splits are pretty horrific if the cost was nominal and they took Myers I'd rather have Blackmon over the next 2 seasons than Myers.
#168 · July 23, 2019, 7:09 pm
Looked at Blackman’s career numbers .... .737 OPS for a corner OF is barely average considering Myers’ is .762 for his total career. Then given his proven Coors Field stats can’t see the Rockies moving him for less than a load of quality prospects coupled with salary relief (they do need to pay Arenado).
#169 · July 23, 2019, 7:25 pm
In thinking about adds for 2020 ... and being realistic that Myers’ contract is not going to be moved given his performance .... the Padres payroll has to start being considered. Give or take the Padres if they do nothing will be around $120MM going into next season .... never heard any suggestion that they would go even to $130MM unless it was the “last piece” needed. Padres need more than one piece.
So, forget any of those high profile SP (except maybe Syndergaard who at least would be around for more than 2020).
Not sure the fixation on adding SP when the offense has been and continues to be the a major problem ... and no short term help coming. Frankly they need a major upgrade in the corner OF slot(s). Renfroe and Reyes ... as we highlighted before are poor with RISP ... but also are among the worst OBP for regular OF. Yes, they are near the top with HR for OF ... but other than that ... adding little value.
Problem: have no idea who could be available (at what price) to improve the situation at last from a veteran perspective for 2020. Maybe Preller needs to press harder for near term prospect OF trades.
#170 · July 23, 2019, 7:35 pm
A number of teams are looking for LHRP but unwilling to pay the price for the veteran elite. Should the Padres consider putting Matt Strahm into the mix as a trade option?
There has to be enough scouts that have seen him last season (and early this season) to love his stuff and he is low cost / long control making him a good target.
Padres have added Morejon and Allen to the pen, Castillo will be back for next season ... 3 LHRP options and still not considering Erlin or Wieck as insurance. The starting crop looks to have passed Strahm as a SP option.
Either by himself or in a package .... he could generate a good return for the future. Something to consider.