Quote from BoosterSD on July 6, 2019, 3:13 pm

I think it would be brilliant to attach Myers and the majority of his contract to get Yates. Something brought up last week by Casey Stern on MLBXM.

Quote from fenn68 on July 7, 2019, 6:08 am

As we stand the Padres are only 3 games in the loss column out of the 2nd Wild Card slot and 4 games out of the 1st Wild Card slot ... that is too close to be sellers right now BUT

Including the Padres there are 9 teams within 4 games in the loss column of the two Wild Card spots ... then add the 3 Division Leaders and 12 of the 15 NL teams are still in the race .... that is too congested (lowering the odds of successs and limiting the active sellers) to be buyers right now.

If you consider that about 7 AL teams in still in the playoff hunt (realistically) that leaves very few sellers who know that and jack up the price (if those potential sellers have any sought after trade chips).

Good chance the trade season may lag until the last minute to get a clearer picture of buyers / sellers ... and reflect new injuries. The first two weeks after the All-Star break will be critical.

Quote from MrPadre19 on July 7, 2019, 9:36 am

I want the Playoffs as much(probably more) as everyone,but choosing to become sellers may be critical to next years success.

Holding onto Yates,Kinsler,and to a lesser extent Myers(because trading his salary makes sense either way we go) to try and win this year,and missing,would be devastating IMO.

If we can get a starting Centerfielder or Starting pitcher for the next few years for Yates we just have to do it.

We also need to make room for Urias so he can get through any growing pains “this year” soon.

I realize having Yates next year would be a good thing....but does anyone expect him to be this good next year?

His value to a Playoff contender like Atlanta(among others) this year will never be higher.

I am confident that we could build a BP next year with what we already have....or even add a guy or two....that would be as good as this year or better without Yates included.

 

Quote from fenn68 on July 7, 2019, 10:35 am

Well at least 3 weeks of a lot of "if" conditions.

1. IF the Padres are legitimately in the Wild Card race heading into July 31, there is no way the organization will pass up the opportunity to make the playoffs after all these years of losing (important for the owners, fans, and young roster players to get that development experience leading into 2020, plus just supportive of all the current players). Maybe not buyers but likely not sellers.
2. IF the Padres are out of the race ... realistically only Yates has significant trade value of the older, short control players. The other bubble players such as Kinsler and Stammen may be wanted by someone but hardly more than Cash (which would be OK). I will assume the Padres will not put Renfroe, Paddack, Lucchesi, et.al on the market for a prospect that carries high risk of failure and is not going to be key factor in 2020.
3. IF the Padres decide they would deal Yates, is there a buyer with the right asset and is that team willing to deal that asset? I would expect the Padres to hold for a Hand type deal (1 elite prospect in return) vs. a Kimbrel type deal (4 prospects not near ML ready). Farm system is too good to care about volume shifting the focus to adding a quality piece.
4. IF the Padres target is an elite prospect (prospects are what a contender will give) what will help them in the near term ... CF and maybe a real elite SP although getting an elite SP prospect for 1.3 years of  Yates might be hard to get. That sort of distills the options to Atlanta for Pache or Waters (both Top 100 CF in AA .. so could be factors in 2020).
5. IF Atlanta has a RP as that important trade deadline add and IF they can't find a quality option at a lesser cost would they give up one of those two? Would a trade for another quality closer using one of their long list of high quality SP prospects serve them better in the long run?
6. IF the Padres get multiple offers for Yates (they will) but none include that elite prospect as the return ... are they better off keeping Yates to support a 2020 run (even with regression risk) vs. adding non-elite prospects to a top farm system.

From my view the Padres are not in a good RP position with or without Yates given to compete at the highest level (on a team that scoring is a challenge) have 8 quality RP is important. Maybe Wingenter, Perdomo, Castillo, and Strahm can give a good base but a lot of projection on the prospects for the other 4. Padres have not been successful this year in finding RP quality depth (see Maton, Wisler, Stock, et.al) so not sure 2020 will be that different.

My conclusion Yates only goes if the Padres are both out of contention and that singular "elite" prospect is the return. Might boil down to Atlanta (Pache or Waters) with the outside chance (unlikely) of MINN with LHH OF Kirilloff in AA.

Quote from fenn68 on July 7, 2019, 3:26 pm

Should add that I really doubt the Atlanta would deal either Pache or Waters for Yates. (MINN would not deal Kirilloff either for Yates) ... neither bullpen is that bad and probably would opt of a less costly (in terms of prospects) option ... even a one and done.

Would like one of them but have to temper a bit the enthusiasm for AA prospects ... might be great but no guarantee ... consider MLB Pipelines rating for Hit / Power / Run / Arm / Fielding for the following:

55 / 45 / 70 / 70 / 70 .... #14 (2019) Pache (AA, 20)

60 / 45 / 65 / 50 / 60 ... #25 (2015) Margot (AA, 20)

50 / 50 / 60 / 60 / 60 ... #44 (2019) Waters (AA, 20)

Prove nothing but does suggest not getting that much in love (and overvalue) a prospect. From a projection standpoint this would suggest Margot would be the best hitter of the group ... oops! All three would be plus runners and fielders (not sure the value of the differences).

In one respect Tatis has spoiled us to having a 20 year old in AA jump to  the ML and become an instant star ... not the norm. So even IF either Pache or Waters develop ... will they be better than Margot and when will they deliver that potential? Probably not in 2020 or optimistically in 2021.

Sort of a reason to keep Margot and Jankowski around even if the Padres added one of them just to have a legit CF option until they know what they got.

Quote from Brian Connelly on July 8, 2019, 11:46 am

Quote from David Nevin on July 7, 2019, 9:36 am

I want the Playoffs as much(probably more) as everyone,but choosing to become sellers may be critical to next years success.

Holding onto Yates,Kinsler,and to a lesser extent Myers(because trading his salary makes sense either way we go) to try and win this year,and missing,would be devastating IMO.

If we can get a starting Centerfielder or Starting pitcher for the next few years for Yates we just have to do it.

We also need to make room for Urias so he can get through any growing pains “this year” soon.  YES!  Agree completely on this point.

I realize having Yates next year would be a good thing....but does anyone expect him to be this good next year?

His value to a Playoff contender like Atlanta(among others) this year will never be higher.

I am confident that we could build a BP next year with what we already have....or even add a guy or two....that would be as good as this year or better without Yates included.??

Well, it's obvious the Yates talk won't stop till August 1st now...

Contending teams trade PROSPECT/S for established MLB players.  The Padres are a clearly (at least) "edge of" in playoff contention team this year with intent to be fully "in it" next season.  They have by MLB.com TEN top 100 prospects (I am including CJ Abrams); this is NOT including "graduated" top 100 guys Tatis, Paddack, and Mejia!   Gaining any Prospect even in the #50 overall range simply isn't that relevant to next year's team.  So short of getting a Mackenzie Gore caliber (top 10 range) prospect like Forrest Whitley--not happening-- I just don't see a midseason trade valuable enough to the Pads to make sense doing.

So the only idea I'm warming up to a little is the concept of packaging Yates with Myers to offload Myers' contract.  Myers is only making 3 MM salary this year, so works even for teams on a budget with 2019 total payroll.  Issue becomes how much will another team "overpay" what they feel current value is for Myers for the ability to get Yates for 1+ years well below market.  Logic says at best they'll pay "market value" for Yates, although maybe a little more due to not having to give up anything significant in trade...

...  so what is 2019 & 2020 seasons of Yates actually worth (prorated?)... 15 MM each?  = +5 MM in 2019, maybe + 7 MM in 2020?  So 12 MM "towards" Myers plus whatever they think Myers' worth for 3+ years...  to me, unless you get a team to eat half of Myers 60+ MM I wouldn't even consider it, because could do the same deal conceptually by attaching a prospect (NOT Gore!!!) to Myers...

BUT freeing up say 17 MM next year (10 to Myers + 7 to Yates not paying his yr 3 arb salary) does create payroll room/flexibility to fill needs NEXT season by FA or trade... but of course one of the most pressing needs would be Closer!

Bottom line:  Unless Yates' trade value is > than what Brad Hand's was last year (highly unlikely).... keep him.

Quote from BoosterSD on July 8, 2019, 12:08 pm

Bcon, you are spot on. Trading Yates has to accomplish one of two items. Getting a spot of need for 2020, high end RP, LH Of with some pop,or CF. Or, getting rid of Myers contract, and allowing Preller to redistribute that money to a spot of need. Looking at 2019 season end FA, I dont see a CF thats an improvement over what we have, so for me, I want a CFer thats ready by mid 2020 at the latest in trade for Yates.

Quote from MrPadre19 on July 8, 2019, 1:50 pm

The Padres are in the unusual position(for the Padres) of only needing a couple very specific upgrades going forward.

A high OBP centerfielder and Starting Pitching/Bullpen pieces.

Even then...we have the Starters coming at minimum salary and probably could fill the bullpen as well from within.

So Yates isn't going anywhere IMO unless we get a major league ready starting CF(Inciarte/Eaton type) or a top of the rotation starter.

Obviously anyone interested in Yates for this season and next isn't gonna give up a TOR starter.

Plus why would we trade our best BP piece in order to get other BP pieces in return?

So it pretty much comes down to a CF who can lead off that is an obvious upgrade over Margot.

Not too many of those around but I do still think Atl. makes the best sense if anything does.

 

Quote from MrPadre19 on July 8, 2019, 1:51 pm

I saw where the Twins inquired about Yates and that the Padres were scouting their AAA team.

Do they have anyone who would interest AJ?