Quote from MrPadre19 on July 16, 2019, 9:42 am

This combined with the firm Trade deadline will make it tough on Preller.

He can't rely on August trades anymore.

He has 2 weeks to decide if we are buyers.....

Quote from fenn68 on July 16, 2019, 10:42 am

Quote from David Nevin on July 16, 2019, 9:42 am

This combined with the firm Trade deadline will make it tough on Preller.

He can't rely on August trades anymore.

He has 2 weeks to decide if we are buyers.....

And tough on almost all the GMs. MLBTradeRumors (or MLB.com) had a good piece on trade dynamic changes (potentially) this year with the hard deadline.

The guess is the Sunday before the deadline (on a Wednesday) will start the frenzy ... especially with working through deals including larger contracts takes time and if the negotiation fails the time to move on to a secondary deal.

Also, a real gut check on how to move those larger contracts (return) with that window the only window. The article also noted that only 2 teams (Boston and Cubs .. I think) are currently over the luxury tax threshold and only a few are really "close" ... so moving contracts could be on the agenda.

If no real change in the standings by then ... if all the potential contenders (in their minds) go buyer, then the limited sellers (with even more limited decent trade chips) should make out like bandits in the return .... if most of the potential contenders go seller, then the reduced buyers should get better deals and the sellers get less of a return.

If you don't believe SD will get a playoff slot (even with a trade deadline add) ... have to hope every other potential contender goes buyer ... and Preller goes seller. That should up the return on Yates and likely create market for the likes of Stammen, Kinsler, Hedges, Renfroe, Reyes, et. al, on yeh and even Myers (maybe in a bundle). If the future is what we have to look forward to (2020+), could be a good opportunity to do some value housecleaning of short term control, older, higher salary pieces.

Quote from MrPadre19 on July 16, 2019, 10:53 am

Ender Inciarte is about to be activated by the Braves so they will have quite a decision to make as well.

Do they change the dynamic of the team that is working right now?

Who do they send down/DFA to make room for Inciarte?

Do they let him play a couple weeks and then shop him?

I have a feeling they aren't parting with Pache or Waters....but because of those guys they may just take the best offer they can get for Inciarte.

Maybe we turn into sellers and work a deal for Yates which includes Inciarte and an arm like Anderson or Wright?

 

Quote from fenn68 on July 16, 2019, 12:11 pm

Inciarte's future will be interesting. Up through 2017 was outstanding both offensively  and defensively ... dipped a bit in 2018 (but still good) then the lumbar strain this year has him down to a line of 218/300/323 (not good) and has not exactly been hitting during his rehab. Bundle that with some concern (maybe minor) that a back issue may be reoccurring and a contract at $7.7MM (2020), $8.7MM (2021), and a $1.025MM (2022 buyout). He is only 28 so age should not be an issue.

Not sure why Atlanta would move him given his potential talent (more than Joyce or Culbertson) and considering in 2020 Markakis is a FA (toss up at his age resigning and regression) and Donaldson is a FA (Riley to 3B and very unlikely they resign Donaldson at his price). For playoff team gambling that one of Pache or Waters makes the 2020 roster and has impact is a big gamble (more likely late 2020 or 2021). Plus, with potentially Markakis and Riley out of the OF ... Acuna to a corner begs a CF and another corner OF (especially if Camargo is super - utility).

Would seem better to option Riley (has been really struggling lately) and buy time to let 2019-20 sort.

However, IF SD offered Yates, that would get Atlanta engaged BUT although SD may want to add Inciarte's talent ... not sure he is worth Yates (even if a minor league pitcher is added to SD) and adding Inciarte's contract could do a lot to inhibit other potential moves.

IF Atlanta wants to move Inciarte (and his contract) ... SD maybe be still in play without using Yates. SD has an OF glut (per some) and Atlanta will need some more OF support in 2020. Maybe a deal (with other parts) can be constructed around Renfroe or Reyes to fill a longer term corner OF role along with impact in 2019. Alternatively, if getting rid of Inciarte's contract is important to Atlanta .... SD takes the contract and gives them a minor leaguer such as A.Allen or Torrens ... think ATL may need catching help in 2020-21.

Not sure if any "contenders" are seeking a CF such as Inciarte (and his contract) ... so SD may be able to strike a good deal IF Atlanta really wants to move on from him.

Quote from fenn68 on July 16, 2019, 12:44 pm

Another challenge for Preller is the schedule between now and the deadline. Consider

3 games with Miami (34-50) worst in NL

3 games with Cubs (50-44)

3 games with Mets (42-51) second worst in NL

3 games with Giants (45-49) still worse than SD

2 games with Baltimore (28-65) worst in AL but by then Preller will have to have committed to buyer / seller mode.

IF the Padres don't dominate with that schedule ... easy seller considering the August / Sept schedules have the "better teams" rolling in. Padres need a cushion built out of this schedule.

Quote from 84padres on July 16, 2019, 2:31 pm

Any chance we can entice  Bochy into a return  engagement?  He is the best manager we've ever had and he is pulling off a minor  miracle  this year with a terrible  Giants team. I think it would be a major upgrade over Green. I saw where he gets 6 mil , hell give him 7 .  I would love to see him end up here. I know he is a lock for the hall of fame but imagine that he could take us to a title , he would go down as one of the greatest  ever.

Quote from MrPadre19 on July 16, 2019, 3:40 pm

I wish the next two weeks were games against the Giants,D Backs and Rox.

Then we would know.

Quote from fenn68 on July 16, 2019, 4:23 pm

Quote from David Nevin on July 16, 2019, 3:40 pm

I wish the next two weeks were games against the Giants,D Backs and Rox.

Then we would know.

Even more enlightening would be if they were against the leading contenders for the wild Card .... WASH, PHIL, StL, and MILW.

There is part of me that would like the Padres to win a wild card slot. However, not sure that I would make any moves that hurt the future to achieve a shot at a one game play in. Not sure this team can match up with a good probability to win against the other wild card's #1 SP. Then going against the LAD (likely) in a 5 game set would be lottery odds of winning 3.

The heart wants the Padres to go in and win ... the brain says don't do anything stupid to hurt the future chances just  for that quick high (IF the moves even result in the wild card slot).

Quote from MrPadre19 on July 16, 2019, 4:25 pm

3-0 Marlins in 1st inning.

Really?