Quote from fenn68 on July 14, 2019, 10:17 am

Given the current roster and near term prospects .... think the pitching has a good chance to right itself from within (better chance than trying to deal for pitching when about every other team wants to deal for pitching).

Agree on OBP but recently think the issue is the power guys are not hitting in players on base when they need to. Yes, a lot of solo HR (probably when the pitchers relax) but with runners on base they fail more often than not. Consider the last 30 days:

1. Tatis (91 AB).... 434 OBP
2. Hosmer (98) ... 327 OBP
3. Machado (94) ... 370 OBP

but

4. Renfroe (81).... 9 HR / 14 RBI ... so only +5 over his HR (not sure how many came from non-HR)

5. Reyes (69) ... 6 HR / 9 RBI ... only +3 over his HR

The top 3 are setting the table but the 4-5 are choking on the meal. Maybe we are getting too enamored with the HR stat and not looking at the real productivity of Renfroe and Reyes?

Would not move the top 3 down BUT Machado (11 HR / 25 RBI .. +14), Hosmer (3 HR / 22 RBI .. +19), and Tatis (6 HR / 16 RBI .. +10) all seem to be more productive with clutch / situational hitting.

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Actually in the last 30 ... others have been getting on base down the line-up: Margot (.413) and Garcia (.400), even Mejia is at .315.

The real drags are Hedges, Myers, Naylor, and Kinsler.

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Makes me a bit more flexible in moving either Renfroe or Reyes if a more productive corner OF can be inserted. Maybe some other team gets blinded by the shiny HR stats and will over pay.

 

Quote from fenn68 on July 15, 2019, 7:42 am

After Renfroe struck out with the bases loaded yesterday ... did some research and on one website (don't recall which) they had a listing of NL players who left the most runners in scoring position as of July 13th.

Renfroe was tied for leaving the most runners in scoring position ... after yesterday may he is now #1.  Renfroe was pretty high on the list too. Sort of supports the idea that is is not the OBP ahead of them but their clutch / situational hitting.

Also, checked some of Renfroe's analytics and the other Padre starters  .... he has the lowest opposite field hitting % and the highest fly ball % ... that clear bias may allow opposing pitchers work him more effectively in run scoring situations. High K rate ... high fly ball rate (2 of the 3 natural outcomes) but maybe those fly balls only become HR when the pitcher relaxes in non pressure situations.

Quote from MrPadre19 on July 15, 2019, 3:26 pm

This seems to fly in the face of perception.

If you asked any Padre fan which player comes through the most when the game is on the line they would mostly say Renfroe.

He’s had so many clutch,go ahead hits this year.

I guess you can “seem” clutch because of a few memorable home runs even when you’re not.

 

Quote from Alex Tamayo on July 15, 2019, 3:47 pm

Quote from David Nevin on July 15, 2019, 3:26 pm

This seems to fly in the face of perception.

If you asked any Padre fan which player comes through the most when the game is on the line they would mostly say Renfroe.

He’s had so many clutch,go ahead hits this year.

I guess you can “seem” clutch because of a few memorable home runs even when you’re not.

 

Like saying Reyes is not clutch because for a couple of months he only hit solo HRs, when in reality he had just a few chances with men on base hitting in the 2 spot, and then say, well he is hitting well because he has Machado protecting him, and then they put Myers in the 2nd spot only to strike out every time,

Quote from fenn68 on July 15, 2019, 4:36 pm

Quote from David Nevin on July 15, 2019, 3:26 pm

This seems to fly in the face of perception.

If you asked any Padre fan which player comes through the most when the game is on the line they would mostly say Renfroe.

He’s had so many clutch,go ahead hits this year.

I guess you can “seem” clutch because of a few memorable home runs even when you’re not.

 

That is probably the issue with both Renfroe and Reyes ... the HR is more of a memorable spectacle that a 2 run single to the opposite field and a couple of high profile big hits overshadows what may be a greater number of failures / lost opportunities. (TV keeps highlighting Renfroe's walk of HR to keep it in front of us).

Bottom line is that both have left a lot of runners in scoring position (high on the list in the NL) ... so can't be from lack of opportunity. Plus those last 30 days are very worrisome from an RBI standpoint.

Unfortunately Myers and Naylor don't seem better ... so ????

Side: update on the 30 day look ... Tatis - Hosmer - Machado are getting on base but both Renfroe and Reyes are at 6 HR and only 9 RBI out of the 4-5 slots. Actually both Hosmer (with only 3 HR) and Machado are doing all the heavy lifting of driving in runs (thanks Tatis and the #9 hitter I guess.)

Maybe Preller should be looking for a solid 4-5 hitter and RBI bat for a corner OF spot rather than the focus on a SP.

Quote from Cptjack on July 16, 2019, 1:55 am

Renfroe has a .967 OPS in high leverage. Reyes has a .404 OPS in high leverage.

Renfroe has an 1.105 OPS late and close . Reyes has a .583 OPS late and close.

Perception matches reality just fine.

Quote from MrPadre19 on July 16, 2019, 3:14 am

BA RISP:

Renfroe  .186

Reyes .167

Late and Close doesn’t match up with the topic at hand.........runners in scoring position.

 

 

Quote from fenn68 on July 16, 2019, 6:47 am

Hedges back ... A.Allen back to EP.

Quote from fenn68 on July 16, 2019, 7:13 am

Surprising "race" in the NL West as we close in on 60% of the season done:

AZ ........ 47-47 (.500)

COLO ... 46-48 (.489)

SD ........ 45-48 (.484)

SF ......... 45-49 (.479) on a hot run making up a lot of ground in the past few weeks

Oh, probably should mention the LAD ... 63-33 (.656) with a 15 game lead over AZ.

Although the bundle of 4 teams struggling to play .500 ball is out of the NL West race ... surprising all are within 3 games of the wild card slot with a lot of games to go. Not sure about these teams performance against the LAD but good chance they are not closer to (or in) the wild card is their record vs. the LAD. A bit of a note on the quality of all the NL teams.

Maybe we can conclude a lot of teams don't have a chance for a playoff slot in the NL but each GM has their own view and agenda and that will impact the trade strategies down to the wire. Actually only Miami is clearly out but even the next worst record goes to NYM and they are only 5.5 games out of the wild card but have a compelling SP staff to close the gap (problem is they have to pass a lot of other teams).

A lot of games remain for hot streaks, cold streaks, and injuries to shuffle the teams .... has to be hard for GMs to just blow off competing for the playoffs this early / this close ... fans (attendance), ownership (want results), team veterans (want to win now and care little about the future and could loose motivation), and most importantly their own futures. Maybe not "buyers" but maybe not "sellers" either and just hold.

Next two weeks will have a lot of impact on all these teams as "buyers" or "sellers" ... as of now ????