Forum
Regular Season thread.
Quote from Henry Silvestre on October 2, 2019, 7:55 amQuote from fenn68 on October 2, 2019, 7:27 amI guess this should be considered a positive .... although the team record really has not followed (maybe an issue with Green and the analytics department). Using team WAR as the measure:
Offense:
2017 .... 7.0 (30th) ... add Hosmer, then
2018 ... 8.0 (27th) ... add Machado and Tatis (the biggest boost), then
2019 ... 13.4 (19th)
Pitching:
2017 ... 7.9 (27th) ... add Lucchesi, Lauer, and Yates to the pen
2018 ... 12.4 (20th) ... add Paddack
2019 ... 15.5 (14th)
Clearly slower improvement than anyone wants BUT there is improvement that sets the basis for the next jump forward ...maybe.
Thats a really good sign -- slow and steady is the way to build the foundation,,, with the rebuild done and the WINDOW opening.. 28.9 WAR to 40 WAR a definete reality... Healthy Tatis Jr (even with regression) +2, Machado (home/rhp splits back to normal) +1 or +2, Myers to +1, Paddack improvement +1.. Urias and Mejia full seasons +1 +1 everything else status quo... thats 35.9... add a SP stud 3.5 to 5 WAR and just a tiny improvement in one OF spot... and 40+ WAR (playoff team ) right there for us.... and thats not factoring a Gore (Paddack like) boost or Lamet or Richards doing anything more than they did in 2019... we are in the cusp.. record be damned...
Quote from fenn68 on October 2, 2019, 7:27 amI guess this should be considered a positive .... although the team record really has not followed (maybe an issue with Green and the analytics department). Using team WAR as the measure:
Offense:
2017 .... 7.0 (30th) ... add Hosmer, then
2018 ... 8.0 (27th) ... add Machado and Tatis (the biggest boost), then
2019 ... 13.4 (19th)
Pitching:
2017 ... 7.9 (27th) ... add Lucchesi, Lauer, and Yates to the pen
2018 ... 12.4 (20th) ... add Paddack
2019 ... 15.5 (14th)
Clearly slower improvement than anyone wants BUT there is improvement that sets the basis for the next jump forward ...maybe.
Thats a really good sign -- slow and steady is the way to build the foundation,,, with the rebuild done and the WINDOW opening.. 28.9 WAR to 40 WAR a definete reality... Healthy Tatis Jr (even with regression) +2, Machado (home/rhp splits back to normal) +1 or +2, Myers to +1, Paddack improvement +1.. Urias and Mejia full seasons +1 +1 everything else status quo... thats 35.9... add a SP stud 3.5 to 5 WAR and just a tiny improvement in one OF spot... and 40+ WAR (playoff team ) right there for us.... and thats not factoring a Gore (Paddack like) boost or Lamet or Richards doing anything more than they did in 2019... we are in the cusp.. record be damned...
Quote from Henry Silvestre on October 2, 2019, 8:04 amQuote from David Nevin on October 1, 2019, 1:37 pmQuote from Cptjack on October 1, 2019, 10:40 amQuote from TatisJr on October 1, 2019, 9:45 amI mean Henry’s suggestion on Boyd likely isn’t enough.
If that trade doesn't get Boyd it's because the Tigers are completely inept and are drastically overvaluing him.
Not only do 3 or 4 for 1 trades happen it's my opinion that's exactly what we need to do.
We need to open roster spots.
We need "quality" over quantity.
We don't need small improvements in 4 or 5 places...we need "big" improvements in 1 or 2.
So let's not get Boyd for 1 major leaguer and 3 minor prospects....lets get someone "like" Clevinger(just a name i pulled outta my fantasies) for 2 or 3 really good prospects.
This team is at the point it needs difference makers.....one in the rotation and one in the outfield may be all we need to push this thing to the next level.
100% right... not only do we need to ship 3-4-5 players for 1 type deal we need multiple.. we have like 60 legit prospects most org have like 25-30 if that... our system is so deep its nice and scary.. think of it this way Reyes could have been anybody's Rule V pickup just 2 years ago as Padres were up against the 40 man roster then.. well 2021 and 2022 have like 50 players from here to then who are 40 man roster worthy + 51 currentely on it now.. thats 91 players -- 50 FIFTY of which need to be moved ast least and thats not with players coming here so that number is closer to 70 SEVENTY... or we could lose a bunch of them... so maybe not a straight 4 for 1 -- but maybe some 4 for 2 (with one being a 40 man type and 1 being a 1yr Pro at A ball who can be protected /developed without the 40 man pressure,,,
Quote from David Nevin on October 1, 2019, 1:37 pmQuote from Cptjack on October 1, 2019, 10:40 amQuote from TatisJr on October 1, 2019, 9:45 amI mean Henry’s suggestion on Boyd likely isn’t enough.
If that trade doesn't get Boyd it's because the Tigers are completely inept and are drastically overvaluing him.
Not only do 3 or 4 for 1 trades happen it's my opinion that's exactly what we need to do.
We need to open roster spots.
We need "quality" over quantity.
We don't need small improvements in 4 or 5 places...we need "big" improvements in 1 or 2.
So let's not get Boyd for 1 major leaguer and 3 minor prospects....lets get someone "like" Clevinger(just a name i pulled outta my fantasies) for 2 or 3 really good prospects.
This team is at the point it needs difference makers.....one in the rotation and one in the outfield may be all we need to push this thing to the next level.
100% right... not only do we need to ship 3-4-5 players for 1 type deal we need multiple.. we have like 60 legit prospects most org have like 25-30 if that... our system is so deep its nice and scary.. think of it this way Reyes could have been anybody's Rule V pickup just 2 years ago as Padres were up against the 40 man roster then.. well 2021 and 2022 have like 50 players from here to then who are 40 man roster worthy + 51 currentely on it now.. thats 91 players -- 50 FIFTY of which need to be moved ast least and thats not with players coming here so that number is closer to 70 SEVENTY... or we could lose a bunch of them... so maybe not a straight 4 for 1 -- but maybe some 4 for 2 (with one being a 40 man type and 1 being a 1yr Pro at A ball who can be protected /developed without the 40 man pressure,,,
Quote from MrPadre19 on October 2, 2019, 10:39 amYep....and I also think of it this way.
Our system is so good and so deep that our, say,25th best guy isn't getting the true recognition(value) that he should be worth.
So we need to trade prospects in our top 20 or so to get full value....then over the next two years the guys left will take their place and hopefully gain the value they actually should already have.
Am I making sense?
Lets use Hudson Head as an example...right now he is our 20th rated prospect.
If we trade him now the other team will be getting "our" 20th best guy and we will be getting that type of value.
When obviously if he were in the Mariners system he would probably be a top 5 prospect.
I realize some Scouts know these guys "true" value but many don't ever see them play.
Cantillo is another I think we would be crazy to trade "now".
We don't need to be trading guys "down" in our rankings.....let's let those guys build more value first.
Yep....and I also think of it this way.
Our system is so good and so deep that our, say,25th best guy isn't getting the true recognition(value) that he should be worth.
So we need to trade prospects in our top 20 or so to get full value....then over the next two years the guys left will take their place and hopefully gain the value they actually should already have.
Am I making sense?
Lets use Hudson Head as an example...right now he is our 20th rated prospect.
If we trade him now the other team will be getting "our" 20th best guy and we will be getting that type of value.
When obviously if he were in the Mariners system he would probably be a top 5 prospect.
I realize some Scouts know these guys "true" value but many don't ever see them play.
Cantillo is another I think we would be crazy to trade "now".
We don't need to be trading guys "down" in our rankings.....let's let those guys build more value first.
Quote from Henry Silvestre on October 2, 2019, 12:26 pmQuote from David Nevin on October 2, 2019, 10:39 amYep....and I also think of it this way.
Our system is so good and so deep that our, say,25th best guy isn't getting the true recognition(value) that he should be worth.
So we need to trade prospects in our top 20 or so to get full value....then over the next two years the guys left will take their place and hopefully gain the value they actually should already have.
Am I making sense?
Lets use Hudson Head as an example...right now he is our 20th rated prospect.
If we trade him now the other team will be getting "our" 20th best guy and we will be getting that type of value.
When obviously if he were in the Mariners system he would probably be a top 5 prospect.
I realize some Scouts know these guys "true" value but many don't ever see them play.
Cantillo is another I think we would be crazy to trade "now".
We don't need to be trading guys "down" in our rankings.....let's let those guys build more value first.
Please dont trade Head.... I want some HEAD in CF circa 2022/23... Please give me some HEAD! lol
Quote from David Nevin on October 2, 2019, 10:39 amYep....and I also think of it this way.
Our system is so good and so deep that our, say,25th best guy isn't getting the true recognition(value) that he should be worth.
So we need to trade prospects in our top 20 or so to get full value....then over the next two years the guys left will take their place and hopefully gain the value they actually should already have.
Am I making sense?
Lets use Hudson Head as an example...right now he is our 20th rated prospect.
If we trade him now the other team will be getting "our" 20th best guy and we will be getting that type of value.
When obviously if he were in the Mariners system he would probably be a top 5 prospect.
I realize some Scouts know these guys "true" value but many don't ever see them play.
Cantillo is another I think we would be crazy to trade "now".
We don't need to be trading guys "down" in our rankings.....let's let those guys build more value first.
Please dont trade Head.... I want some HEAD in CF circa 2022/23... Please give me some HEAD! lol
Quote from JasonE135 on October 2, 2019, 12:40 pmQuote from Henry Silvestre on October 2, 2019, 12:26 pmQuote from David Nevin on October 2, 2019, 10:39 amYep....and I also think of it this way.
Our system is so good and so deep that our, say,25th best guy isn't getting the true recognition(value) that he should be worth.
So we need to trade prospects in our top 20 or so to get full value....then over the next two years the guys left will take their place and hopefully gain the value they actually should already have.
Am I making sense?
Lets use Hudson Head as an example...right now he is our 20th rated prospect.
If we trade him now the other team will be getting "our" 20th best guy and we will be getting that type of value.
When obviously if he were in the Mariners system he would probably be a top 5 prospect.
I realize some Scouts know these guys "true" value but many don't ever see them play.
Cantillo is another I think we would be crazy to trade "now".
We don't need to be trading guys "down" in our rankings.....let's let those guys build more value first.
Please dont trade Head.... I want some HEAD in CF circa 2022/23... Please give me some HEAD! lol
You can go to TJ or Chula Vista and pay for it just like everyone else. I have never been a fan of Head(Hudson) myself. I can't have any faith in him since he has an unfixable mechanical flaw(arm bar) in his swing.
Quote from Henry Silvestre on October 2, 2019, 12:26 pmQuote from David Nevin on October 2, 2019, 10:39 amYep....and I also think of it this way.
Our system is so good and so deep that our, say,25th best guy isn't getting the true recognition(value) that he should be worth.
So we need to trade prospects in our top 20 or so to get full value....then over the next two years the guys left will take their place and hopefully gain the value they actually should already have.
Am I making sense?
Lets use Hudson Head as an example...right now he is our 20th rated prospect.
If we trade him now the other team will be getting "our" 20th best guy and we will be getting that type of value.
When obviously if he were in the Mariners system he would probably be a top 5 prospect.
I realize some Scouts know these guys "true" value but many don't ever see them play.
Cantillo is another I think we would be crazy to trade "now".
We don't need to be trading guys "down" in our rankings.....let's let those guys build more value first.
Please dont trade Head.... I want some HEAD in CF circa 2022/23... Please give me some HEAD! lol
You can go to TJ or Chula Vista and pay for it just like everyone else. I have never been a fan of Head(Hudson) myself. I can't have any faith in him since he has an unfixable mechanical flaw(arm bar) in his swing.
Quote from fenn68 on October 2, 2019, 12:57 pmQuote from David Nevin on October 2, 2019, 10:39 amYep....and I also think of it this way.
Our system is so good and so deep that our, say,25th best guy isn't getting the true recognition(value) that he should be worth.
So we need to trade prospects in our top 20 or so to get full value....then over the next two years the guys left will take their place and hopefully gain the value they actually should already have.
Am I making sense?
Lets use Hudson Head as an example...right now he is our 20th rated prospect.
If we trade him now the other team will be getting "our" 20th best guy and we will be getting that type of value.
When obviously if he were in the Mariners system he would probably be a top 5 prospect.
I realize some Scouts know these guys "true" value but many don't ever see them play.
Cantillo is another I think we would be crazy to trade "now".
We don't need to be trading guys "down" in our rankings.....let's let those guys build more value first.
Basically on the same page .... my first filter is keeping the real blue chip, high ceiling prospects (e.g. Tatis, Paddack, Gore) .... then start dealing ML players who are "marginal" / getting shorter control / getting more costly that are not keys to the future (could be most of the Padres roster) ... then move down to the AAA/AA prospects (if not needed to fill a ML hole in the short run) to get a better trade value since they are more "known" by other teams and should help sooner .... avoid moving any plus prospect in A+ and lower since they will be important to an ongoing sequence of annual ML improvements (as ML players move on) plus other teams don't really value these guys and take them for players who are veteran fillers for the most part. If they are good ... their trade value will increase as the move to AA/AAA.
I guess there are not many Peller types out there who can really harvest ML talent in trades for A ball (or lower) prospects (see Tatis, Paddack, Naylor) ... so they avoid such deals in moving any real quality.
Quote from David Nevin on October 2, 2019, 10:39 amYep....and I also think of it this way.
Our system is so good and so deep that our, say,25th best guy isn't getting the true recognition(value) that he should be worth.
So we need to trade prospects in our top 20 or so to get full value....then over the next two years the guys left will take their place and hopefully gain the value they actually should already have.
Am I making sense?
Lets use Hudson Head as an example...right now he is our 20th rated prospect.
If we trade him now the other team will be getting "our" 20th best guy and we will be getting that type of value.
When obviously if he were in the Mariners system he would probably be a top 5 prospect.
I realize some Scouts know these guys "true" value but many don't ever see them play.
Cantillo is another I think we would be crazy to trade "now".
We don't need to be trading guys "down" in our rankings.....let's let those guys build more value first.
Basically on the same page .... my first filter is keeping the real blue chip, high ceiling prospects (e.g. Tatis, Paddack, Gore) .... then start dealing ML players who are "marginal" / getting shorter control / getting more costly that are not keys to the future (could be most of the Padres roster) ... then move down to the AAA/AA prospects (if not needed to fill a ML hole in the short run) to get a better trade value since they are more "known" by other teams and should help sooner .... avoid moving any plus prospect in A+ and lower since they will be important to an ongoing sequence of annual ML improvements (as ML players move on) plus other teams don't really value these guys and take them for players who are veteran fillers for the most part. If they are good ... their trade value will increase as the move to AA/AAA.
I guess there are not many Peller types out there who can really harvest ML talent in trades for A ball (or lower) prospects (see Tatis, Paddack, Naylor) ... so they avoid such deals in moving any real quality.




