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Regular Season thread.
#541 · June 17, 2019, 10:33 am
Quote from BoosterSD on June 17, 2019, 8:51 amOf course, the best option is finding a way to ship out Myers. I still think there is a money exchange that can be worked out with SEA. Myers and a prospect or two for Leake and Gordon.
Probably not an easy deal to make. Seattle would love to trade both BUT at the same time wants to cut payroll which may be achieved more effectively with other clubs ... especially for Leake. Myers is due more than both combined. Consider a 1/2 2019 and the remainder CASH owed (adjusted for STL contribution for Leake and stripping of the amortized bonuses already paid):
Myers: $1.5 - 20.0 - 20.0 - 20,0 - 1.0 (2023 buyout) = $62.5MM
Leake: $5.5 - 11.0 - 5.0 (buyout of 2021 of $18.0MM) = $21.5MM
Gordon: $6.5 - 13.5 - 1.0 (buyout of 2021 of $14MM) = $21.0MM
From Seattle's perspective they would be ADDING payroll in a strait swap ... $20MM. Does not fit with Seattle's plan and doubt it makes that much sense for the Padres to pay down the difference and give prospects. for effectively 1 1/2 years of those two.
Two other issues: 1) Leake has a full no trade and he would have to agree to go to the Padres and some thought that if he agrees to any deal it would require the team to exercise the 2021 option at $18MM; 2) Gordon has a vesting option for 2021 at $14MM ... easy to avoid by not playing him but not sure that help the team). So, basically there is a risk to the Padres of incurring an additional $32MM less the buyouts of $6MM ...net plus $26MM or slightly more than Myers' contract. Maybe the Padres could justify that (I guess Gordon is an OF experiment .. that failed in Seattle) if they did not give up anything in the way of prospects.
Still hard to see it working with Seattle (if Leake plays ball on waiving his no-trade) who probably could move Leake to a contender who would eat a lot more of his deal (if not all given it is not that much). Not sure anyone wants Gordon at his price.
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More of a chance to deal directly for Leake ... take a good chunk of his remaining deal and not even have to give much in the way of prospects ... sort of follows the Encarnacion / Bruce model with Seattle. Leake is not all that effective anymore (4.14 ERA) but does eat innings and for the Padres that is a good thing.
#542 · June 17, 2019, 10:44 am
Paddack returning seems pretty certain but would not rule out Diaz or Erlin showing up back in starting roles to fill for a while (not a good option ... but these are trying times). Both have been dispatched to AAA and both have been starters and have worked as multi-inning RP. Some stretch-out time in AAA?
Agree that in has to be getting close to L.Allen time but managing that 40 man / 60 day DL ... in the short run ... is tricky if they think Lamet / Castillo will return in the next month and Jankowski is heading to "baseball activities" ... all require an open 40 man to return then add Allen ... not sure easy to see four slots on the 40 man to just "toss away" this early. Maybe some strategic "nursing" to late July (and trade deadline).
#543 · June 17, 2019, 11:55 am
Quote from fenn68 on June 17, 2019, 10:44 amPaddack returning seems pretty certain but would not rule out Diaz or Erlin showing up back in starting roles to fill for a while (not a good option ... but these are trying times). Both have been dispatched to AAA and both have been starters and have worked as multi-inning RP. Some stretch-out time in AAA?
Agree that in has to be getting close to L.Allen time but managing that 40 man / 60 day DL ... in the short run ... is tricky if they think Lamet / Castillo will return in the next month and Jankowski is heading to "baseball activities" ... all require an open 40 man to return then add Allen ... not sure easy to see four slots on the 40 man to just "toss away" this early. Maybe some strategic "nursing" to late July (and trade deadline).
Well prior to ASB, this 3 game series is the last tough stretch. Really just need the one start from a 6th SP, but do desperately need Lucchessi to go 6-7 innings today. After this series: team has off day, gets Paddack back for 3 game series, another off day, 2 games @ Orioles, another off day, then the last 10 game stretch before ASB (= 4 off days). They won't need a 6th SP again until early July, so Logan Allen up/down in the next day or 2 would work for that.
After the break (Lamet back here?) it's: 3 games, off day, 6 games, off day (can navigate not needing a 6th SP just by how you set rotation), then 8 games, off day. So probably need a 6th SP: 6/18, est 7/2 or 3, and est 7/27 or 28. Diaz & Erlin just went down in the RP carousel, so can't be recalled for 6/18. Only other option would be to "burn" a guy like Dillon Overton or Kyle McGrath that could be optioned down, and eventually DFA'd, but this seems pointless...
...because 40-man while tight does have more room than it looks like. If rules allow & Cordero really did have a setback, he's already over 60 days, so that would be my first move (+ L. Allen). Then I would 60-day Adam Warren (Castillo or Lamet). For the next players off 60 day (Castillo/Lamet, Cordero, Jankowski) either have to risk losing guys to DFA OR could 60-day MLB Pedro Avila &/or (more likely) Anderson Espinoza to create 1 or 2 40-man spots. Protects players a while longer, but those 2 would accrue MLB $ (around 1 MM) & (irrelevant) service time. To add the last man here, ASSUMING no other signifcant injuries on roster, you would have to DFA someone is space hasn't been made by other means...
Could briefly have this 60-day list: Lamet, G. Richards, Castillo, Nix, Jankowski, B. Kennedy, Loup, Cordero, A. Warren, P. Avila, Espinoza.
The underlined guys return was outlined, the guys in bold I would simply DFA /non-tender when healthy / offseason. Still leaves 4 guys needing roster spot in offseason BEFORE adding any others. So Pads DO need to "consolidate" their 40-man roster... doesn't have to be "top" of roster like years past (i.e. Yates), and bottom of roster trades will always happen (i.e. Walker Lockett, Alex Dickerson) from DFA's. But I would argue Pads need to look hard at consolidating their MLB SP & OF QUANTITY into an elite SP ("QUALITY") to relieve 40-man pressure, but also simply make team better
#544 · June 17, 2019, 2:02 pm
And the winner is Logan Allen who is being called up to start Tuesday per Cassavell. No word on the required 25 man (likely Margevicius) or 40 man moves.
#545 · June 17, 2019, 2:03 pm
Isn't Lamet scheduled back this week or next?
I read somewhere once he starts his rehab he needs to be back within a certain number of days?
#546 · June 17, 2019, 2:06 pm
Quote from WindsorUK on June 17, 2019, 2:03 pmIsn't Lamet scheduled back this week or next?
I read somewhere once he starts his rehab he needs to be back within a certain number of days?
He has up to 30 days of rehab, BUT since it's Tommy John he's recovering from, he can extend that rehab by 10 more days up to 3 times (i.e. 30 more days) if Padres want. The logical point for him to return would be after the All Star Break. But could be next time team needs a 6th SP (July 2nd-3rd likely)--probably depends on how Logan Allen looks tomorrow-- or of course if another SP hits IL.
#547 · June 17, 2019, 2:14 pm
Thanks Brian.
I think the sooner we see Lamet, the better.
#548 · June 17, 2019, 2:33 pm
Quote from WindsorUK on June 17, 2019, 2:14 pmThanks Brian.
I think the sooner we see Lamet, the better.
LOL, yeah, I'm looking forward to a: Paddack, Strahm, Lamet, Lucchessi, Lauer rotation!
... but Strahm is probably going to be hard capped around 125 IP / 22 starts? Lamet maybe 75 IP / 15 starts?
So I'm OK with waiting till the ASB.
#549 · June 17, 2019, 2:34 pm
IF Allen looks good enough ... a rotation of Lucchesi, Lauer, Strahm, Quantrill, and Allen ... combined with some coming off days and the All-Star break could give some short run "stabilization" and, in turn, allow for more recovery time for Lamet to stretch out and Paddack to get additional downtime.
Lamet does have a minor league option year ... as do all seven of the above ... so the Padres have a lot of flexibility to work them all and "control" some innings load ... clearly for Paddack, Strahm, and Lamet none of whom had a large workload last year.
#550 · June 17, 2019, 2:35 pm
Quote from fenn68 on June 17, 2019, 2:02 pmAnd the winner is Logan Allen who is being called up to start Tuesday per Cassavell. No word on the required 25 man (likely Margevicius) or 40 man moves.
Even though he's named Tuesday's SP, I'm curious to see if the move/s are made today... think with blown out pen it would be prudent. Let him watch a game from the dugout before his start? Margevicius not available, so seems like it makes sense.