Quote from fenn68 on April 29, 2019, 9:05 am

We SHOULD see some improvement in offense after the slow starts from the established veterans. Machado is about 100 points under his career OPS while Hosmer is about 50 points below his career OPS but in the last week seems to have heated up. They are probably the keys to extending the line-up production. That is reason for optimism.

On the other hand, the catching position and 2B are less clear. Hedges with his .646 OPS is running at his career level and Mejia has not done much offensively .... don't see that changing all that much near term while the Padres prioritize defense behind the plate to help the young pitchers. If the hold on Kinsler maybe his current .472 OPS can climb back to his 2018 of .681 (not great but better) or Urias can return a new an improved hitter ... so some upside.

Too early to make any calls but maybe we are getting close to some "tinkering" ... Urias back up would be logical. Also getting to the point were optioning Reyes (who is now getting worked with more breaking balls) consistent ABs in AAA while he tries to work back to his end of 2018 level and calling up a LHH OF might help.

Cordero seems out for an extended time. So maybe a toss up between adding to the 40 man Dickerson or Naylor to do some platoon work in the OF. Renfroe has the reputation of killing LHP and struggling with RHP ... so some strategic value with that combo. They love Naylor's bat .. he has heated up in AAA (although PCL "hot" is relative) ... Padres have no issue with promotions of young prospect if he merits it. Of course I would opt for Dickerson (also doing well in AAA) to utilize his experience which might be better suited at this stage as a PH / platoon player.

We will see if they do anything for the homestead coming up on Friday.

 

Quote from Brian Connelly on April 29, 2019, 11:30 am

Quote from fenn68 on April 28, 2019, 3:04 pm

Quote from Alex Tamayo on April 28, 2019, 12:19 pm

I cant wait for the Lauer and Luchessi's to be gone, and the Gore's and company to be up, it will be nice to have real talent at the top of our starting rotation for once

Well I could see Gore being up early (or to begin) next season if he pitches to his reputation this season ... likely 10 starts in LE then finish the season in AA.

That is sort of the quick rise approach for Paddack, Lauer, Lucchesi, and Margevicius to the ML. None saw AAA and only very limited AA. They were older but not really better plus with only a half season in AA a 20 year old Tatis made the opening day roster.

Richards - Strahm (L) - Paddack - Gore (L) has the potential to be quite an effective starting 4 then a ton of candidates to rise for that #5 slot:

Incumbents: Lauer; Lucchesi; Margevicus;

Injured rebound: Lamet;

Prospects (close): Allen (L); Quantrill;

Prospects (surprise jumps): Morejon (L); Patino; .........

No pre-judgements .... but a lot of players to rise to the top.

Again, the MLB Active roster increasing to 26 next year really appears to perfectly set up the Padres' young &/or major surgery recovery SP options to possibly go with a true 6-man rotation next year.  Here's what I guessed for O.D. 2020 coming into THIS ST:      1)  Richards  2)  Paddack   3)  Lamet   4) Strahm  5) Lucchesi  6)  Logan Allen  "7") Lauer

Now maybe Margevicius "7" with Quantril for the moment "8" ahead of L. Allen who's struggling.  More change to come.  But 3 LHP's projecting 5-7 a year from now is why I felt strongly they should include one of them back in trade for a "major" SP; trading our "#1 or 2" guy this year seems impossible right now, but will not be next year/s.

Plus all the other names you mentioned (and don't forget M. Baez should see next month in AA), and agree Gore is tracking to be up early 2020 vs. late 2020 now.  But a starting staff where the top guys would be especially well served being limited to 27 starts with the extra day/s of rest over unrealistic 33 starts / 200 IP target.

Quote from MrPadre19 on April 29, 2019, 1:41 pm

And this is why we haven't signed Kuechel.

Unless he will take a 1 year deal "after" the draft and we think he could help us to a Wildcard.

 

Quote from MrPadre19 on April 29, 2019, 1:42 pm

Garcia at SS?

I would have Machado at SS and France at 3b.

But what do I know?

 

Quote from fenn68 on April 29, 2019, 2:23 pm

On next year's 26 man roster .... I think in includes a max of 13 pitchers (what they carry now) so the 26th player will be a position player.

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an issue with a 6 man rotation ... unless they are all equally mediocre .... is they would be taking 15+ starts from their best starters (let's say Richards, Paddack, and Strahm) plus another 10+ starts from their 2 second tier starters to give 27 starts to their 6th best pitcher. If the team is a contender ... the quality of each start (and potential win) is critical at the end of the season .. 6 starters would hurt the chances of winning games.

Also, some issue with taking an arm out of the pen to start thus creating even a greater workload for the remaining 7 in the pen ... don't expect even with the extra days rest the starters will go much longer than they do today.

========

companion question ... what is worse in this era for a SP's health (and productivity) ... starting every 5th day for 5-6 innings or going every 6th day for 6-7 innings? Also consider the stats that show the reduced success that "3rd time though the order" and that RP coming in early are a better course to win. (note that this applies to the masses with the handful of elites a different story).

Maybe we should go with 4 starters going 5 innings and more RP throwing their arms out?

Quote from fenn68 on April 29, 2019, 2:29 pm

Quote from David Nevin on April 29, 2019, 1:42 pm

Garcia at SS?

I would have Machado at SS and France at 3b.

But what do I know?

 

I get the sense that the Padres may have committed to Machado to play 3B and are not going to mess with that for a day by day filler. I guess that gives them a first hand view of Garcia's at SS (although probably have a pretty good read) to determine if they need to make a future move to backfill (even day by day) for Tatis with someone other than Urias.

More surprised they did not insert Myers to play SS 🙂

Quote from Brian Connelly on April 29, 2019, 3:28 pm

Quote from dusty on April 29, 2019, 7:28 am

Man, Padres are doing better than expected, and while adding a solid starter would surely help, I really feel like they are really lacking that one extra quality hitter in the lineup to really give the team that put the pedal to the floor mentality. I feel like that could really separate them from the middle of the pack and really turn at least two more losses into wins. They could have had two big time road series sweeps already against the cardinals and the nationals and sitting at 18-10 tied with the dodgers. If only they just stuck with Urias and he took off or if they could get better production from one of the regulars this team would be really really tough to beat right now

Well, the issue isn't really a new one...  Pads MLB rank:

• OBP:  .284  = 27th.   Would have to improve 10 points just to get to 26th.  Ahead of only SF, Cincy, Miami... the 3 worst NL teams.
• BA:  .222 = 27th.  "Only" 5 points behind Miami.  Cleveland with no OF & no Lindor joins SF & Cincy @ bottom
• BB:  74 = tied 27th.  For comparison, #1 = LAD @ 131
• K:  268 = 25th.   But...
• HR:  40 = 11th.  Sounds great, but not high enough for being one of the worst K teams. The 2 teams with highest K's are Seattle (307) & Milwaukee (282).  They are #1 (Seattle-59) and #2 (Mil-54) in HR.  Pads have only 5-15% fewer K's, but 33-50% fewer HR than Mil & Seattle respectively.
• OPS:  .690 = 23rd.  Obviously not where it should be if 11th in HR.

Pads are living & dying by the timely HR.  The entire "offense" is each batter trying to hit a HR vs. collectively working as 1 unit to be patient, take what's there, and drive SP pitch count up & get into bullpen sooner, which would actually lead to more HR.

As a Portland Trail Blazer fan, Pads offense reminds me of Oklahoma City Thunder's offense:  No overall plan; just reliant on Westbrook & Paul George being athletic & scoring.  Didn't work for OKC.  Hasn't worked for Pads for the last 5 years; but HAS "worked" early in season with timely HR.  Pads need to take professional MLB AB with eye on the bigger picture/long game.  Get into bullpen on 1st game of 3-4 game series, etc.

Quote from Brian Connelly on April 29, 2019, 4:23 pm

Quote from dusty on April 29, 2019, 7:28 am

Man, Padres are doing better than expected, and while adding a solid starter would surely help, I really feel like they are really lacking that one extra quality hitter in the lineup to really give the team that put the pedal to the floor mentality. I feel like that could really separate them from the middle of the pack and really turn at least two more losses into wins. They could have had two big time road series sweeps already against the cardinals and the nationals and sitting at 18-10 tied with the dodgers. If only they just stuck with Urias and he took off or if they could get better production from one of the regulars this team would be really really tough to beat right now

FENN:  We SHOULD see some improvement in offense after the slow starts from the established veterans. Machado is about 100 points under his career OPS while Hosmer is about 50 points below his career OPS but in the last week seems to have heated up. They are probably the keys to extending the line-up production. That is reason for optimism.

Tatis, Jr. has been spectacular; exceeding all expectations.  Don't think it's fair to expect a .300/.360/.550 line all year for him!  Others need to help carry the load!

Machado's OBP is right in line with career.  His slug is exactly 100 points < career.  Welcome to Petco/NL West.  The gap will shrink some, but definitely not all.

Hosmer's "split" is more even:  about 25 points below career BA, OBP, and Slug.  Feels like he's coming around, but don't know if he can ever get back to approaching 2017 #'s, even with this lineup.

Myers is +25 pts Slug, but -25 pts OBP to career.  Probably in tolerance range.

Renfroe is about 10 points > career BA & OBP, but his slug is +100 points.

Reyes about 75 pts < last year's BA & OBP.  Slug is close.  Previously documented some bad BABIP luck.

Margot is rapidly headed towards the short side of a platoon with the 1st LH OF back; it's just utterly inexcusable that Garcia has 4 BB in 26 PA, even Franchy Cordero 4 BB in 19 PA, and Margot with his speed has .... 1 BB in 78 PA.  And 1 stolen base.   Drives me Bat%*$^ crazy when guys like Margot & Spangenberg can't figure out how to use their best tools & provide value.

It's actually good news that C & 2B have been so dismal @ .225-.235 OBP collectively at both positions, that there's literally no where to go but up.  I'll save my rant about Hedges (below his career .209/.258 Avg...) for a separate post.   But I do think Urias ultimately will prove to be critically important to the Pads; they just have to have a patient "pitch-eater" high OBP guy #1 or 2 in the order... and I think he will ultimately succeed.

The timeshare at both C and 2B (brought on by Cordero's injury) really hasn't worked, and think Andy Green waited too long to give Garcia's patient LH bat some starts due to both Urias & Kinsler being there.

Quote from Brian Connelly on April 29, 2019, 4:42 pm

Quote from fenn68 on April 28, 2019, 2:52 pm

Quote from David Nevin on April 28, 2019, 2:35 pm

How many pop up outs has Kinsler made this year?

20?

 

Saw a comment by Kevin Acee (not always reliable but covers the Padres for the SDUT) ... his pure speculation or was there some basis from noise from the Padres? Simply Kinsler may be in his last days with the Padres ... his offensive production is THAT bad and apparently they may be willing to eat the 2 year guaranteed contract.

Padres do want to win .... Garcia is "serviceable" at 2B with more offense and a LHH .... France can fill in an emergency and has shown he can make ML contact and work the count .... Urias is on track for a return (crushing it in the PCL ... albeit in EP and LV) and not sure he really is "developing" any more in AAA. Team needs offense, could make sense. When the Padres return on May 3rd?

Since he was signed before Machado and before the Padres had any sense of Tatis (or really Urias) making the early season roster ... probably a necessary gamble on his at least repeating his 2018 .... just has not turned out that way.

Wow.  Could see it happening, but immediately thought of Headley & looked at his line.

Kinsler .139/.218/.253 in 87 PA.  But 5 XBH incl 2 HR + 8 BB.

Headley  .115/.233/.135 in 58 PA.  Only 1 XBH (2B).

Similar, but Headley's bat speed/power was just so clearly gone.  Kinsler still at least showing a little pop.  Other big difference was Christian Villanueva had that 3 HR game & then was rookie or player of month in April... i.e. heir apparent (not!) was already on roster & broke through in April.  Urias hasn't done that, so seems more likely Kinsler sticks around at least till Urias gets established?

The timeshare thing with Urias didn't work for either guy, but Kinsler has to be on an extremely short leash now as starter.  Till Mid-May?  Maybe even upcoming homestand to bring Urias back?