Quote from MrPadre19 on September 9, 2020, 12:31 pm

Thinking I'd also like to see Morejon stretched back out next Spring and possibly "he" taking the #5 spot if Gore/Patino not deemed ready.

Or give him the spot vacated by Richards.

I am really liking the way Morejon has bounced back after a rough start.....he needs to be a starter.

 

Quote from Brian Connelly on September 9, 2020, 1:20 pm

Quote from MrPadre19 on September 9, 2020, 12:31 pm

Thinking I'd also like to see Morejon stretched back out next Spring and possibly "he" taking the #5 spot if Gore/Patino not deemed ready.

Or give him the spot vacated by Richards.

I am really liking the way Morejon has bounced back after a rough start.....he needs to be a starter.

 

Agree 100%.   Gore, Patino, Morejon, Weathers, Baez, Wilcox, Lange, (eventually) Reggie Lawson all need to work as SP in Minors to help make up for none this year.   I've remained relatively high on Baez since his "breakout" in Ft. Wayne years ago, but based on his age, if he's really superceded by the 1st 4 ability-wise, I might consider a permanent shift to pen during 2021, but not on opening day.   Near certainty the depth will be needed & guys on 40-man + Gore will log a lot of MLB innings in 2021.

Quote from fenn68 on September 9, 2020, 1:51 pm

Quote from Brian Connelly on September 9, 2020, 1:20 pm

Quote from MrPadre19 on September 9, 2020, 12:31 pm

Thinking I'd also like to see Morejon stretched back out next Spring and possibly "he" taking the #5 spot if Gore/Patino not deemed ready.

Or give him the spot vacated by Richards.

I am really liking the way Morejon has bounced back after a rough start.....he needs to be a starter.

 

Agree 100%.   Gore, Patino, Morejon, Weathers, Baez, Wilcox, Lange, (eventually) Reggie Lawson all need to work as SP in Minors to help make up for none this year.   I've remained relatively high on Baez since his "breakout" in Ft. Wayne years ago, but based on his age, if he's really superceded by the 1st 4 ability-wise, I might consider a permanent shift to pen during 2021, but not on opening day.   Near certainty the depth will be needed & guys on 40-man + Gore will log a lot of MLB innings in 2021.

Agree ... but to a point. They should all be worked to become a SP but at some point they are not really developing much in the minors and work in the ML as a RP can enhance their ML conversion to a ML SP. Forgot the specifics but that was the development plan of one of the successful organizations a number of years ago. ML pen until the SP slot opens.

Plus, if they are the best ML option for the pen and winning ML games is the main objective ... they need to be up.

ST may tell a lot ... but have to think one of Gore, Patino, or Morejon gets Richards’ starting slot. So, the other two starting (with probably Baez) in the minors. The others are still a bit away. If they are needed for the pen ... they will get the call.

Quote from Brian Connelly on September 9, 2020, 2:10 pm

I know we're all so used to Preller's wheeling/dealing that it's hard to consider anything else.  And yes, there are "too many" RP's... but not for the 40-man.  Could carry them all the way through ST & deal some then to rebuild prospect depth  (yes, position players!).  Always in demand.

But I would suggest our MLB & top 2 levels of Minors position player depth is SO thin, that this is not the route to go with plugging the holes around the edges the Padres ship may have.  I'd go so far as to say that besides our top 4 prospects, that Hassell, Marcano (likely to be added to 40-man), and even Blake Hunt &  Ona are "no trade"; b/c we just don't have very many good position players in system now with:  Trammell, Arias, O. Miller, Olivares, Potts, & J. Rosario traded.  (Plus  PTBNLs for Mateo & others? still pending).

I think Preller excels at knowing where the value is & isn't.  The value THIS deadline was being willing to deal a Top 100 prospect (Trammell) & close to it (Arias) when no one else would b/c of the lack of urgency for playoff position-especially in AL- and (even more) economic uncertainty over 2021 season.  Pretty easy to forecast how hard it will be to move large MLB contracts in trade this offseason.  So value this offseason?  It's going to be the 2nd & 3rd tier FA's & Non-Tenders.  Some undetermined but large # of teams are going to be cutting salary, not standing pat or adding it.  For Padres primary need of Bench, this should really create opportunity to get better MLB players for less $ than in past years.

Doesn't hurt that SD is now easily one of the most desirable destinations in baseball.  If you're going to take it on the chin for a year during (hopefully) tail end of Pandemic & awaiting a new CBA agreement, why not do it on a really good team in Slam Diego?

Quote from Randy Manese on September 9, 2020, 2:23 pm

Thanks for putting up with my prior posts.  Now, let's get serious about what actually might happen given the context of a 26 man roster.  Our assets should be the wealth of potential starting and relief pitchers in the system.  Assuming that we don't re-sign Richards (probably a "no" because of the need to spend money elsewhere), we still have Clevinger, Lamet, Paddack, Davies, Morejon, Patino, Gore, Lucchesi and possibly Weathers in competition for a SP spot.  That 9 serious candidates - 5 right and 4 left - although Lucchesi (because of ineffectiveness) and Davies (because of pending FA) have to be considered as limiting our flexibility.  Best case scenario is that the first 5 perform well and that Patino, Gore and Weathers start at AA or AAA and at least one be ready to come in at the July trading deadline so we can get something for Davies (unless we give him a contract extension next year).  Lucchesi and Patino are fallback starters in case Morejon falters or is injured, which has happened far too often in his history.  Not too much behind them, maybe Bachar or stretch out Baez or a comeback by Nix, but a lot of good arms at the lower level that could move up quickly.  Lawson will have to be protected from Rule 5 but not ready for at least 1 more year, probably 2.

RP are another story because there literally are a ton of arms, many with no options left, on the current roster.  Assuming Rosenthal is gone and Yates is not re-signed, we still have Pomeranz(L), Pagan, Strahm (L), Johnson, Perdomo, Baez, Altavilla, Adams, Guerra, Hill(L), T Williams, Bednar, Stammen, Castillo(L), Wingenter and Espinoza.  Don't forget Avila, Diaz, S Wilson or even Evan Miller as other possibilities for depth? If you have to get down to 7 or 8 and have a few in the minors, then we obviously have some trading material available or otherwise drop a few of these guys. Who are the long men and which ones are relegated to short relief?  Long - Strahm, Perdomo, Baez and possibly Espinoza (or Avila or Diaz).  Perdomo probably too expensive to keep with anticipated salary of over 1M.  Short - Pomeranz, Pagan, Johnson, Altavilla, Adams, Guerra, Hill, Williams, Bednar, Stammen, Castillo and Wingenter.  If we keep Strahm and Baez as our long men, then the final 6 short men are Pomeranz(L), Pagan, Adams, Guerra, Hill(L) and Stammen over Williams/Altavilla only because we can't get rid of Stammen.  I start Espinoza and Castillo in the high minors as early call-ups along with Bednar, Wingenter, Diaz or Avila and trade Johnson and two of the three (Stammen, Williams and Altavilla) with the slim possibility that we can pawn of Stammen on somebody (thereby saving Williams or Altavilla) - more likely release him unless he retires.  Of course, Strahm and Baez could also be short men.  Guerra and Stammen impact the flexibility of putting together the most ready staff.  Lot of quality RP hit FA this year, so there will be many teams looking for cheaper pitchers with the potential to be a solid piece in the bullpen.

Given the above assets and not trading Myers, don't think we'll add another SP or RP unless the deal is too good to pass up.  We should be able to get a 4th or 5th OF or back-up INF by trading from our excess pitching depth although limited by several of them having lack of options (but that's the gaining teams' problem, not ours).

 

 

 

 

Quote from JasonE135 on September 9, 2020, 2:39 pm

Quote from fenn68 on September 9, 2020, 1:51 pm

Quote from Brian Connelly on September 9, 2020, 1:20 pm

Quote from MrPadre19 on September 9, 2020, 12:31 pm

Thinking I'd also like to see Morejon stretched back out next Spring and possibly "he" taking the #5 spot if Gore/Patino not deemed ready.

Or give him the spot vacated by Richards.

I am really liking the way Morejon has bounced back after a rough start.....he needs to be a starter.

 

Agree 100%.   Gore, Patino, Morejon, Weathers, Baez, Wilcox, Lange, (eventually) Reggie Lawson all need to work as SP in Minors to help make up for none this year.   I've remained relatively high on Baez since his "breakout" in Ft. Wayne years ago, but based on his age, if he's really superceded by the 1st 4 ability-wise, I might consider a permanent shift to pen during 2021, but not on opening day.   Near certainty the depth will be needed & guys on 40-man + Gore will log a lot of MLB innings in 2021.

Agree ... but to a point. They should all be worked to become a SP but at some point they are not really developing much in the minors and work in the ML as a RP can enhance their ML conversion to a ML SP. Forgot the specifics but that was the development plan of one of the successful organizations a number of years ago. ML pen until the SP slot opens.

Plus, if they are the best ML option for the pen and winning ML games is the main objective ... they need to be up.

ST may tell a lot ... but have to think one of Gore, Patino, or Morejon gets Richards’ starting slot. So, the other two starting (with probably Baez) in the minors. The others are still a bit away. If they are needed for the pen ... they will get the call.

I would not be at all surprised to see Preller sign a low cost SP or 2 this offseason if we lose Richards. It is almost unheard of for any team to get through a full season without any injuries to their SPs. Competitive teams have extras just in case. Maybe not high quality but reliable and rubber-armed.

We will have Morejon, Patino and Gore all in competition for the #5 spot next year. I see Baez as a reliever. None are proven. I see the Padres starting next year with Lucchesi as the #5 unless one of the youngsters forcibly takes it from him. I mean Quantrill outpitched him in both spring training and summer camp yet Lucchesi still kept his rotation spot. I don't see the Padres just giving that spot to any of the kids. They will have to take it.

Quote from Brian Connelly on September 9, 2020, 4:18 pm

I have to get off these boards!   One last creative "food for thought" idea:  What about deferring some 2021 salary forward to lower payroll in what is going to be an extremely challenging year financially for the Padres.

Fowler in the past has sometimes irritated me, but he's a straight shooter.  If he says they are losing >100MM "cash on cash" despite prorated Player pay of "only" around 64 MM, I believe him.  SO many other costs:  Managers, Front office, scouting, admin, marketing, facilities, coaches, benefits, Minors players & staff, etc.  This is overly simplistic, but a full season/payroll of 81 home games at even 50% average capacity crowds --seems optimistic--vs. 30 home games at 0% capacity is actually even worse:  It's net 41 home games at 0% capacity... with an additional 80+/- MM in salaries!

But FINALLY have an excellent team.  How to proceed without slash & burn payroll?  Push some out of the less than 100% fan attendance year forward.  UNFORTUNATELY, this is really complicated by the upcoming CBA negotiations end of 2021.  There's a very real possibility THAT season is delayed due to negotiations leading to lockout or strike for some of season.  So players will NOT want to push 2021 $ (especially after taking big hit this year) into 2022.   Here's my proposals.  Could do any/all.

I've already proposed Stammen & Pierce Johnson getting traded.  That leaves the "big 3" + Pomeranz.

• Pomeranz:   Defer 1 MM salary in'21 AND '22 to either '23 Salary or add to his existing signing bonus.  The "benefit" to Pom (and all 3 below) is pushing 1 MM from '22 when he might not get some of it into a year or signing bonus where he will.  Could also or instead adjust when his signing bonus is paid out (earlier or later).
• Machado:  Defer 6 MM salary in '21 AND 3 MM in '22; add 10 MM to '23 Salary.  Gains 1 MM net.  Big increase is year Myers highly likely to be bought out & Hosmer (see below) either FA or lower salary.
• Hosmer:  Defer 3 MM salary in '21 AND 2 MM in '22; add to '23 Salary + 2 MM; As a PLAYER OPTION for 2023 (@20 MM now) against 5 MM buyout.  Existing player opt out moves up 1 year to: 2024 (incl '25).  "Risky" for Pads.  Hosmer  can gain +2MM, but would push his FA decision out 1 year.  LEAST likely of 4, since hardest to incentivize Hosmer.  Would revolve more around Hosmer wanting to stay put in San Diego & Pads belief in his 2020 #'s.
• Myers:  Defer 1-2 MM salary in '21 AND '22; add to BOTH his buyout (now: 3-5 MM) and SALARY (now: 22-24 MM) CLUB OPTION + 10% of amount deferred (200 - 400K).

No idea if any of these are do-able; but seems logical if real or at least “possible” benefit to player is creating win-win.

Could theoretically lower MLB Payroll:   up to 12 MM in 2021, and up to 8 MM in 2022, in exchange for increasing payroll by up to 23 MM in 2023; includes an additional year of Hosmer.

Quote from Randy Manese on September 9, 2020, 10:46 pm

Very creative but you'd probably have to redo all the contracts listed above which I doubt would happen.   If we have some semblance of fan attendance, it could grow after March/April if we have a vaccine in place; MLB might want to think about moving opening day to a later date and again shortening the season by a month or so; thereby saving some player salary money.   Don't know if that would offset any attendance receipts.  The other thing going for the Padres is that they are team getting national attention, so probably more Padres' gear/memorabilia will be sold which might help a little bit.   It is expected that the minor league teams will be reduced although salaries might go up; don't know the financial impact of this but it would seem to save the parent team money.  We have all that in the midst of a new CBA being negotiated.

Given the above, my thoughts on our FA's is to ask them to give us the last shot at matching their best offer.  I'm guessing we come away with at least one maybe two of them of the five.  As for those heading to arbitration, there are 11 of them, including 60% of our rotation, that we will have to pay more and some we won't be able to afford.  We pay Pham, Davies, Clevinger, Lamet, Pagan and Strahm (the latter two may be trade bait) and don't plan to pay Perdomo, Lucchesi, Garcia, Altavilla and Almonte unless some money is freed up somewhere else.  It will depend on which of the FA, if any, will re-sign with us and what options Preller is able to develop on the trade front.  I think we are in for an interesting off-season as we try to further fine-tune a play-off roster team.

Quote from Randy Manese on September 14, 2020, 2:35 pm

Admittedly, we are a little thin in position players at the upper levels of the minors.  Let's focus on some OF's.  I'm thinking about two highly drafted players that have not met expectations as possible low cost gets - Mickey Moniak (Phil) and Blake Rutherford (White Sox).  They would have to be protected on the 40 man but I think we can find room for at least one if we can make a trade. Also, Fangraphs has Allen Cordoba with two more options left, so I'd also bring him up to AAA.  I'm guessing we DFA Allen, who then re-joins the team in El Paso.  Gettys likely will sign elsewhere as a FA but we might be able to hang on to Ivan Castillo, who can also play OF.  Kohlwey and Benson are older guys in the system who could be brought in for a look.   If you want to get into a more serious trade, then possibly Marsh or Adams from the Angels (for AAA) or even current major leaguers Solak (Tex) or Clint Frazier (NYY) who would replace Profar (if he doesn't re-sign) or Mateo as our 4th OF in the majors.  They'll probably be a lot of major/minor league FA available, like Almonte, but I'd still like to try to at least get somebody with a little upside.