Quote from fenn68 on September 14, 2020, 4:23 pm

Quote from Randy Manese on September 14, 2020, 2:39 pm

Forgot to mention Ona, who is still in the mix, if not traded.  Abrams probably won't start higher than AA, I'm thinking Hi A, but a quick promotion to AA if all goes well; guessing he'll get some serious time in CF.

Depends on how he showed at the alternate site (and probably winter instructs) ... but A+ does seem like the starting point in 2021 (no higher) and go from there.

Ona like will be around in AAA.

Quote from fenn68 on September 14, 2020, 4:34 pm

Quote from Randy Manese on September 14, 2020, 2:35 pm

Admittedly, we are a little thin in position players at the upper levels of the minors.  Let's focus on some OF's.  I'm thinking about two highly drafted players that have not met expectations as possible low cost gets - Mickey Moniak (Phil) and Blake Rutherford (White Sox).  They would have to be protected on the 40 man but I think we can find room for at least one if we can make a trade. Also, Fangraphs has Allen Cordoba with two more options left, so I'd also bring him up to AAA.  I'm guessing we DFA Allen, who then re-joins the team in El Paso.  Gettys likely will sign elsewhere as a FA but we might be able to hang on to Ivan Castillo, who can also play OF.  Kohlwey and Benson are older guys in the system who could be brought in for a look.   If you want to get into a more serious trade, then possibly Marsh or Adams from the Angels (for AAA) or even current major leaguers Solak (Tex) or Clint Frazier (NYY) who would replace Profar (if he doesn't re-sign) or Mateo as our 4th OF in the majors.  They'll probably be a lot of major/minor league FA available, like Almonte, but I'd still like to try to at least get somebody with a little upside.

Padres will probably have to address OF at three levels ... a legit #4 for the ML club (that could be Profar) ... a legit call-up piece or two as veterans but non-roster (sort of in the Almonte / Lagares mold) ... and then some veteran minor leaguers to just fill out the rosters in both AAA/AA.

Then an outside chance they seize on a prospect via trade ... but not sure they have (or are willing to deal) from their reduced prospect pool but could dangle one of the out of option RP (always in demand) and get a a decent piece back (but probably not the quality of Marsh or Adams).

40 man will have lots of flexibility ... so could go a lot of ways. Should note the INF has some needs too in AAA/AA.

Given 2020 ... aging internal prospects that may be FA or just call it quits may not be retuning to the Padres system.

Quote from fenn68 on September 15, 2020, 7:42 am

Maybe not a NEED for a bench upgrade for a RHH but might be a good strategy to even further balance the team vs. LHP. Looked at the wRC+ splits for the 2019-2020 period for the expected returning roster ... vs L / vs R:

105 / 130 ... Nola

67 / 86 .... Mejia

62 / 111 ... Hosmer

54 / 136 ... Moreland

83 / 183 ... Cronenworth

52 / 100 ... Garcia

180 / 145 ... Tatis

171 / 102 ... Machado

160 /   97 ... Pham

93 / 114 ... Grisham

152 / 101 ... Myers

115 /   83 ... Profar (if resigned)

=====

Clearly a pretty strong long line-up against RHP but some soft spots vs. LHP (especially with Hosmer at 1B and no effective DH vs. LHP in the mix). To be clear, that line-up vs LHP is still potent but could be better.

Resigning Profar would help DH ... maybe gamble that Ona or Campusano is ready for steady ML work in 2021 ... not going to bet on Mateo or Allen.

Quote from Randy Manese on September 15, 2020, 9:59 am

It seems Profar has played himself into a good contract with the Padres for next season as a valuable piece of the line-up/bench strength.  His teammates really seem to love his style of play and persona and Tingler has favored him even at the beginning when he was struggling mightily.  I think he gets at least 7 M as a base, maybe defer some of that beyond next year, which might squeeze out Garcia and Moreland depending upon how tight the money is.  I'm still looking for a RH hitting OF/DH with some upside since Pham will be in his FA year.  Abrams is the closest thing we have to an OF coming up and he hits LH.  Don't believe Ona is ready for semi-fulltime duty and needs reps at AAA to establish upper level hitting history; won't develop sitting on the bench.

Quote from Brian Connelly on September 15, 2020, 11:20 am

54 / 136 ... Moreland

83 / 183 ... Cronenworth

52 / 100 ... Garcia

This to me shows why Garcia won't be back.  Don't need his 100 vs RHP when you have JC @ 183 (probably not sustainable, but 25% regression still = 137!), and Moreland is a better version of Garcia with WAY more power to DH vs RHP.  Even LESS likely to return if Profar does, because GG would never see field.

Profar would be ideal BECAUSE he hits LHP better; but where is he going to play?  He basically would "always" be in the lineup at either DH/2B/1B vs. LHP, plus probably some time in LF to spell Pham vs RHP (Pham will always be in vs LHP), BUT is that enough playing time to keep Profar happy based on the year he's having in a contract season?

It will come down to this:  Would Profar rather be a part of an extremely good team but play less & for possibly less $, OR would he rather start & play more for more $ on a less good team?   I hope I'm wrong, but I'm pretty sure I know the answer!

 

Quote from Brian Connelly on September 15, 2020, 11:22 am

Quote from Randy Manese on September 15, 2020, 9:59 am

It seems Profar has played himself into a good contract with the Padres for next season as a valuable piece of the line-up/bench strength.  His teammates really seem to love his style of play and persona and Tingler has favored him even at the beginning when he was struggling mightily.  I think he gets at least 7 M as a base, maybe defer some of that beyond next year, which might squeeze out Garcia and Moreland depending upon how tight the money is.  I'm still looking for a RH hitting OF/DH with some upside since Pham will be in his FA year.  Abrams is the closest thing we have to an OF coming up and he hits LH.  Don't believe Ona is ready for semi-fulltime duty and needs reps at AAA to establish upper level hitting history; won't develop sitting on the bench.

Optimist!  Good contract... yes.  With Padres.... ???

Quote from fenn68 on September 15, 2020, 11:37 am

Quote from Brian Connelly on September 15, 2020, 11:20 am

54 / 136 ... Moreland

83 / 183 ... Cronenworth

52 / 100 ... Garcia

This to me shows why Garcia won't be back.  Don't need his 100 vs RHP when you have JC @ 183 (probably not sustainable, but 25% regression still = 137!), and Moreland is a better version of Garcia with WAY more power to DH vs RHP.  Even LESS likely to return if Profar does, because GG would never see field.

Profar would be ideal BECAUSE he hits LHP better; but where is he going to play?  He basically would "always" be in the lineup at either DH/2B/1B vs. LHP, plus probably some time in LF to spell Pham vs RHP (Pham will always be in vs LHP), BUT is that enough playing time to keep Profar happy based on the year he's having in a contract season?

It will come down to this:  Would Profar rather be a part of an extremely good team but play less & for possibly less $, OR would he rather start & play more for more $ on a less good team?   I hope I'm wrong, but I'm pretty sure I know the answer!

 

Unless his alternative is play more on a lesser team for LESS money and shorter guarantee?

I really like what Profar brings to this team ... but he is a "super utility" for any team and not a regular LF or 2B given his stats ... and what his price tag should be ... not sure that a ton of teams are going to be beating his agent's door down.

I am guessing (if they have the money) ... the Padres put a package on the table that matches (or exceeds) any competing bids ... he really does fit the Padres needs for the next couple of years.

Quote from fenn68 on September 15, 2020, 11:48 am

If they resign Profar ... Garcia may be on the bubble but not until they settle the mix of all the back-up players ... so not so quick to drop him.

Five to fill:

1. back-up catcher: Mejia or Campusano
2. LHH DH: Moreland
3. Super Utility: Profar
4. bench OF (who can play CF): ?
5. bench INF (who can play all the slots)?

Mateo (can't hit) fills #4/#5 defensively but a non factor (maybe liability) if he really needs to play

Ona (ready?) and only a corner OF / DH

Mejia / Campusano creates a cluster at C/DH/1B but does little to help INF/OF

So until two better options surface ... and considering a 162 games schedule where bench will be important ... Garcia may stick (only one more year to FA). Profar can do a lot ... just not all at once.

First come up with the upgrade then move Garcia and/or Mateo.

Quote from BoosterSD on September 15, 2020, 11:51 am

I see Profar returning to SD for a reasonable contract; something around 3 years for $15-18M, and co-existing with Pham for the 2021 season. I see an OF of Profar, Grisham, Myers, and then Pham will DH against LHP, and some starts in LF against RHP that he has a good history against, while Moreland is the RHSP DH, which I think is here to stay IMO. You could also have Profar, start at 1B versus a really tough LHSP to give Hosmer a rest that day.

Then, after Pham reaches FA after 2021, look for Grisham to slide to LF, and then Abrams taking over CF, with Profar still rolling around in 2022 & 2023 as the super sub.